GPS and GNSS have changed the world. Of that there can be no doubt. But in terms of sheer change, both qualitative and quantitative — we ain’t seen nothing yet.
We now witness the creation of an industry. This will be very disruptive. We’ve had change instituted by GNSS; we know what that looks like. We haven’t yet seen a true revolution.This is something entirely new, and there are many things about which we don’t yet have a clue .
What happens to that great American institution, the private car? The relationship between the individual and its four-wheeled extension?
And on the industrial side, do automakers disappear as OEMs — do they become Tier 1 suppliers to Google, Uber and Lyft?
Because of the massive impact of this particular rollout of GNSS-enabled capabilities, I am devoting this issue of the GNSS Design & Test e-newsletter to it, even though it is not in itself a system in space. It is the most radical transformation of life on Earth we have seen, driven by our systems in space.
The following are notes jotted during the Driverless Conference, March 23 in San Francisco.
“In the early 90s, when I was part of a government ride-sharing initiative, we used to talk about these new portable devices bringing data communication into … wherever we go. Now they’re here, and they’re well established. Very soon, this is going to change things, and enable many of the things we’ve only talked and dreamed about so far.” Thus spoke Steve Wollenberg of Automatiks, opening the conference.
“We’re at the confluence of great technological developments. We’re seeing great acceleration of all of them.”
Virtually all the speakers, all these driverless enthusiasts, really love cars. Some own up to collecting them, having multiples in their home garage(s). A bit wistfully, Wollenberg foresaw the new control technology taking over public roadways. “In ten years, racetracks may be the only place where you’re allowed to drive your own vehicle.”
Ride Share. “Four years is the entire lifetime of the ridesharing industry,” said Emily Castor of Lyft, who by virtue of her tenure there for that period, can be termed an industry veteran.
“We’ve seen a full-about turn in the regulatory environment. We see ride-sharing as the stepping stone to a world in which people no longer drive vehicles. Getting an autonomous vehicle on demand through a shared network will be much easier and cheaper than owning a private vehicle.”
Lyft talked with General Motors last year, and found a shared vision of shared use.
Amitai Bin-Nun from Securing America’s Future Energy (SAFE), a non-partisan advocacy organization with business leadership, introduced his organization’s broad mission: reducing U.S. petroleum dependence. Instability in parts of the world is fueled by petroleum dependence.
“This is a hard process. It takes a long time to overturn an established system.” A key obstacle is the lack of compelling new consumer experience, currently. Using connected and autonomous vehicles in a ride-sharing network is an opportunity to get this new experience, and drive the transformative process. Re-order the transportation system.
Mariel Devisa of Travelers Insurance announced that Travelers has launched a ride-share insurance product, live now in 16 states.
In two fairly conservative industries — automotive and insurance — with long-established partners and practices, the efforts to move and change are, frankly, surprising and faster than anticipated, according to moderator Wollenberg. “It’s a fun time.”
Freight and Fleets. Steve Boyd of Peloton made the case that trucking fleets can serve a critical role in pushing the technology forward, because some segments of the transportation industry move faster than others. Getting state approvals without having to go federal is the route pursued now, in terms of full-scale roadtesting of autonomous driving. That will enable early adoption heading into commercial pathways: freight-truck platooning and drafting. Volvo, Intel, Nokia, Denso, UPS and a number of other companies are closely involved.
Boyd announced a set of fleet trials this year, starting in Texas, “a very truck-friendly state.” Legislative approval for trials has passed or is pending in several other states, as many as a dozen. Prospective customers are already lined up in the freight space.
In Europe, an April 6 EU Platooning Challenge will take place in Rotterdam. The Netherlands is leading the EU in the current cycle to approve truck platooning by early 2018.
There’s “a platooning gap” developing between the U.S. and Europe, according to Boyd. Silicon Valley may lead on the technology, but if this is not matched by activity on the regulatory side, it will lose out to other areas that aggressively pursue approvals as well as technology.
Traditionally, the automotive and trucking OEM industries have been very competitive, but now they are seeing the necessity to collaborate to push the policy side forward. This is happening in the insurance industry, too. Competition will certainly still be there, but to enable vehicle-to-vehicle communication a broad measure of collaboration will be necessary.
The road environment today is very imperfect, with many thousands of fatalities and countless more serious injuries. Trucks drive too close together. Highway safety needs innovation and regulatory change in order to improve.
The Long Vision. An autonomous car can’t count on the ability of the driver to retake control of the vehicle in 5 or 10 seconds. So the vehicle needs to be able to take care of itself — fully. Therefore, an evolutionary approach to installing autonomous capabilities may not work.
Some initiatives, however, continue to bring services into the vehicle one by one, gradually. How engaged will the driver be, and in what timeframe? There’s debate, and a shift in thinking may currently be underway.
Traditionally, a 5- to 7-year product cycle in automotive starts when new features are introduced in upmarket vehicles. Examples: adaptive cruise control (to follow the car in front of you at a set distance), lane-keeping assistance. Gradually, these new features are installed in lower price-point models until they become standard throughout the line. With multiple products and product cycles, it will thus take multiple decades. 220 million vehicles are owned by households. An integrative approach to autonomy will take a long, long time.
There is a rising tide for autonomy may take a different approach: autonomy first, that is, full autonomy will take over the vehicle — and as many vehicles as possible.
(Something that no one has mentioned but I can’t help thinking: Given the longstanding and extremely virulent controversy in this country over private gun ownership… What does this bode for something shaping up as a massive social, structural change, not just a new technological wrinkle? What is more American than a gun? A car.
If you thought the Internet, or smartphones, or for heavensakes even GPS/GNSS have radically altered the world — again, we ain’t seen nothin’ yet.)
