Tag: Moore’s Law

  • The role of atomic clocks in data centers

    The role of atomic clocks in data centers

    How the atom went from data’s worst enemy to its best friend

    By David Chandler, product marketing manager, Frequency and Timing Systems business unit, Microchip Technology

    GNSS constellations are precise timing systems. (Image: Microchip Technology)
    GNSS constellations are precise timing systems. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    Timing from atomic clocks is now an integral part of data-center operations. The atomic clock time transmitted via Global Position System (GPS) and other Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) networks is synchronizing servers across the globe, and atomic clocks are deployed in individual data centers to preserve synchronization when the transmitted time is not available. 

    This high level of synchronization is vital to ensure the zettabytes of data collected around the globe every year can be meaningfully stored and used in many applications, whether due to system requirements or to ensure regulatory compliance. The quantum nature of an atom enables the precision time and is a critical part of ensuring that more data at faster speeds will be processed in the future — ironic, as just a few years ago the quantum nature of the atom was seen as the ultimate death of this increase in data processing and speed. 

    In 1965, Gordon Moore predicted the transistor count on an integrated circuit would double every year. This was eventually revised to doubling every two years. Along with this increase in transistor density came an important increase in speed as well as decreases in cost and power consumption. 

    It may have been hard in 1965 to imagine there would be any real-world need to have a semiconductor with 50 billion transistors on it in 2021, but as semiconductor technologies kept up with the law, so did application demands. Cell phones, financial trading and DNA mapping are all applications that rely heavily on the number of operations per second a microprocessor can execute, which is closely tied to the transistor count on a chip. 

    Photo:
    Satirical image of an engineer trying to keep up with Moore’s Law. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    The Demise of Moore’s Law

    Unfortunately, Moore’s Law is rapidly coming to an end due to a limit imposed by physics. With wafer fabrication now in the sub-10-nm technology nodes, the transistor sizes are only about 10 to 50 times that of a silicon atom. At this scale, the size and quantum properties of atoms and free electrons significantly prohibit further size reduction. In essence, you could think of the atom as the ultimate court that struck down the law. 

    But while Moore’s Law will come to an end, the thirst for increased processing power will continue to grow. With the advent of the internet of things (IoT), streaming services, social media posts and autonomous self-driving cars, the amount of data generated every day continues to increase exponentially. 

    In 2021, every day an estimated 2.5 exabytes (2,882,303,761,517,120,000 bytes) was generated. Exabyte databases managing more than 100,000 transactions per second (a transaction consists of multiple operations) are currently in use, and the size of the databases and the transactions per second will continue to grow for the foreseeable future.

    Synchronizing the Machines

    This explosive growth in the volume of data — coupled with the speed at which the data must be written, read, copied, analyzed, manipulated and backed up — required data-center architects to find a way around the end of Moore’s Law. The architects employed horizontal scaling in a data center with distributed databases, where instead of an entire database residing on one server, the database is distributed over multiple servers in a cluster. 

    In this configuration, the cluster essentially functions as one giant machine, hence the size and speed of the system now becomes limited by the physical size of a data center rather than by the size of an atom. (Take that, atom!)

    Software engineers now make careers writing code that enables horizontal scaling. For all the software to work, however, all the machines must be synchronized. Otherwise it violates a concept called causality. 

    What is causality? It is easiest to explain through an example. Suppose you have two cameras to record images for a 100-meter dash, each with its own internal clock. The first camera is at the starting blocks. The second camera is at the finish line. Both sensors are continually firing and timestamping each image with the time from their respective clocks. 

    Photo:Clock uncertainty causes issues with causality. In this case, a race officially finished before it started. (Image: Microchip Technology)
    Clock uncertainty causes issues with causality. In this case, a race officially finished before it started. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    To determine the official time of the winning sprinter in the race, the first camera’s images are reviewed for the point in time when the first runner left the block and this time-stamp is subtracted from the time-stamp on the last camera’s image for that runner crossing the finish line. 

    For this to work, both cameras must be synchronized to an acceptable level of uncertainty. If the synchronization of the clocks is only ±0.05 seconds, you would be unable to determine if someone who was recorded as running 9.6 seconds actually broke the world record of 9.58 seconds. What if they were only synchronized to ±5 seconds from the stadium clock? 

    Imagine this scenario: Observed from the main stadium clock, a race starts at exactly 12:00:00:00 p.m. The first runner crosses the finish line at 12:00:09:60 p.m. From the perspective of the main stadium clock, the official race time was 9.6 seconds. 

    But what if the first camera’s clock was exactly 5 seconds fast and the second camera’s clock was exactly 5 seconds slow? The race would officially start at 12:00:05:00 p.m and finish at 12:00:04:60 p.m. The race would officially finish 0.4 seconds before it started, the world record would be shattered, the laws of physics would be broken, and the current record holder would most likely be wrongfully dropped by all his sponsors. 

    Applying Causality to a Database

    The same principle of causality is important in a database. Transactional record updates must appear in the database in the sequential order in which they occurred. If you count on the direct deposit of your paycheck arriving prior to having a direct withdrawal to pay your monthly mortgage, and the bank’s database did not record these in the correct sequence, you will be charged an overdraft fee. On one machine, causality errors are easy to prevent, but on multiple servers, each with its own internal clock, the servers must be synchronized and timestamp every transaction.

    To achieve this, one server must act as a reference clock, much like the stadium clock, and it must distribute time to each server in a way that minimizes the time error of each server clock. The uncertainty of each timestamp (±5 seconds in the race) forms a time envelope that is twice the uncertainty of the clock (10 seconds for the race). For a distributed database, the number of nonoverlapping time-envelopes that can fit into a second should be at least on the order of the number of transactions per second expected for the system. 

    Probability, criticality of causality, and cost of implementation will ultimately all play a role in the final solution, but this relationship is a good starting point. A system with time-stamp uncertainties of ±1 millisecond would have time-envelopes of 2 milliseconds, and a maximum of 500 non-overlapping time-envelopes would fit in one second. This system could support approximately 500 transactions per second. 

    Where NTP and PTP Fall Short

    Time-over-Ethernet technologies known as Network Time Protocol (NTP) and Precision Time Protocol (PTP) are used to synchronize all the servers in a distributed database in a data center. These protocols can ensure a local area network can distribute time with sub-millisecond (NTP) or sub-microsecond (PTP) uncertainties, enabling thousands (NTP) or millions (PTP) of transactions per second.

    Unfortunately, even with these solutions that enabled a detour around the atom-imposed demise of Moore’s Law, physics has thrown another roadblock in the path of distributed databases in the form of the speed of light. 

    Imagine a well-synchronized distributed database operating with PTP in San Jose, California, happily executing 100,000 transactions per second with no causality issues. One of the database architects is sitting in his office in New York and his boss asks him to update a large series of records. 

    The architect wants to be able to exploit his new database to its full extent and show off the system capabilities. He plans on executing 100,000 transactions per second. 

    To update records per the request, he creates a simple transaction that adds the value of one record to a second record only if the value of the first record is greater than the second record. To accomplish this, he must issue a read to both records. His local machine in New York will then compare the values, then send a write command to the second record when needed.

    After completing this, he then wants to execute the next transaction that compares a third value to the new sum. If the new sum is greater than the third record, then the third record is replaced with the sum. He wants to repeat this for 6 million records. Because the database is capable of 100,000 transactions per second, he thinks it will be done in roughly a minute. He tells his boss he will have the records updated in five minutes, then leaves to get a cup of coffee. 

    While drinking his coffee, he reads a story about how the new 100-meter dash record is negative 0.4 seconds which defies the laws of physics, and that the previous record holder is suing the stadium officials because he has lost all his endorsement money. The architect laughs to himself and thinks that the stadium should have hired him as the synchronization expert.

    He comes back to his desk five minutes later and is dismayed to see that his database update has completed fewer than 1,500 transactions. He sadly realizes his mistake and prepares his résumé to send it over to the stadium, where he hopes his PTP deployment won’t have the same problem. 

    What went wrong? The speed of light limits the theoretical fastest possible transmission of data between New York and San Jose to 13.7 milliseconds. 

    The speed of light imposes a theoretical limit to the speed at which data can be transferred between two points. (Image: Microchip Technology)
    The speed of light imposes a theoretical limit to the speed at which data can be transferred between two points. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    The Distance Problem

    Unfortunately, real world transactions are even slower. Even with a dedicated fiber-optic link between the two locations, the refractive index of the fiber, the real-world path of the fiber and other system issues make this transit time even slower. So just one transmission from New York will take 40 to 50 milliseconds to arrive in San Jose. 

    However, in this transaction there are four unique operations. There are two read operations, which could happen in parallel, which then have to be sent back to New York. The round trip takes 80 to 100 milliseconds. Then, once both values are compared, a write operation is issued and a write acknowledgement must be sent back indicating the write operation completed before the next transaction can start. 

    Suddenly, it doesn’t matter that the database can perform 100,000 transaction per second, because the distance is limiting the system to 5 transactions per second. To complete the 6 million transactions, this system would take 13 days, more than enough time for several more cups of coffee and to update a résumé. This delay is referred to as communications latency.

    Circumventing Latency 

    But just like with Moore’s Law, database architects figured out how to circumvent latency. Database replications are created near the users, so they can work with the data without having to send signals across the country. 

    Periodically, the replications are compared and reconciled to ensure consistency. During the reconciliation process, the transaction time-stamps are used to determine the actual sequence of transactions, and records are sometimes rolled back when there is an irreconcilable difference such as when the transaction time-envelopes overlap. Reducing clock uncertainty reduces the number of irreconcilable differences in replicated instances, as more time-envelopes reduce the probability of overlaps. This results in higher efficiencies and lower probabilities of data corruptions. 

    But now the timestamping has to be accurate not only within each data center, but also between the data centers, which can be separated by thousands of miles and connected via the cloud. This is a much more difficult task, as it requires an external reference with very low uncertainly that is readily available in both locations.

    Down to the Atomic Level

    Enter the previous foe of the database architect, the atom. While the atom was busy repealing Moore’s Law, its subatomic particles were busy spinning. The neutrons and protons in the nucleus were rotating, while at the same time the electrons were busy orbiting about the nucleus, while also spinning on their own axes. This is analogous to Earth orbiting around the sun while simultaneously spinning on its axis. 

    The electrons can spin around their axes clockwise or counterclockwise. Considering there are roughly 7 octillion (7 with 27 zeros after it) atoms in a human, with all the subatomic particles spinning in our bodies, it is amazing we aren’t permanently dizzy. (Note: The subatomic particles aren’t really busy spinning and orbiting, they are really busy giving us probability wave functions and magnetic interactions that would give us results similar to what would happen if they were spinning and orbiting. But if the thought of all the spinning makes you dizzy, trying to comprehend the reality of quantum mechanics will make you positively nauseous.)

    Conceptual atoms with nucleus and valence electron with nuclear spin, electron spin and orbital spin. (Image: Microchip Technology)
    Conceptual atoms with nucleus and valence electron with nuclear spin, electron spin and orbital spin. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    When microwave radiation at a very specific precise frequency is absorbed by an electron, the direction of spin about the electron axis can be changed. If this happened to Earth, the Sun would suddenly set in the east and rise in the west! 

    Atomic clocks are machines designed to detect the state of the electron spin, and then change that direction through microwave radiation. The frequency varies depending on the element, the isotope, and the excitation state of the electrons. 

    Once the machine determines the frequency, known as the hyperfine transition frequency, the period can be determined as the inverse of the frequency, and the number of periods can be counted to determine the elapsed time. The international definition of the second is 9,192,631,770 periods of the radiation required to induce the hyperfine transition of an electron in the outer orbital shell of a cesium atom.  

    Atomic clocks are the most stable commercially available clocks in the world. An atomic clock the size of a deck of cards called the chip-scale atomic clock (CSAC) will drift 1 millionth of a second in 24 hours, whereas an atomic clock the size of a refrigerator called a hydrogen maser will only drift 10 trillionths of a second in 24 hours. (Coincidentally, 10 trillionths is also about the ratio of the radius of the hydrogen atom to the height of the sprinters in the 100-meter dash and of the now-unemployed data-center architect in New York.)

    With the accuracy provided by these atomic clocks, approximately 500,000 to ~50 billion non-overlapping time-envelopes can be provided for a distributed database running in data centers in Tokyo, London, New York, Timbuktu or anywhere else in the world.

    The unit second is defined by counting 9,192,631,770 cycles of the cesium hyperfine transmission radiation frequency. (Image: Microchip Technology)
    The unit second is defined by counting 9,192,631,770 cycles of the cesium hyperfine transmission radiation frequency. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    Time for Distribution

    How does time get to all the data centers from these atomic clocks? Universal Coordinated Time (UTC) is a global time distributed by satellites, fiber optic networks, and even the internet. UTC itself is derived from a collection of high precision atomic clocks located in national laboratories and timing stations around the world. Contributors to UTC receive a report that provides the UTC time from these clocks and their individual offset from calculated UTC. The labs and other facilities then transmit the time to the world. 

    The UTC report is published monthly and tells the national labs their miniscule timing offset from UTC during the previous month. Technically, we don’t know precisely what time it was up until a month after the fact. And to make things worse, extra seconds are periodically added to UTC, called leap seconds, which are inserted due to variations in the Earth’s rotation and our relative position to observable stars. While this aligns Earth to the universe, it causes havoc in data centers and 100-meter dashes. 

    The hyperfine transition frequency produced in a hydrogen maser, 1.420405751 GHz, will cause spin reversal in an electron. (Image: Microchip Technology)
    The hyperfine transition frequency produced in a hydrogen maser, 1.420405751 GHz, will cause spin reversal in an electron. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    Enter GNSS

    Two common methods used by data centers to acquire UTC are via the internet using publicly available NTP time servers and via satellite using GPS or other GNSS networks. While timing through public NTP timeservers over the internet was common during early deployment of distributed databases, inherent performance, traceability and security issues have created the push to move away from this solution. 

    Even though GPS and other GNSS are typically thought of as positioning and navigation systems, they really are precision timing systems. Position and time at a receiver are determined by the transit time of signals traveling at the speed of light from multiple satellites to the receiver. Ironically, this is another case of a physics principle causing a problem — in this case the speed of light instead of the atom — but also contributing to the solution. 

    The satellites have their own onboard atomic clocks, which are synchronized to UTC that was transmitted to the satellites from ground stations. Acquiring UTC with this method can provide time uncertainties in the 5-nanosecond range, enabling 100 million time-envelopes per second. 

    This method is far more reliable and accurate than public NTP servers, and while these signals can be interrupted by such events as solar storms or intentional signal jamming, backup clocks that have been synchronized to the satellite signals when present can be placed in each individual data center to provide the desired uncertainty levels during these interruptions.

    The evolution of database transaction rates and the enabling and disabling technologies. (Image: Microchip Technology)
    The evolution of database transaction rates and the enabling and disabling technologies. (Image: Microchip Technology)

    Next Up: Jumping Electrons

    As our quest to acquire, store and transact data in the future continues to grow, novel atomic-clock technologies and time transmission systems with lower uncertainties will be needed. Currently, national timing labs are developing atomic clocks that work on the optical transitions that occur when an electron jumps orbital shells. These offer frequency stabilities to a quintillionth of a Hertz and will eventually be used to redefine the unit second.

    Signal transmission through dedicated fiber-optic links or airborne lasers are already yielding improved transmission accuracy. With these continued innovations data, the atom and light will continue their complex love-hate relationship to enable ever larger quantities of data processed at ever increasing rates without consistency issues or causality casualties. 

  • Out in Front: Addiction on the Rise

    Out in Front: Addiction on the Rise

    How accurate is good enough for the majority of your market sector? This chart show the answers from those who identified themselves as members of the survey and high-precision community. For more results from this and other sectors, see the 2015 State of the GNSS Industry Report.
    How accurate is good enough for the majority of your market sector? This chart show the answers from those who identified themselves as members of the survey and high-precision community. For more results from this and other sectors, see the 2015 State of the GNSS Industry Report.

    Memory fails as to who first said “Accuracy is addictive.” Or perhaps it’s my knowledge base that is deficient. At any rate, I’ll gladly publish documented evidence from anyone who can show the earliest — print or audio — expression of that dictum. It continues to hold as true for this industry as Moore’s Law does for computer technology as a whole.

    We have seen the gradual tightening of accuracy requirements across all sectors of the positioning, navigation and timing (PNT) community with each successive iteration of our State of the GNSS Industry Survey, now in its fourth year. This is the first time we have seen it cross the 1-centimeter line. Not in capability; sub-centimeter capability has been available for some time. But now that level of performance is the minimum acceptable “good enough” for more respondents in the survey and high-precision sector than any lesser degree of accuracy; in fact, greater than all other ranges combined. These addicts form the new majority. Their preferences and their behaviors will rule our world.

    Other sectors will presumably answer likewise in coming years, following the trail blazed by the high-precision pioneers.

    We have crossed the Rubicon. Unlike other obsessive behaviors, there is no going back in our case. This path is a one-way road to  — well, not to the various hells entailed by other addictions — but to the promised land of always-on, always-true, near-perfect provision of positioning.

    Let’s not kid ourselves, however. The perfect world does not exist. The closer we get to millimetric accuracy, the more obstacles we find in our way. Indoor continuity aka ubiquity, jamming, spoofing, hacking, budget cutbacks, slides to the right — this list will surely grow.

    The more acute our addiction, the lower our tolerance for less-than-total fulfillment.

  • Expert Advice: Are We There Yet?

    The State of the Consumer Industry

    By Frank van Diggelen

    Frank van Diggelen
    Frank van Diggelen

    At the start of a new decade, let’s examine the state of the GNSS consumer market and technology. In the December 2009 issue of GPS World, I described the developments that put GPS in cell phones over the last decade. That technology revolution has brought GPS a very long way. Having come this far, we can ask that most famous of all navigation questions:

    Are we there yet?

    In this column, I focus on the question for the consumer segment of GNSS. Has the consumer market reached the point we expected it to be by now? Has the technology reached levels we anticipated?

    The cell-phone GPS revolution began with the catalyst of U.S. E911 legislation, which mandated that when an emergency (911) call is made from a cell phone, the location of the cell phone must be provided. Among several competing location technologies, GPS proved to be the big winner, thanks to seven technology enablers: assisted GPS, massive parallel correlation, high sensitivity, coarse-time navigation, low TOW, host-based GPS, and RF-CMOS.

    All of these together enable very low-cost implementation of GPS in cell phones, even phones on networks such as GSM and W-CDMA that do not have fine-time synchronization (that is, they are not precisely synchronized with the GPS system). GPS is now found in roughly 500 million phones in use today.

    Four Milestones. From a consumer market perspective, we have exceeded forecasts. From a technology perspective, we have kept track with Moore’s law. Chips and receivers are cheaper than expected — because, as well as Moore’s law, we have seen greatly increased volumes and competition. Low-cost chips have not come at the expense of performance; in fact, the opposite — as chips have evolved, they have become less costly and better performing.

    Small, cheap antennas have affected performance, but given the same antenna, I will demonstrate that a receiver with a single-die GPS chip costing less than $4 can outperform a $19,000 receiver.

    This sounds paradoxical, even impossible — indeed many of you may be penning letters to the editor right now! But the time-to-first-fix, sensitivity, and urban-accuracy data will prove my point.

    As a consequence of chip evolution, we are reaching plateaus of development for GPS-only systems. However, there remain many problems to solve, especially in urban canyons and indoors. These problems may never be solved with GPS alone, or with any single system alone. This decade will be characterized by GPS-plus; the days of GPS-only will soon recede into the past.

    Don’t interpret this as a failing of GPS — quite the opposite. Because GPS-only systems have worked so well, they have found their way into half a billion cell phones, and we are boldly taking GPS to places no navigation has gone before. As we do, we start to encounter the limitations of GPS-only performance.

    We will see the proliferation of GPS-plus: GPS+MEMS, GPS+Wi-Fi, GPS+NMR, and GPS+GLONASS, Compass, QZSS, and Galileo. The winners will be those with the greatest levels of integration. To paraphrase Winston Churchill, this is not the end of GPS, it is not even the beginning of the end. But it is, perhaps, the end of the beginning.

    GNSS Consumer Market

    For market forecasts made a few years ago, we can look at summaries provided in GNSS Markets and Applications, by Len Jacobson: a 2006 Frost & Sullivan report estimated the market for PNDs and handheld devices (not including cell phones) in 2010 would be $2.7 billion, with 8.3 million units, at an average selling price (ASP) of $325. In fact, this market today is approximately $6 billion, with 40 million units, at an ASP of $150.

    Twice the Size. The consumer market, not including cell phones, is twice as big (in dollars) as forecast just a few years ago, even though prices are less than half forecast. Unit sales are more than four times forecast.

    For the cell-phone market segment, in 1999 when the E911 rules were enacted in the United States, it was anticipated that A-GPS would be adopted only in fine-time (synchronized) networks, such as Verizon and Sprint CDMA. In coarse-time (non-synchronized) networks such as GSM, the expectation was that terrestrial wireless location techniques, such as time-difference-of-arrival (TDOA) and enhanced-offset-time-difference (E-OTD), would dominate. Today, only a few niches use TDOA, E-OTD is extinct, and GPS rules in coarse-time networks worldwide, including GSM in Europe and North America, and W-CDMA in Japan.

    The consumer market, in particular the cell-phone market, has grown so rapidly that more receivers have been built in cell phones in the last three years than all other GPS built, ever. Today, L1 C/A-code GPS accounts for more than 99 percent of all GNSS receivers manufactured each year.

    From a consumer market perspective, have we reached the point we expected to be by now?

    Yes! 

    Not only have we arrived, we have far surpassed expectations.

    GPS and Moore’s Law

    Moore’s law says that for a given number of transistors, the chip size will halve every two years. Table 1 shows what this looks like in practice. For a particular class of GPS chip, the A-GPS receiver with massive parallel correlation, it shows release dates of different generations of these chips, and the technology process, which is the linear dimension of a single gate on the silicon die. As this dimension reduces to 70 percent of the previous value, the 2-dimensonal chip size reduces by 2 times. You can see Moore’s law in action here: approximately every two years, the technology process moves to the next level, and the chip size reduces by 2X. People are now talking about GPS chips in 45 nanometers, the next step.

    EA-table1

    For a comparison, consider the Broadcom BCM 4751 chip, designed for cell phones. This chip is 2.9 X 3.1 millimeters, the size of the letter B on this page. This is a single-die host-based GPS/SBAS receiver, including RF front end, low-noise amplifier, baseband, and power management unit. Ten iterations of Moore’s law have passed in the last 20 years. The same chip, had it been built 20 years ago, would have been 210 times (a thousand times) bigger.

    There were never chips that big. GPS chips aren’t just getting smaller with Moore’s law, they are getting vastly more complex and more capable.

    Performance

    At an elemental level, a GPS receiver does just three things: it starts, it tracks weak signals, and it computes position, 
velocity, and time. Strip away the 
obfuscating details, and performance may be summed up by: how fast, how sensitive, how accurate.

    Since the 1990s, time to first fix ( TTFF) and sensitivity have improved dramatically, thanks to the seven technology enablers discussed earlier. TTFF for assisted cold starts, or unassisted warm starts, is now as good as one second, even without fine-time. This is a 45X improvement on typical GPS performance of the 1990s. Sensitivity increased roughly 30X (to -150 dBm)  in 1998, then another 10X, (to -160 dBm) in 2006, and perhaps another three times to date, for a total of almost 1,000X extra sensitivity.

    What about accuracy?

    Some perceive low-cost chips as synonymous with low accuracy. This is not true. It is true that small, cheap antennas reduce accuracy; but given the same antennas, the lowest cost receivers on the market today will outperform the most expensive in typical environments where cell phones are used. The following figures show data to prove this point.

    First we connect one of the smallest, lowest cost GPS receivers t
    o one of the best antennas, a choke ring, on a rooftop with a clear view of the sky. Figure 1 shows the scatter of positions. The blue circle shows the median distribution, which is 0.9 meters for this dataset of 2000 fixes.

    FIGURE 1. Low-cost GPS with large, rooftop antenna.
    FIGURE 1a. Low-cost GPS with large, rooftop antenna.
    FIGURE 1b. Survey-grade GPS with large, rooftop antenna.
    FIGURE 1b. Survey-grade GPS with large, rooftop antenna.

     

    The adjacent plot shows the positions obtained from a $19,000 survey-grade GPS receiver, connected to the same antenna. The survey-grade GPS, with a median distribution of 0.3 meters, shows a 60-centimeter advantage over the cell-phone GPS, or maybe a 3X advantage depending on how you look at it. But don’t get too hung up on this result, because this is neither the typical consumer scenario (on a rooftop with choke-ring antenna), nor the main challenge facing us today.

    Next we look at the accuracy achieved with a more typical consumer antenna, in a more typical environment. Figure 2 shows the positions obtained in downtown San Jose with an active patch antenna, such as found in PNDs. San Jose is a fairly typical U.S. city, not the hardest place to use GPS, but not the easiest either. Lightstone Alley, adjacent to tall buildings, is only five meters wide.

    FIGURE 2. Performance of cell-phone GPS (white) versus truth-reference system (blue). Median accuracy 4.4 meters, 67 percent 5.6 meters, 95 percent 11.2 meters.
    FIGURE 2. Performance of cell-phone GPS (white) versus truth-reference system (blue). Median accuracy 4.4 meters, 67 percent 5.6 meters, 95 percent 11.2 meters.

    To evaluate accuracy we used a truth-reference system combining GPS and a tactical-grade IMU with ring laser gyro to produce the blue dots on the figure. The white dots are the low-cost GPS positions. Most of the time, the white dots appear to be on top of the blue, but occasionally you see some separation, and there the red lines show the horizontal error. The median horizontal error is 4.4 meters.

    Figure 3 shows the comparison of low- and high-cost receivers, with the survey-grade receiver connected to the same patch antenna as the cell-phone GPS. There are many position gaps from the survey-grade receiver, and the position walks around when the vehicle is stationary (at the intersections, bottom left and top of the figure). This is because of the weak signals available in the urban environment. But don’t get too hung up on this result either, since we are still not at the real challenge of consumer GPS: location in severe urban canyons, such as San Francisco, New York, Chicago, Shanghai, Taipei, Shinjuku, and similar. In these, typically, only one or two GPS satellites can be seen directly. Other satellites may be tracked, but only by observing purely reflected signals. This is not classic GPS multipath, the combination of a direct and reflected signal; instead this is the combination of nothing but reflected signals. The direct signals are usually completely blocked by many buildings, and are not observable at all. So the whole premise of GPS — observing range from time of flight — breaks down, and it is very difficult to get good accuracy.

     FIGURE 3. Comparison of cell-phone (left) and survey (right) receivers, both with patch antenna
    FIGURE 3. Comparison of cell-phone (left) and survey (right) receivers, both with patch antenna

    Figure 4 compares the cell-phone GPS with the survey-grade GPS, connected to the same small antenna, under such circumstances in San Francisco’s Financial District. There are no fixes at all from the survey-grade receiver. Why?

     FIGURE 4. Cell-phone (left) and survey (right) receivers, in severe urban canyon
    FIGURE 4. Cell-phone (left) and survey (right) receivers, in severe urban canyon

    In Montgomery Street, there was only one directly visible satellite, with a signal strength of -132 dBm. All the other satellites were at -140 dBm or weaker, and traditional GPS receivers cannot acquire signals at this level. Hence the only receivers that work in this environment are modern high-sensitivity receivers most commonly found in cell phones.

    You can see that the move to lower-cost receivers has not come at the expense of performance. In fact, the opposite: TTFF and sensitivity have improved dramatically, while accuracy has not been compromised, and is in fact much better in urban environments than legacy receivers, and even modern survey-grade receivers.

    But are we there yet?

    Although the consumer GPS market has irrefutably arrived, from a technical perspective the answer is more nuanced. Consumer GPS technology has made tremendous leaps forward. But precisely because of these improvements, we are taking GPS where it was never expected to go. It is no longer enough for GPS to work indoors (which it can). The demand is now for it to work as well as if it were outdoors (which, presently, it cannot).

    Performance improvements seen with GPS-only will almost certainly not continue at the recent rate. We do not anticipate yet another 45X improvement in TTFF, or another 30 dB of sensitivity, for GPS alone. However, we do expect order-of-magnitude performance increases with the addition of other technologies. Figure 5 shows data from a TomTom 950, a GPS+MEMS containing the same GPS chip used in the earlier tests, MEMS accelerometers, and MEMS rate gyros. When tightly integrated and tested in the same deep urban canyons of San Francisco, the effect on position is good: median accuracy improved by 30 percent, worst-case errors are more than halved. But the result on heading accuracy is especially dramatic.

     FIGURE 5.  PND position accuracy (left), and heading accuracy (right), San Francisco
    FIGURE 5. PND position accuracy (left), and heading accuracy (right), San Francisco

    The bar graph shows the worst-case heading accuracy in each street. With GPS-only (red), the worst-case error is around 45 degrees, a familiar result to anyone who has used any GPS-only device in a similar environment: sooner or later the map will veer erroneously. However, with the integration of the MEMS rate gyros (blue), the worst-case heading errors drop to around 3 degrees, a 15X improvement in a key metric, similar to the improvements of the last decade, but now thanks to the effect of GPS-plus.

    We will soon see GPS-plus many other technologies: Wi-Fi, NMR/MRL (power measurements from GSM and 3G phones), and of course GPS+GLONASS, Compass, QZSS, and Galileo. Because many mobile devices now include GPS, Wi-Fi, and 3G, there is a natural path for the evolution of GPS technology to include Wi-Fi and MRL measurements.

    There is a also natural trend to source different radios from the same chip supplier. After all, why would you wish to undertake a do-it-yourself effort at removing co-existence issues in different radios, when a chip supplier has already done it for you?

    Looking forward, it is very likely that this new decade will be characterized by GPS-plus other technologies, and the winners will be those with the greatest levels of integration.


    Frank van Diggelen is senior technical director of GPS systems and chief navigation officer for Broadcom Corporation. He holds more than 45 U.S. patents, has a Ph.D. in electrical engineering from Cambridge University, and is the author of A-GPS: Assisted GPS, GNSS & SBAS.