provide a better understanding of the activity, uses, users and broader beneficiaries of the National Geodetic Survey’s Aeronautical Survey Program,
help define its socio-economic benefits,
provide preliminary order of magnitude estimates of benefits of the program, and
examine influences on future needs for the program’s services.
The footprint (trade space) analysis presents data on airport improvement grants, activities of the program, airports, aviation and societal beneficiaries. Methods of estimating socio-economic benefits are considered, preliminary estimates of benefits are made and issues that will affect use of the services in the future are discussed. Additional information is included in 10 appendices.
The FAA Airport Improvement Program (AIP) provides grants, to public agencies for planning and development of the 3,249 eligible public-use airports and the 72 privately owned civil airports.
The FAA requires that geographic information system (GIS) contractors submit plans and surveys with geodetic control, runway, navigational aid, obstruction and other aeronautical data under its Airports GIS (AGIS) program. These contracted survey plans and surveys are sent to the NGS Aeronautical Survey Program (ASP) for quality assurance review.
The GIS information is used by the FAA in establishing flight rules and other requirements to assure safety.
Irv Leveson is an economist with extensive experience examining GNSS markets, applications, benefits and policies. His public studies include: “The Economic Benefits of GPS.” He recently led a National Geodetic Survey study.
There’s a saying that “Time stops everything from happening at once” — but what if it doesn’t?
What if we are in a world in which the U.S. is borrowing growth from the future by increasing debt, China has slowing growth and risky finances, many developing and southern European countries have combinations of economic malaise, recession, high and rising debt and/or double-digit inflation, the U.S. is in disruptive trade negotiations and Britannia waves the rules?
With the widespread influence of GNSS and the many technologies with which it is now associated or integrated, attention is increasingly turning to the prospects for and nature of applications, where the platform is the message.
At the same time, economic, political and technological developments are leading to pressing issues in the areas of spectrum management, spoofing and jamming, cybersecurity, privacy, net neutrality, spectrum competition, national security export controls, product liability, space debris and crowding and militarization of space.
This environment places unprecedented demands on management attention and agility.
The structure of industries is being transformed. Mergers and acquisitions are reminiscent of the U.S. consolidation of the 1960s, which led to increasing market power among large corporations until economic weakness and new technologies disrupted the leaders.
This time the changes are taking place on a much more global scale, but nevertheless are becoming large enough to influence markets and competition in location-based sectors and other industries.
Describe the market for GNSS products/services in your industry sector as of today. (Source: GPS World 2018 State of the Industry survey)
Market Intelligence. Executives will need good market intelligence and foresight to keep ahead of fast-developing technology trends in research and development and shifting markets.
Despite opportunities from renewed economic growth, decisions regarding capital spending and research and development face not only the usual uncertainties about economic paths, interest rates and markets but also an additional extraordinary range of risks across the globe. These range from military and economic warfare, terrorism and hostage taking to financial excesses to appropriation of intellectual property and state subsidies by competing nations.
In the U.S., where politics is highly polarized, upcoming congressional and presidential elections will certainly lead to large, unexpected changes. U.S. policies could be extended or reversed, depending on election outcomes, in the areas of taxation, regulation, and levels of defense spending, with implications for modernization of GPS satellites, ground systems and military user equipment.
What is your business outlook for 2019? (Source: GPS World 2018 State of the Industry survey)
Population Factor. The workplace will have to adjust to further slow population growth. With half of baby boomers yet to retire, job opportunities will continue to be above normal, but so will losses of some skills. The availability of scientific and engineering personnel also will be affected by immigration policies for a long time. In addition, tight labor markets mean issues of labor quality as well as skill.
Moreover, social and political issues in the workplace are becoming more contentious around race relations, gender equality, sexual harassment, privacy and fairness, with some tech employees pressing companies to reject some types of government business.
Europe. In the U.K., choice of a hard Brexit could be disruptive for many years despite some possible long-range benefits. There is no getting around the need to renegotiate vast numbers of restrictions, policies and standards. A “soft Brexit” does not appear likely to yield the hoped-for economic benefits of separation and will not fully reduce the costs of the rift.
The European Union faces the challenge of paying for Galileo and other defense and space programs as well as costly social programs without the contributions of the U.K. At the same time, increased populism is leading to unexpected changes in governments and policies that can reduce cooperation among nations.
Currency. A strong dollar and rising interest rates in advanced countries can create problems for emerging economies. Trade and currency fluctuations complicate supplier decisions about pricing and the location of production.
The leaders of China and Russia are entrenched, and in the absence of major economic disruptions they will be able to carry out policies without periodic reversals. China’s ascendancy in technology, including in GNSS and space, will increasingly challenge the West.
Trade. Politics and economics are joined at the hip, and no less so when it comes to trade. The question at the moment is whether tough trade negotiation tactics will devolve into a sustained trade war, undoing the benefits of the U.S. tax cuts and bringing economic harm to the rest of the world.
The international Monetary Fund warns that: “Our modeling suggests that if current trade policy threats are realized and business confidence falls as a result, global output could be about 0.5 percent below current projections by 2020.” While some see trade tensions, nationalism and populism as the start of an effort to renegotiate the world order, for now developments are likely to be much less far-reaching.
While the U.S. economy is currently strong and likely to remain so for a while, risks have been building and economic and financial cycles have not been repealed. Budget pressures from future economic and political reversals can stall spending on defense, space and GNSS, defer GNSS capabilities and stretch deployment schedules.
All this means turbulence and air pockets down the road. Fasten your seatbelt. FY 2019 is about to take off.
For more results from the 2018 State of the GNSS Industry, see this page.
Possibly during the course of last month’s editorial here, “‘Nearly Perfect’ Not Nearly,” in which I called out the U.S. Air Force for lauding itself a bit much, I veered across the line separating vehemence from over-vehemence. Just possibly. Over-vehemence is a professional hazard of journalism. A gentle reader wrote in to suggest as much. He began, in his polite way, with “As always, I enjoyed your article and it made me think.” Then he offered a few of his thoughts for me in turn to consider.
First, he urged me to weigh all three GPS segments. The space and control segments operate almost flawlessly, he averred. Except, I can’t refrain from riposting, for the times that they don’t.
The user segment, we can all agree, is a different story. Most current GPS user equipment can be jammed and spoofed, sometimes very easily, and some have difficulty handling leap seconds and GPS week rollovers.
The U.S. Air Force and the GPS program office cannot fix the problem with user equipment. This is up to those who manufacture, purchase, install and maintain the user equipment.
Fair enough.
Let’s not even get into mapping and guidance algorithms and obsolete data that generate multitudinous stories in mass media about drivers led astray and into danger “by GPS.” Those are the fault, not of the user equipment per se, but of software conjoined to a receiver in a navigation device or smartphone.
My column in June’s GNSS Design & Test enewsletter covered the same ground and then tackled the potential costs of GPS disruption, citing a study done by Innovate U.K., the U.K. Space Agency and the Royal Institute of Navigation. This included a pie chart of potential economic losses in the U.K. that would stem from a prolonged GNSS disruption. I really should have correleated these with, or at least mentioned in the same breath, the reports done for the National Space Based-PNT Advisory Board by Irv Leveson, because there were several mismatches. In particular, the PNT Advisory Board study concluded that more than 50 percent of the value of GPS to the U.S. economy lies in high-precision uses — substantially higher than estimated in the U.K.
Regardless of statistics, we should think, my correspondent reminded me, about the performance needs of different uses. It’s not just whether you have PNT or you don’t. The degree to which you have it is the key: accuracy, coverage, 3D versus 2D positioning and other factors determine if a technology can perform to meet a given need. Aviation requires 3D positioning for some operations. Surveying and machine control require submeter accuracy. Road use requires meter accuracy now, and submeter in the future for autonomous driving. Almost 50 percent of the U.K. pie chart, and more than 50 percent of GPS value to the U.S., requires meter or better accuracy. Except for other satnav systems, what known technology can provide this kind of performance over an area the size of a nation, whether U.K. or U.S.?
