Hurricane Patricia — “Extremely Dangerous” Category 5 Hurricane — Is the Strongest Storm Ever Recorded.
Esri is providing a continuously updated hurricane map that shows the projected paths, storm surge, weather warnings and precipitation of Hurricane Patricia, the “strongest hurricane ever recorded.” In addition, the real-time effects of the storm can be seen via social media posts. The website, Hurricanes & Cyclones, is part of the Esri Disaster Response Program.
Hurricane Patricia became the most powerful tropical cyclone ever measured in the Western Hemisphere on Friday morning as its maximum sustained winds reached an unprecedented 200 mph (320 kph).
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is offering updates through its National Hurricane Center (NHC).
Hurricane Patricia is heading toward Mexico’s west coast, and is expected to make landfall near Puerto Vallarta. “Confidence is high that Patricia will make landfall in the hurricane warning area along the coast of Mexico as an extremely dangerous category 5 hurricane this afternoon or evening,” according to a Friday morning forecast discussion from the National Hurricane Center.
It will then cause massive rainfall in Texas after it hits landfall. “The global models continue to depict the development of a cyclone near the Texas coast over the weekend. This system should be non-tropical in nature. However, this cyclone is expected to draw significant amounts of moisture from Patricia’s remnants, and could result in locally heavy rainfall over portions of the northwestern Gulf of Mexico coastal area within the next few days,” according to the NHC discussion.
CoreLogic, a residential property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, today released an expanded version of its natural catastrophe risk management solution, which features a new comprehensive probabilistic flood model that analyzes the potential damage and financial impact at the property-level from flood events in the continental United States.
This probabilistic flood model is unique to the industry because its riverine and flash flood risk components provide better risk estimation for areas outside the 100-year flood zones–areas responsible for 20 percent of historic flood losses but which represent only 1 percent of the flood insurance policies in force.
Measuring both severity and frequency of flood events, the probabilistic flood model loss calculations offer property, contents and business interruption analysis. The model also incorporates historical flood event footprints from the last 50 years and the accompanying property damage.
Additionally, the model incorporates detailed user-provided building information to derive vulnerability assessments driven by both water depth and water velocity. These building characteristics include construction type, occupancy, floor elevation, basements and elevated building configurations. The new CoreLogic flood model provides insurers with an unprecedented tool to more accurately underwrite the risk associated with this complex peril, especially the proprietary flash flood component.
With granular 10-meter elevation data, the catastrophe risk management solution incorporates the Digital Flood Insurance Rate Maps (DFIRMs) provided by the Federal Emergency Management Association (FEMA). It uses more than 80 different occupancy classes covering topography, land-use, stream coverage and inundation. In order to more accurately measure a property’s flood risk, more than 50 data layers ranging from elevation, hydrologic and catchment information are included, as well as data for over 6 million miles of streams and 20,000 stream flow gauges.
“The release of the U.S. Inland Flood Model means insurers can now use this advanced probabilistic tool to help them determine a property’s potential for flood damage,” said Tom Larsen, CoreLogic product architect. “The model’s unique ability to provide granularity down to the property level will offer insurers a complete view of flood risk, including contents and business interruption, for all types of properties.”
The catastrophe risk management solution contains parcel-level geocoding through PxPoint from CoreLogic, which can convert physical addresses or locations into precise geographic coordinates for over 142 million parcel boundaries. A new visualization feature identifies details in the data as well as exceptions via easy-to-use charts and graphics. Other new components include updates to three risk assessment models including Italy Earthquake, the North Atlantic Hurricane Risk and U.S. Offshore Energy.
Highlights include:
The Italy Earthquake Model now incorporates an updated seismic source model based on the Seismic Hazard Harmonization in Europe (SHARE) to provide a current and more accurate view of seismic hazard in Italy. Increased maximum magnitudes, an updated magnitude-frequency distribution and a new ground motion model are part of the enhancements.
The North Atlantic Hurricane Risk Model update includes a high-resolution storm surge model and enhanced hazard risk assessment to more accurately capture the damage from storm surge as the surge attenuates inland (outside of the high velocity zones). It uses storm intensities from historical events based on the Atlantic hurricane reanalysis project by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). Additionally, the North Atlantic Hurricane Risk Model includes a full set of default secondary structural modifiers by vintage and location for all hurricane states, which are based on the International Building Code as well as state-specific building codes to provide refined results. RQE 16 also includes a model version which was certified by the Florida Commission Hurricane for Loss Projection Methodology in June 2015.
The U.S. Offshore Energy Model features a distinctive wave model component and unique financial model which produces an improved estimate of potential damage to physical assets in U.S. territorial waters within the Gulf of Mexico. A network analysis is also built into the model to produce a better estimate of the lost production from oil wells.
“All of these enhancements will help insurers understand hazard risk in a more granular and comprehensive way, and this precision in risk modeling will help the industry overall fine-tune its underwriting, claims and reinsurance efforts,” Larsen said.
CoreLogic, a global property information, analytics and data-enabled services provider, has released an analysis ranking Florida as the U.S. state with the highest level of comprehensive risk exposure to multiple natural hazards, with Michigan identified as the state with the lowest risk.
The analysis was derived from the new CoreLogic Hazard Risk Score (HRS), an analytics tool launched today that gathers data on multiple natural hazard risks and combines them into a single easy-to-use score ranging from 0 to 100. The overall score indicates risk exposure at the individual property and location level.
For every geocoded location across the U.S, the CoreLogic HRS is compiled using data representing nine natural hazards: flood, wildfire, tornado, storm surge, earthquake, straight-line wind, hurricane wind, hail and sinkhole. Locations with higher risk levels are exposed to multiple hazard risks and will, therefore, receive higher scores when the risk analysis is aggregated. Subsequently, locations with minimal risk levels have lower exposure and receive lower scores. Geocoded locations are generated at the property-address level using latitude and longitude coordinates and include both residential and commercial properties.
“Florida’s high level of risk is driven by the potential for hurricane winds and storm surge damage along its extensive Atlantic and Gulf coastline, as well as the added potential for sinkholes, flooding and wildfires. Michigan alternatively ranks low for most natural hazard risks, other than flooding,” said Dr. Howard Botts, vice president and chief scientist for CoreLogic Spatial Solutions.
The proprietary CoreLogic HRS is able to calculate risk based on a 10 x 10 meter grid, the lowest level of granularity available for the underlying hazard data. In calculating the overall score, both the probability of an event and the frequency of past events are significant contributing factors used to determine risk levels associated with individual hazards, as well as each distinct hazard’s risk contribution to total loss. The data is combined into an aggregated, consistent and normalized value that allows statistically valid combinations to be derived.
“In the past, natural hazards have been difficult to compare and combine in a meaningful way,” said Dr. Botts. “Hazard Risk Score is a single solution that measures risk concentration consistently and pinpoints the riskiest places in the U.S. with timely and granular accuracy. This insight is critical in conducting comparative risk management nationwide and fully understanding exposure to potential natural hazard damage.”
Insurers, risk managers and mortgage servicers can use CoreLogic Hazard Risk Score to improve decision-making and enhance a variety of business operations, including:
Business continuity and disaster recovery planning
Analyzing risk associated with a residential property or portfolios of properties
Measuring mitigation savings vs. total hazard potential damage
Evaluating and determining natural hazard risk levels of distribution and supplier networks
Recognizing which underinsured or uninsured properties may become at risk of default
Adverse selection avoidance and identification of “good risk” properties
U.S. Natural Hazard Risk by State* (Ranked by CoreLogic Hazard Risk Score)
Rank State HRS
1FL94.51
2RI79.67
3LA79.23
4CA75.56
5MA72.12
6KS69.51
7CT69.04
8OK66.82
9SC66.38
10DE65.38
11OR64.89
12NJ61.54
13IA61.02
14TX60.89
15NC59.72
16MO57.81
17DC57.33
18MS57.05
19AR56.7
20NH55.3
21ID52.75
22MD52.28
23CO51.88
24NE51.86
25IL51.8
26IN50.74
27GA50.58
28NV50.12
29AL49.42
30KY47.34
31TN46.48
32UT45.22
33NM43.76
34AZ42.81
35VA42.35
36WA42.3
37WI38.52
38SD38.24
39MT37.91
40MN36.42
41OH34.61
42ME31.64
43WY30.24
44PA28.79
45VT28.31
46ND27.5
47NY24.97
48WV20.67
49MI20.22
Source: CoreLogic 2014.
* AK and HI were excluded in the ranking due to limited natural hazard risk data.
AT&T’s Network Disaster Recovery (NDR) program, as the first private company certified by the Department of Homeland Security for private-company voluntary disaster preparedness, is committed to maintaining and restoring the AT&T global network when natural disasters strike, the company said.
Despite predictions, no one is certain when the next tropical storm or hurricane will ravage the coastline. With $600 million invested in the NDR program, AT&T’s arsenal of equipment includes more than 320 technology and equipment trailers that can be quickly deployed, making it one of the nation’s largest and most advanced disaster programs.
“Staying connected during severe weather events is critically important to consumers, businesses and our emergency management officials,” said Sonia Perez, president, AT&T Louisiana. “That’s why AT&T invests a tremendous amount of resources in our network reliability and disaster response capabilities.”
The Network Disaster Recovery team works closely with other AT&T response teams, local AT&T network personnel, regional Emergency Operations Centers and Local Response Centers to fortify network facilities and equipment, and stage technicians and resources near the storm impact area. In the event of damage, teams are poised to restore and maintain service until permanent repairs can be made.
AT&T also conducts readiness drills and simulations throughout the year to ensure its networks are prepared and its personnel are ready to respond at a moment’s notice. Since its inception in 1991, the NDR has responded to more than 20 catastrophes across the U.S.
Response equipment readied in the wake of an event includes:
Mobile cell sites and mobile command centers
Emergency communications vehicles
A self-sufficient base camp, complete with sleeping tents, bathrooms, kitchen, laundry facilities, on-site nurse and meals ready to eat (MREs)
Hazmat equipment and supplies
Technology and support trailers to provide infrastructure support and mobile heating ventilation and air conditioning
Internal and external resources for initial assessment and recovery efforts.
Consumers and businesses also should have a plan in place. When preparing for an evacuation or shelter-in-place, remember these tips:
Keep your wireless phone batteries charged at all times. In case of a power outage, have alternate means of charging your phone available, such as an extra battery, car charger or device-charging accessory. Sales tax holidays are a great time to stock up on cell phone accessories for your household.
Keep your wireless phone dry. The biggest threat to your device during a hurricane is water, so keep your equipment safe from the elements by storing it in a baggie or some other type of protective covering, such as an Otterbox phone cover.
Have a family communication plan in place. Designate someone out of the area as a central contact, and make certain that all family members know who to contact if they get separated. Most importantly, practice your emergency plan in advance.
Forward your home number to your wireless number in the event of an evacuation. Because call forwarding is based out of the telephone central office, you will get incoming calls from your landline phone even if your local telephone service is disrupted at your home. In the unlikely event that the central office is not operational, services such as Voicemail, Call Forwarding, Remote Access call forwarding and call forwarding busy line/don’t answer may be useful.
Track the storm and access weather information on your wireless device. Many homes lose power during severe weather. If you have a working wireless device that provides access to the Internet, you can watch weather reports through services like AT&T U-verse Live TV or keep updated with local radar and severe weather alerts through My-Cast Weather, if you subscribe to those services.
Take advantage of location-based mapping technology. Services such as AT&T Navigator and AT&T FamilyMap can help you seek evacuation routes or avoid traffic congestion from downed trees or power lines, as well as track a family member’s wireless device in case you get separated.
Keeping the lines open for emergencies
During evacuations, the storm event and its aftermath, network resources will be taxed. To help ensure that emergency personnel have open lines, keep these tips in mind:
Text messaging. During an emergency situation, text messages may go through more quickly than voice calls because they require fewer network resources. All of AT&T’s wireless devices are text messaging capable. Depending on your text or data plan, additional charges may apply.
Be prepared for high call volume. During an emergency, many people are trying to use their phones at the same time. The increased calling volume may create network congestion, leading to “fast busy” signals on your wireless phone or a slow dial tone on your landline phone. If this happens, hang up, wait several seconds and then try the call again. This allows your original call data to clear the network before you try again.
Keep non-emergency calls to a minimum, and limit your calls to the most important ones. If there is severe weather, chances are many people will be attempting to place calls to loved ones, friends and business associates.
Small Business Tips:
Set up a call-forwarding service to a predetermined backup location. Set up a single or multiple hotline number(s) for employees, employees’ families, customers and partners, as appropriate, to call so that all parties know about the business situation and emergency plan.
Back up data to the Cloud. Routinely back up files to an off-site location. Services such as Mobile Workplace are a suggested solution for small businesses.
Outline detailed plans for evacuation and shelter-in-place plans. Practice these plans (employee training, etc.). Establish a backup location for your business and meeting place for all employees.
Assemble a crisis-management team and coordinate efforts with neighboring businesses and building management. Be aware that disasters affecting your suppliers also affect your business. Outline a plan for supply chain continuity for business essentials.
Consider a back-up cellular network. Services like AT&T Remote Mobility Zone, allows organizations to protect their critical communications by installing small cell sites at the businesses’ locations. If a disaster disables primary communications networks, the back-up cellular network can help keep your company connected.
An exercise in planning for months proves timely in light of Hurricane Sandy
By Art Kalinski
I was going to write about the increasing presence of social media at GEOINT 2012, but I’ll cover that next month since Hurricane Sandy made an exercise I attended last week more significant in its timeliness.
The Disaster Response Integrative Logistics Exercise was a joint effort of the Institute for Defense & Business and Lockheed Martin. Heading up the effort was retired U.S. Ambassador David Litt of the IDB and Corey Cook of Lockheed Martin. The almost week-long event was held at the Lockheed Martin Lighthouse located in Suffolk, Virginia, near Norfolk. The 65,000-square-foot high-technology facility is designed for experimentation and prototyping using analysis, modeling and simulation. It’s a reconfigurable command and control operations laboratory that permits participants to test and analyze concepts in a gaming environment.
The stated purpose of the disaster response exercise was: “Given the nature, frequency, location and severity of disasters, inter-organizational collaboration – to include the private sector – is becoming increasingly critical to the efficiency and effectiveness of logistics in disaster responses.” The exercise involved more than a 100 participants from the private sector, government agencies, non-profit organizations, and military services. Lou Kratz, Vice president and managing director, Logistics and Sustainment, Corporate Engineering & Technology for Lockheed Martin, stated that “Today’s crisis response efforts generally struggle with effective logistics collaboration among the multiple public and private stakeholders engaged. With our 21st-century logistics capabilities and global resources available from the public sector and private organizations, together we can develop solutions that will help our communities and businesses recover more quickly and effectively after a crisis.”
And collaborate we did! The list of participants was quite extensive and quite diverse. To give you a sense of the attendees, here is a partial list of organizations represented:
commercial companies included DHL, Maersk, Florida Power and Light, Fluor, Home Depot, Walmart
federal government agencies included FEMA, DHS, GSA, HHS, USAID, State Department
military organizations included NAVSUP, NORTHCOM, USACE, USAF, USMC, USN, SOUTHCOM, National Defense University, USCG, NORTHCOM
NGOs included United Nations agencies, the Red Cross, Operation Blessing, Catholic Relief Services and many more.
Conference attendance was significantly impacted by Hurricane Sandy, which also highlighted its timeliness. FEMA, USAID, USACE, and the Red Cross, who were confirmed attendees and were instrumental in the development of the DRIL exercise, were deployed to Hurricane Sandy just hours before the start of the event. Fortunately, attendance to the DRIL by multiple organizations and substitute personnel was still robust, allowing for a highly successful exercise.
Some of the exercise objectives included defining and understanding different agency logistics capabilities, leadership structures, institutional and regulatory obstacles, differences in cultures, missions and operating procedures while developing metrics to evaluate performance in disaster response efforts. To accomplish the objectives, all the participants were organized into four integrated teams that were then separated at times into functional teams and then reassembled with representatives speaking for each team to the entire group of attendees.
Since this was the first exercise of its type, it was a learning experience for all involved and focused on the basics of personnel interactions and group consensus. Each participant had access to his or her own computer, common computer resources and pre-developed exercise parameters. There were many artificial assumptions presented to the teams, and the team members made even more assumptions and guesses as they worked through the individual scenarios. Most of the exercise consisted of reviewing the effects of Category 5 hurricanes hitting the Dominican Republic, South Florida and Virginia, so there was a domestic as well as international impact. We participated in our groups, listening to individual team members with specialized knowledge and experience, then prioritized the delivery of needed resources and services. As the exercises ramped up, there were many animated discussions in which basics such as water, food, shelter, medical, electric power and transportation infrastructure were prioritized and justification documented.
I made several observations to myself as the exercises progressed. First, there are definite cultural differences between federal, military, NGO and commercial agencies. Not bad differences, just different. Second, individual personalities can steer the group dynamics and outcomes. And third, situational awareness is critical to effective disaster response. Geospatial technology was not part of this first exercise, but would clearly have been valuable to provide a common operational picture. That level of complexity would not have been practical for this initial exercise, but it does lead me to the “Solutions” room next to the main exercise area.
In a space adjacent to the main exercise room was a “Solutions” room that showcased potentially helpful technologies. The room was open to exercise participants toward the tail end of the week. It consisted of a diverse assortment of commercial and government solutions that addressed some of the issues the teams struggled with during the week. Examples include a new computer-based system developed by the Navy Supply Systems Command (NAVSUP) that is similar to the commercial Kayak flight search system. The Transportation Exploitation Tool (TET) was explained to me by Greg Butler, division director, NAVSUP GLS Transportation, who initiated the effort. He explained that all too often resources are wasted flying parts or personnel on dedicated aircraft that are duplicate trips of other aircraft or ships with available space traveling to the same location. The new geospatial network scheduling system optimizes transportation resources across all branches of service and already saved the Navy $23M on a $750k investment.
Lockheed Martin displayed several technologies, including communications and data management technologies. One of the most interesting was its Hybrid Aircraft that was initially developed for military use. However, its ability to transport equipment and supplies efficiently to undeveloped sites while providing a persistent platform for communications and to collect and download imagery makes it a valuable asset for emergency response activities. To learn more, view the following video.
A representative from NATO explained the NATO Civil-Military Fusion Center, including a map library and custom services. Several exhibitors demonstrated the use of social media, which can be a very valuable and timely source of information to build situational awareness during emergencies. A company I work with, Soft Power Solutions, integrates GIS resources such as Google, USGS, ortho and oblique imagery married to geographically placed social media to build situational awareness that is quite robust. It was especially dramatic that during demonstrations, a 7.2 earthquake was reported off the coast of Guatemala. One could easily see the growing number of tweets that almost immediately confirmed the earthquake and level of damage. Here is a ShakeMap generated by USGS within minutes of the earthquake showing the level of impact on the Guatemalan coast (shown in yellow).
One of the exercise objectives was to develop metrics that would evaluate performance in disaster response efforts. There were many metrics developed that one would expect – roads open, electricity restored, utilities restored, etc. However, the one informal metric that was developed through personal experience of Florida emergency responders was the “Waffle House” metric. Waffle House is a ubiquitous restaurant chain with locations throughout the southeast. The Florida responders observed that driving from one county’s Waffle House to another open Waffle House was a good indicator that the location was in OK shape. Since a Waffle House needs minimal staffing and utilities compared to larger restaurants, it was a good indicator as to how bad conditions were in the location. Perhaps someone will develop a “Waffle House Open” type GIS layer as a metric to “okayness.” Sounds like a good thesis for a GIS graduate student.
Everyone who participated was enthusiastic about conducting another similar exercise. Planning is already underway to make that happen. I, for one, feel that this kind of exercise can have a significant positive impact on future disasters because it builds face-to-face relationships that are so valuable during actual events. I’m going to do what I can to help with a geospatial aspect in future exercises.
