Category: Applications

Oh, What to Buy in These Challenging Times

I receive many requests for advice and/or recommendations from folks who are looking to buy GPS/GNSS equipment for survey and construction. Of course, if they haven’t told me, the first question I ask is, for what type of project are they are planning to use the equipment?

Some are typical projects like topographical surveys and construction staking, while others are not-so-typical. But no matter what type of project it is, the common denominator is the need for high precision data. It may be real-time or post-processed, networked or base-to-rover, single frequency or dual frequency, single constellation or multi-constellation, machine control or man-pack – it could be any of the above, as well as other configurations. But … no matter what … it has to deliver high precision results.

Although it may not seem like it, there is a myriad of GPS/GNSS equipment that will provide high precision, or centimeter (cm)-level positioning. To people who are knee-deep in the industry like you and I, it’s a daunting enough task to wade through all the different GPS/GNSS products to find the one that fits the best. To a first-time purchaser, it can be absolutely confusing and mind-numbing to sift through the brochures, Web sites and flyers.

To further complicate the purchasing process, prices can vary widely. I’ll give you an example. Within the past few months, I’ve been forwarded copies of quotes provided to prospective purchasers of GPS/GNSS equipment and asked to comment on them. You might be amazed at the variation in price.

Two quotes in particular caught my attention. One was for a Spectra Precision Epoch 25 RTK system. Spectra Precision is owned by Trimble Navigation. The Spectra Precision Epoch product line is distributed by Tripod Data Systems (TDS), which is also owned by Trimble. The other quote was for a Trimble-branded R8 GNSS system. The R8 GNSS is Trimble’s top-of-the-line GPS survey system with all the bells and whistles you can get these days on a GPS survey system. I’ve used the R8 GNSS and it’s a sweet ride.

Essentially, the Epoch 25 and R8 GNSS can accomplish the same tasks. Both are dual-frequency RTK systems. The Epoch 25 is dual frequency, GPS-only (no GLONASS), and doesn’t support GPS modernization (L2C and L5). The R8 GNSS supports GPS modernization (L2C and L5) and it supports GLONASS. The R8 GNSS is a much sexier package. It is a single, lightweight unit with the radio/GSM modem fully integrated inside a single unit. The Epoch 25 is essentially two pieces instead of one; the receiver itself and the antenna with a cabled connection between the two. There are other subtle differences, but like I said, for the most part they can both accomplish the same tasks and deliver the same precision, although the GLONASS option on the R8 GNSS has some definite benefits in terms of working in areas where the sky is obscured.

What do you think the price difference is between the two systems?

The R8 GNSS system quote was U.S. $56,900. The Epoch 25 system quote was U.S. $19,000. That’s a big difference.

 

This isn’t meant to pick on Trimble, because the entire industry is the same. In fact, there is a saying I’ve heard for years: “If you don’t like today’s price, check again next Tuesday.” That’s especially true in these economic times when there are fewer potential purchasers of GPS/GNSS equipment so manufacturers and dealers must add more incentive to attract buyers.

When considering purchasing GPS/GNSS equipment, price isn’t the only thing. Local support is an important consideration for most buyers. Local support means technical support as well as sales support (spare parts, etc.). For some buyers who aren’t as technically savvy, it’s obviously even more important. Another variable is that some dealers are more technically competent than others. It doesn’t do you any good if you know more about the system than the local tech representative of the company that sold it to you.

Which GPS/GNSS Equipment Is Right for Me?

Answering this one question will help point you in the right direction:

Do I need the results in real-time, or can I wait until I process the data back in the office (or with a laptop in the field)?

The answer to this question will make a big difference in the type of systems you should consider. Also, the answer might not be so easy. If you are making a first-time purchase for your surveying firm, you may not know what type of projects your business will be working on a year from now. If you really think you’ll be doing a lot of construction staking and sizeable topo surveys, then it’s pretty clear that RTK is the way to go. If you aren’t sure, then a lower cost pair of single frequency receivers may be the way to go. The return on investment (ROI) for those is pretty quick because they are reasonably inexpensive compared to a full-blown RTK system.

Systems for post-processing (a pair of single-frequency receivers) can be purchased for well under U.S. $10,000 and deliver centimeter-level horizontal/vertical measurements. Establishing site control is a good example of how those can be used. However, staking of any kind requires real-time kinematic (RTK) positioning. Also, while post-processing can be used for topographic surveys, RTK is a much more efficient tool when the projects are larger.

Essentially, RTK trades money for time (e.g., you pay more for the equipment but it takes less time to complete the task), while post-processing trades time for money (e.g., you pay less for the equipment but spend more time to complete the task). I know I’ll get a few letters about that because there are some exceptions, but they are generally true statements.
As you see in the example above in comparing the R8 GNSS and the Epoch 25 system, “full-blown RTK systems” can carry significantly different price tags. These days, there are generally three different levels of RTK survey systems:

1. L1-only RTK. A relatively new technology, this is an entry-level RTK survey system for under U.S. $15,000. It’s suited well for environments that are ideal GPS conditions, such as wide-open construction sites with a clear view of the sky. The distance between base and rover is generally limited to 10 km, or about (six miles).

2. Legacy L1/L2 RTK systems. These are the traditional RTK GPS systems like the one I own and like the Epoch 25 system mentioned above. They use L2 in addition to L1, so a longer distance between base and rover is achievable. They are the traditional dual-frequency receivers. They don’t accommodate the new GPS signals being broadcast and planned (L2C and L5), nor can they utilize neither the Russian GLONASS system nor the planned Galileo system. Prices for these systems typically range from U.S. $19,000 to $35,000.

3. Advanced GNSS RTK systems. These are the state-of-the-art RTK survey systems that utilize all signals being broadcast by GPS and GLONASS, as well as taking into account future GPS (L5), GLONASS and Galileo signals (as much as possible). These bleeding-edge systems will allow you to push the envelope as far as possible with satellite positioning. Due to the additional signals they are able to utilize, you will be able to use these systems at times when the other two can’t perform due to lack of satellite signals. Prices for these systems typically range from U.S. $35,000 to U.S. $60,000.

It’s tough to cover a topic such as this in a single column, so I’m sure I’ll visit it again. Maybe some of you will email and perhaps I can write about some specific case studies and publish some sort of purchase decision analysis for GPS/GNSS equipment. I’ve also got a few case studies I could include in such a discussion. Given the economic climate, I think this issue will be discussed often throughout 2009, at least.

Questions from the Webinar:
Is Dual-Frequency GPS — As We Know It — Becoming Obsolete?

First of all, I’d like to thank everyone who attended my webinar a couple of weeks ago. I received many, many questions during the presentation and answered a few of these during the event, but there was no way I could handle them. But most were very good questions that deserve answers, so I’ve devoted this column to answering those I couldn’t address at the time.

Oh yeah, kudos to you who attended; it was the most well-attended webinar to date for GPS World! I really enjoyed it and look forward to the next one in February or so of 2009. The focus on this last webinar was about the Department of Defense decision to discontinue supporting P(Y) on GPS L1 and L2 for civilian users after December 31, 2020.

You can view the archived presentation here.

Col. Mark Crews (ret.), former GPS Chief Engineer, is now retired but was kind enough to comment on some of the following questions that were submitted during the webinar, along with Don Jewell, GPS World’s Military and Government editor, and Richard Langley, the magazine’s Innovation editor.

I should note that it has come to my attention that it is possible the U.S. government might be able to create a “work-around” before 2021 so that the Civil P(Y) sunset date becomes a non-issue. In other words, your legacy dual frequency GPS receivers may end up operating past December 31, 2020 without any problems. Be assured that I will stay on top of this issue and keep you (the readers) up-to-date on any changes regarding Civil P(Y) sunset.

Question #1: Do you think that there will be a program to convert units to new technology like the television change to digital?

Gakstatter: With respect to a government subsidy of sorts? I don’t believe there will be.

Question #2: How do these codes affect the data gathered? And how is the new code going to differ?

Gakstatter: I assume you’re referring to post-processing. L2C and L5 are completely new codes so more data is being collected. It really won’t affect that way you collect data in terms of the user interface. Length of data collection sessions will probably be shorter.

A couple of years ago, I wrote an article about the benefit of the new codes. Some of the information in the article is dated now, but it is still fundamentally relevant. You can view the article here.

Question #3: Explain how civilian receivers such as the Ashtech Z-12 tracks the P(Y) code.

Gakstatter: I can’t speak specifically as to how Ashtech’s Z-Tracking technology works, but fundamentally I believe it reconstructs the full L2 carrier wavelength in addition to cross-correlating the P-code with L1 and L2.

Question #4: How will this affect L1-only receivers using base corrections and getting RTK accuracy?

Gakstatter: It won’t affect L1-only receivers.

Question #5: Will the new codes be better under heavy canopy or forested areas?

Gakstatter: L2C and L5 should improve operation in and around trees, but that’s not necessarily a good thing. Don’t be fooled into thinking you can operate reliably at the centimeter level under heavy tree canopy. That will never happen with only GPS. As I stated in the webinar, the real solution for that environment is the integration of other technologies such as pseudolites, inertial navigation, gyros, lasers, etc. I think those technologies will eventually be small and cheap enough to integrate into a GPS/GNSS receiver to allow seamless operation in GPS-impossible environments at the centimeter level.

Also, more help than L2C and L5 would be the addition of more satellites via GLONASS and Galileo. In this case, I believe that quantity trumps quality. Yes, L2C and L5 are better, but it doesn’t matter how good they are if the receiver can’t track them because of obstructions.

Question #6: Are these upgradeable or will we have to buy complete new equipment sets?

Gakstatter: It depends on the product you have and the level of manufacturer support. If you recently purchased a GPS L1/L2 receiver, I would suspect the manufacturer will probably offer an upgrade to at least L2C without having to completely replace your receiver.

If your L1/L2 is several years old and the manufacturer has discontinued support of that product, then the best you can hope for is some sort of trade-in credit towards the purchase of a new system.

Question #7: Would a receiver that could track L1, L2, L2C, and L5 obtain a worse fix on just L2C and L5 alone?

Gakstatter: I have no idea. In theory, it should perform better than the L1/L2 receivers of today because of better code structure, increased signal strength and better ability to mitigate ionospheric error. The frequency separation of L2 and L5 is not as great as that between L1 and L2 (or L5), so the dual-frequency iono correction potentially might not be quite as good. However, there won’t be enough satellites broadcasting L2C/L5 for at least another decade, so we won’t know until then!

Question #8: Are receiver providers creating units that can be upgraded, or will we be looking at a complete setup replacement (as soon as we are using the stated three codes)?

Gakstatter: Most major manufacturers of survey receivers have models that can track and use L2C, since that’s a signal that’s being broadcast today. Some say certain models are L5-ready. Likely, those will need to be tweaked with firmware when the actual L5 signal broadcasts.

Question #9: Is there a simple-to-understand one page document that may explain all of this to a procurement agent so they know what to consider when purchasing GPS equipment? Does the same exist to pass onto engineers?

Gakstatter: Hmmm … not that I know of, so I’ll try to create one. Email me in a month or so at [email protected].

Question #10: Will this change have any effect on our equipment before 2010?

Gakstatter: No. The semi-codeless sunset date is set for December 31, 2020. The only changes happening before 2010 are that a couple of more Block IIR-M satellites will be launched. The IIR-M broadcasts L2C in addition to L1 C/A. Also, in 2009 the first Block IIF satellite will be launched. The Block IIF will broadcast L2C and L5 in addition to L1 C/A.

Question #11: Will there be new criteria for CORS?

Gakstatter: The National Geodetic Service (NGS) is updating their GNSS strategy and moving toward supporting all broadcast signals (GPS and others). You may want to take a look at their five year and ten year plans.

Question #12: Is there likely to be a gradual degradation in the L2 signal availability in the years approaching the sunset date as the older satellites are lost from the system and replaced by the newer birds?

Gakstatter: I defer to the GPS World’s military and government editor Don Jewell and retired GPS Chief Engineer Col. Mark Crews (ret.). Both say there will be no degradation of the L2 signal, gradual or otherwise.

Question #13: I had read an article that basically stated more frequencies would yield higher accuracies, especially vertical, over more satellites. Is this an accurate statement?

Gakstatter: I don’t believe just adding more signals to the same number of satellites will significantly improve accuracy. I believe that more satellites (thus improved satellite geometry) is the best way to improve accuracy, especially vertical. With a full constellation of GPS, GLONASS and Galileo, the number of satellites in view and the PDOP numbers would be incredibly good for high precision users.

Comment from Dr. Richard Langley, Editor of GPS World’s Innovation column:

Recall that delta-subscript v = VDOP x delta-subscript p where delta-subscript p is the measurement accuracy (pseudorange or carrier phase), if we can reduce delta-subscript p, then we can also reduce delta-subscript v. So yes, reducing VDOP with more satellites will help more but improvements in signal structure and receiver technology will also help. L5 signals, for example, should have lower multipath contamination and also less noise at low elevation angles.

Question #14: Why does L5 require a new antenna?

Gakstatter: It is broadcast on a significantly different frequency (1176.4 5Mhz) than L1 (1575.42 Mhz) and L2 (1227.60 Mhz).

Question #15: What effect will this have on static processed data?

Gakstatter: None with respect to the user interface. Behind the scenes, more data is collected and the algorithms of the post-processing software will change significantly. You may see a slight improvement in accuracy. .

Question #16: So how do you make yourself ready?

Gakstatter: I’ll be writing more about this in the future. Like I said in my webinar, twelve years from now is a long time. There is no rush to take action.

Question #17: With reference to my last question (Question #13), presumably no more L2 birds are being launched in the future; what is their expected lifespan?

Gakstatter: All planned GPS satellites include L2. It’s important to note that L2 isn’t being rendered obsolete. The government is simply reserving the right to change P(Y) on L2 which was originally designed for the military.

L2C code is the future of L2 for civilian users.

Question #18: Do you expect the government/public/DOT VRS CORS systems to be upgraded and established with L2C and/or L5 by the sunset date for the L1/L2 signal?

Gakstatter: I’d refer you to the NGS 10 year plan with respect to CORS. Otherwise, it is up to each individual public or private network (RTK or otherwise) to ensure their network is prepared to handle the sunset date of December 31, 2020.

Question #19: Let’s say I have my semi-codeless system L1/L2 and everything is fine on January. 1, 2021, but on January 2, 2021 I have an issue. What’s my alternative at that point?

Gakstatter: You might be able to use L1-only for post-processing, but you may even have an issue with that.

Question #20: If not planning to already, let listeners know what to spec now in new purchases to ensure equipment will work past 2020.

Gakstatter: I will work on that.

Question #21: Do antennas (ex. Trimble Zephyr) become obsolete, or just the receiver board itself? Or do both components become obsolete?

Gakstatter: It depends on which Zephyr model you are referring to. The newest Zephyr 2 supports:

• GPS: L1, L2, L5
• GLONASS: L1, L2, L3
• Galileo: E1, E2, E5, E6

This antenna will not be affected. In fact, all GPS dual-frequency antennas of today will be fine in tracking L1 and L2C. Only if you desire to utilize L5 might you need a new antenna.

Question #22: What happens to the old satellites? Do they just burn up as their orbit degrades and they approach earth?

Gakstatter: I deferred to the GPS World’s military and government editor Don Jewell and retired GPS Chief Engineer Col. Mark Crews (ret.):

There are definitely some people who believe that we should de-orbit all our satellites, but unless the satellite is just a few hundred miles above us in a Low Earth Orbit (LEO), it is simply not possible. The GPS satellites orbit in the Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) regime which is 20,200 kilometers (~12,000 miles), on average, above the surface of the Earth. When a satellite becomes too old or fails for some reason, it is boosted into a slightly higher orbit plane which puts it out of the way of any operational GPS satellites.

In recent years, through solid engineering and strategic thinking, some of the GPS satellites that were still functional, but would have normally been boosted up to a higher orbit, have been left in the operational MEO orbit plane and put to sleep or in standby mode for future use. Just recently some of these older GPS satellites have been reactivated. If we were to allow the satellites orbit to naturally decay from MEO, we will have been in our graves for thousands of years by the time they reach the Earth’s atmosphere, where they would burn-up on reentry.

Further comment from Dr. Richard Langley:

There is also the potential for collisions of dead satellites from different constellations (GPS, GLONASS, Galileo, etc.) as a result of the satellites drifting out of their assigned orbit bands over the next 100 years or so. The GLONASS folks are studying this and it was mentioned during Sergey Revnivykh’s presentation at the ION GNSS 2008 CGSIC meeting.

Question #23: Are there receivers on the market now anticipating the change?

Gakstatter: Yes, there are many survey receivers on the market right now that can utilize L2C and are prepared for L5. They are typically the premium-priced receivers offered by the manufacturers.

Question #24: Can you give a brand/model example of a GIS sub-foot receiver that might be affected?

Gakstatter: Trimble GeoXH, ProXH.

Question #25: Will L1 receivers using real time reference networks (e.g. Trimble GNSS VRS) be affected?

Gakstatter: I don’t believe there will be any affect.

Question #26: How will the CORS network be affected?

Gakstatter: Please refer to the NGS 10 year plan. I believe the NGS is preparing well for the transition. However, NGS doesn’t have control over most of the CORS stations. That’s a different story.

Question #27: Can you talk in general about accuracy comparison of the new L2C and L5 capabilities with current legacy RTK accuracy? Will we still need base stations?

Gakstatter: I touched on this in the webinar a bit. I don’t believe you’ll see a substantial increase in accuracy. I think you’ll see a substantial increase in reliability and robustness of the positions.

The way to achieve greater accuracy (vertical in particular) is more observations (eg. GLONASS and Galileo).

Question #28: Would GPS World plan on researching GPS manufacturers and their products that DO NOT support L2C at this time? We sell NovAtel OEMV and they have L2C, but what about the OEM4 we sold two years ago? An article on this would be nice as I can’t find it on their spec sheet.

Gakstatter: I think this is a good idea and the subject has been raised before. I’m not sure when it will happen, but I believe I will do something along these lines.

Question #29: Do you have any recommendations for a small startup land survey company? Wait for the new technology to come out or purchase what’s out there now?

Gakstatter: Well, I think it’s more of a business issue than a technology issue. I’ll make a bunch of assumptions when answering. Personally, I’d try to keep your capital investment as low as possible at this point.

If you only need post-processing, then a pair of L1-only static receivers is a relatively small investment (well under $10,000). Or, one GPS dual frequency receiver will do, and use an online positioning service like OPUS.

If you need RTK (real-time, centimeter-level positioning for staking/topo), then the price tag goes up. Do you have access to an RTK network? If so, then you only need an RTK rover and a data plan from a wireless provider like Sprint, AT&T, T-Mobile, etc.

If you need RTK and no RTK Network access, then you’ll need a RTK reference station also. Again, the price tag goes up. Another piece of equipment to consider (maybe in lieu of GPS) would be a robotic total station.

It all depends on what kind of projects your company will be involved in the majority of the time.

Question #30: Comment: GPS tech changes significantly every 1.5 to 2 years, while the useful lifetime of a receiver is on the order of 6 to 8 years. Proper planning will make this a non-issue.

Gakstatter: In general, I agree there’s plenty of time to plan for the transition. However, the fact is that some GPS equipment purchased in the early 1990’s is still working today and some legacy equipment purchased today will still be operating twelve years from now. This is especially true for survey receivers because the price tag is so high.

Question #31: Will my L1/L2 receivers still be able to collect L1 data for static computations?

Gakstatter: I believe they will, but caveat emptor.

Question #32: If I upgrade to L2C and not L5, what will my limitations be?

Gakstatter: You will be no worse off than you are today.

Question #33: Can we expect an increase in vertical positioning accuracy with the new L2C and L5 frequencies?

Gakstatter: I don’t believe so. For better vertical accuracy, the best bang for your buck will be more satellites (eg. GLONASS, Galileo). However, as stated in the answer to Question #13, there will be some gain in accuracy due to improvements in the code structure of both L2C and L5.

Question #34: Are the new satellites capable of maintaining our legacy signals, or is it totally out of the question?

Gakstatter: It’s not that the government wants to eliminate any signals, but rather they reserve the right to alter the military P(Y) signal on L2. After December 31, 2020, it may behave just like it does today or it may not, so yes, they do have the capability to have the satellites behave as they do today.

Question #35: Comment: I’m like your friend who expected his last purchase to carry him through to retirement. The way my retirement account is growing (negatively) I may still be carrying a range rod when this change occurs.

Gakstatter: I empathize. Maybe I’ll join you.

Question #36: will we still need two receivers to use RTK techniques?

Gakstatter: I also talked about this question during the webinar a bit. Yes, there will still be a need, but I think it will be more ubiquitous than it is today, primarily because of the proliferation of RTK networks and wireless communications technology. Because of this, I think you’ll see the need to operate your own RTK reference station diminishes significantly.

Question #37: How will this affect my processing software, such as Ashtech Office?

Gakstatter: Well, you’ll be okay until December 31, 2020. If there is an upgrade path that supports L2C, that might be a good move if your receiver supports L2C.

Question #38: How much will it cost, upgrading to L5?

Gakstatter: Please check with your local dealer or the manufacturer of your equipment.

Question #39: Does adding L1C into the mix have a great advantage?

Gakstatter: With respect to interoperability with Galileo, yes. With respect to the L1C code itself, it will be superior to its predecessor, L1 C/A, much like L2C/L5 and offer enhanced code and carrier tracking.

Question #40: With L2C only (no L5), is the cross correlation with the L1 C/A or will there be a new code on L1 as well?

Gakstatter: There is no new code on L1 at present. The two civilian codes are L1 C/A (the original) and L2C. On Block III GPS satellites, L1C is planned. Basically, a new and improved L1 C/A.

Question #41: How much is the difference between maintaining the legacy signals and not maintaining the signals?

Gakstatter: Again, I deferred to the GPS World’s military and government editor Don Jewell and retired GPS Chief Engineer Col. Mark Crews (ret.):

I assume you are talking about the difference in costs here, but this is really not a question pertinent to this issue, as we are currently not planning on doing away with any current signals. Both the L1 and the L2 signal structure, coded and codeless, will still be broadcast for the foreseeable future. The issue is that, after December 31, 2020, the flex-power capability may cause temporary problems in codeless and semi-codeless civilian receivers for periods of time while the satellites are in flex-power mode.

However, your question is pertinent in the general sense, as there are new GPS signals and frequencies coming on-board and there are those who believe that some of the old signal structures should be abandoned for the newer more capable signals. So far there have been no decisions made to abandon any of the current signals, only to make them stronger and more robust, with more anti-jam and anti-interference capabilities, which is one of the functions of flex-power that serves the war fighter.

There is also the possibility that flexible power mode will be modified by 2021 in such a way that it will not cause a L2 phase shift and affect civilian receivers that are using semi-codeless techniques.

Question #42: Is there a minimum baseline requirement for differential processing (RTK or otherwise) with dual frequency receivers? Will the change from L1/L2 to L1/L5 alter this?

Gakstatter: The minimum baseline won’t change. There really isn’t one for dual frequency GPS ,although very short baselines sometimes fare better with L1-only rather than L1/L2.

With regard to legacy L1/L2 vs. L1/L2C/L5, I believe you’ll have more robust solutions with the latter, and longer baseline processing will be enhanced.

Question #43: If we need dual frequency receivers for survey quality, wouldn’t three frequencies enhance ambiguity resolution and/or accuracy and precision?

Gakstatter: I believe ambiguity resolution will be enhanced (e.g. quicker and more reliable) due to better ionospheric correction with three frequencies. With regards to accuracy, I don’t see a significant improvement. As I mentioned before, the best way to enhance accuracy/precision (especially vertical) is signals from more satellites (e.g. GLONASS, Galileo, or GPS).

Question #44: After the sunset date will dual frequency not work at all, or just give bad data? How will we know if the signal has changed?

Gakstatter: Your receiver won’t be able to correctly resolve the integer ambiguity because of the phase shift. You won’t know until it happens. It’s not a permanent state either. Legacy receivers may work just fine for periods of time, but then may not for periods of time.

Referring back to the answer to Question #41, it is also possible that the US Government will find a way to resolve this situation where we will not see a phase shift at all.

Question #45: Will this enhance my L1 handheld accuracy at all?

Gakstatter: No. L1 C/A will remain the same.

Question #46: Comment: I know several surveyors who need to hear this conference. It was great. Please publish on the ‘net for access or email to us for distribution. Thank you.

Gakstatter: Thanks for listening and taking the time to comment. Pls feel free to forward this email or the links embedded in this email to those whom you think are interested. You can take in the webinar via the archived version here.

If I didn’t fully answer your questions or if it spawned more, please don’t hesitate to email me more questions and comments.

Well, if the economy is going to tank …

… at least our industry outlook is pretty good for the next five years. Hmmm … I guess I should clarify, because the survey/construction business is clearly slowing here in the United States (I probably don’t need to tell you that). But, if you want to look at a bright spot through all of the gloom and doom of today’s global economy, the GNSS industry is looking really good for the next five years.

Ok, I first need to apologize in advance for the shameless self-promotion, kind of. I co-authored a market research report on high precision GNSS which we just completed. The report covers the period 2008-2012 and discusses market growth, technology, trends, etc. for only high-precision (10cm or less) GNSS. Not just receivers themselves, but associated services such as augmentation (RTK Networks), distribution (dealers) and others.

Just in the course of writing this column twice a month, I often find myself humbled when writing about GNSS issues. The “more I learn, the more I learn how little I know” cliché really applies here. Authoring the report was no different and perhaps even more challenging because of its 214-page length and breadth of topics covered. It really opens one’s eyes as to how far GNSS has weaved its way into our lives and, even more enlightening, how far it still has to go.

Another thought: I just received an email from the people upstairs asking for bullet points to take to the budget meetings in hammering out the 2009 GPS World magazine budget. I really started thinking to myself; GNSS is one of the few industries I can think of that, even in a horrible global economy, is still going to experience growth over the next five years. We are fortunate indeed. Seriously, think of the executive running Starbucks. Imagine their forecasts for 2009? The first place people will look is to save is that $4 per day.

Looking at the hard numbers, the global value of GNSS goods and services in 2008 will end up being approximately $3 billion (all figures are in U.S. dollars). It’s predicted that it will grow to $6 billion to $8 billion by 2012. $6 billion is realistic growth, assuming a global economic downturn and softening of some commodity prices, which is already happening. A particularly bright spot is the robust agriculture market, where there is renewed growth in precision agriculture for GNSS, primarily in high-end RTK applications.

Looking at the above graphic, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in a realistic or expected scenario is 19 percent, while the optimistic CAGR is 23 percent. A significant portion of that growth is driven by widespread adoption of GNSS as a productivity tool. GNSS is transforming from a niche tool used in niche industries to an essential productivity tool in global industry sectors such as mining, agriculture and construction.

Breaking the growth down further, the traditional GNSS markets you are familiar with will experience the slowest growth: 16 percent to 21 percent CAGR. That’s to be expected given the steady adoption rate over the last twenty years.

Machine control applications will experience a growth of 23 percent to 28 percent CAGR. This isn’t a big surprise, as you’ve probably experienced the adoption of this technology in your daily work if you haven’t been involved with it yourself.

The highest growth area will be precision GNSS data services with a CAGR of 33 percent to 38 percent. This includes the GNSS reference station infrastructure and wireless communications needed to deliver data services over a region, such as with RTK networks and RTK clusters. Technology innovation and development will enable precise positioning with less complexity and lower cost, thus encouraging adoption and stimulating growth.

The steady shift in user demographics, continued evolution of space-based systems and precise positioning techniques combined with the growth of dedicated precision GNSS infrastructure and associated services are a recipe for a dynamic and rapidly changing business environment.

So, if you’re looking for a bright light in the darkness of global financial instability, GNSS is one to talk about – and you’re right in the middle of it.

If you want to read more about the report, there’s a 20-page abstract you can download from GPS World’s site by clicking here. You’ll have to fill out a short form in order to download the PDF, but the price is right, as in free.

Back to the Subject of Solar Activity

This is one of the more humbling subjects I’ve written about. As I mention above, as much as I write and try to stay on top of subjects, I seem to be a step behind at times. Fortunately, readers offer their help in times of need.

John Sumption from Colorado commented on my last column regarding solar activity. He opined:

It’s well worth noting that Solar Cycle 24 has not lived up to any of its advanced billing. In fact, so far, it’s been quite a dud.

A maximum in 2011 is now virtually impossible. A maximum in 2012 is unlikely. The 11-year solar cycle usually comprises four years of rise time to maximum, and seven years of fall time to minimum. Solar Cycle 23 maximum was in 2000. It has already been eight years of fall time, and Solar Cycle 24 has so far been anemic at best. Yesterday and today a couple very small sunspecks appeared, too small and insignificant to be officially counted, and they have already faded to invisibility.

There is active discussion across the blogosphere about Solar Cycles 23 and 24 and the possible implications. The official NOAA/NASA panel predictions you mention are expected to be “updated annually” as they say on the website. In conjunction with a Space Weather Workshop in May, the panel simply reiterated its predictions, there being insufficient data on which to base a significant change.

As you know the panel originally issued a split decision; six of the panelists predicting larger than normal, six predicting smaller. The lack of Solar Cycle 24 activity continues to outpace the official predictions, and so far, even the six low-side forecasters seem to have overestimated Cycle 24.

An updated prediction from this group should not be expected before Spring 2009. However, theirs is not the only forecast. IPS, the Australian Space Weather Agency, recently acknowledged the lack of activity and pushed their forecast another six months down the road.

Jan Janssens maintains a table which contains most of the published predictions. Note that this table has not been updated in the past 12 months, as Solar Cycle 24 continues to behave unexpectedly, and forecasters have little or no additional insight on which to base new predictions.

You’ll see in the table, no. 8, by Maris et al, reasons that Solar Cycle 24 will be small, because of the loss of energy through intense solar flares during the declining phase of Cycle 23.

One of the most highly-experienced solar forecasters, Ken Schatten, has been wondering if the energy lost to the solar wind through low-latitude coronal holes – which are unusual at solar minimum – has left the sun with too little energy to produce more energetic spots.

Finally, an unpublished paper (but you can find it on the web) by Livingston and Penn of the Kitt Peak Observatory notes the trend of decreased contrast between sunspots and the sun, and that if the trend continues, sunspots would vanish entirely by 2015.

Now, you can choose to agree or disagree,  but I think John’s correct in that, so far, Solar Cycle 24 is not gearing up to be what pessimists (or optimists, depending on your attitude) that it might be. Further, he adds:

I also should have mentioned this – from a NASA media teleconference last week about the Ulysses solar probe mission. I think the results would tend to support Schatten’s idea of the sun having an energy “leak” somewhere.

Thanks for the insight and links, John.

Solar Activity: Is There Aspirin for This GNSS Headache?

Like the hurricane/cyclone/typhoon seasons that occur every year around the globe, one fact of life about GNSS is space weather and the solar cycle. For professionals who use GNSS on a regular basis, it’s easy to forget about it since it’s not an annual event. In fact, those of you who have been using GNSS for only the past five years haven’t experienced it at all. Why? It’s an 11 year cycle, and it’s starting to heat up.

How does Solar Activity affect GNSS?

There are many, many papers on this subject that can offer you a lot of depth on this subject; just google “solar cycle GPS.” In my Eric Gakstatterish sort of way, I’ll write a brief description of how it affects GNSS.

The effect on GPS signals as they pass through the ionosphere is the largest single source of error that we see in GNSS today. Essentially, free electrons contained in the ionosphere affect the propagation of the signal as it passes through. Since the signals are traveling at the speed of light and GNSS is based on nanosecond timing, it doesn’t take much interference to introduce error.

For a graphic and more detailed information on the ionosphere, click here.

Modeling the Total Electron Content (TEC) of the ionosphere is something you may have heard of when reading about GNSS. TEC is directly affected by solar activity, and thus the solar cycle.

The solar cycle is an 11-year cycle of solar activity. Following is a nice graphic from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) that’s on their Solar Cycle 24 web page. Solar Cycle 24 is the name of the solar cycle we are entering into.

From the graphic above, you can see the height of the next solar cycle will occur in the 2011-2012 timeframe. That’s when the TEC will be the most dynamic and the most difficult to model. You might also note that there are two prediction curves (along with their uncertainties); this is because even the experts can’t agree on just how big the next cycle will be.

 

Which GNSS users will it affect the most?

GPS L1 (single frequency) users will be affected the most. GPS uses a rough model, often referred to as Klobuchar (a scientist’s name), in an attempt to the model the ionosphere and minimize the effect for single frequency users. When the model closely resembles the actual TEC, then the TEC has minimal effect on single frequency accuracy and you are a happy user. When the actual TEC is much different than the Klobuchar estimate, that’s when the problem occurs. It’s sort of like that moment when you figure out you estimated 200 man-hours on a project that will take 500 man-hours … oops.

During the low point of the solar cycle is when the TEC is easiest to predict. Looking at the chart above, we are currently at the low point and really have been in a nice place since about 2004. Over the next two or three years, it’s going to change dramatically as the character of the cycle is such that it rises sharply in the beginning.

Autonomous GPS (using no correction source) accuracy has been very good these past couple of years (2-3 meters under ideal conditions). Because it’s been so good, some of you are relying on it for mapping. The increase in solar activity will affect you the most.

You will see some really funky data.

For those of you professional single-frequency GPS receivers who have built up confidence in your sub-meter mapping receivers, you need to be particularly aware. It would not be out of the ordinary for your DGPS-corrected position to have an error of more than 10 meters. That includes WAAS, DGPS beacon, commercial DGPS services, and post-processed solutions. In theory, if the accuracy of DGPS corrections (SBAS, DGPS) deteriorates sufficiently, you should be forewarned. However, how your particular piece of equipment handles that warning is up to each manufacturer.

Practically speaking, those errors aren’t going to occur on a daily basis. That would only occur during extreme solar storms. In fact, that order of magnitude will probably be quite rare, but certainly additional error in the 0.5-meter or 1-meter range will be more common than what you see now. The fantastic performance we are seeing today from autonomous GPS as well as SBAS isn’t just because of improved technology; it’s also due to the fact that we are in low point in the solar cycle.

Users of dual-frequency GPS receivers and multiple-frequency GNSS receivers will be affected less, but still affected. Ambiguity resolution will take longer (or not be achievable at all) during periods of heightened solar activity. However, these systems will fare better than their single-frequency brethren as multiple frequencies and shorter baseline distances typical of multiple-frequency users make it much easier to model the TEC.

Interestingly enough, this solar cycle ,with its effects diminishing after about 2016, should be the last one where we will have such concern. Think about it: it will be 2023 or so before Solar Cycle 25 starts to crank up. At that time, L2C, L5 and GPSIII will be in full bloom, not to mention Galileo and GLONASS, so the ability of our GNSS equipment to model and mitigate the effects of TEC will be much more advanced than it is today.

What can you do about it in the meantime?

First of all, educate yourself and understand your equipment’s exposure to solar activity. Here are some great links.

GPS World article from May 2003

NOAA Solar Cycle 24 Prediction issued April 2007

NASA feature article on the beginning of Solar Cycle 24

www.spaceweather.com

My esteemed GPS World colleague Richard Langley from the University of New Brunswick has also tackled this subject; he can provide you with the Richard Langleyish, scientific perspective.

Next, towards the end of 2009, make it a point to start checking up on solar activity. A great place for Europeans to do this is at the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium’s website. The U.S. National Weather Service also operates the Space Weather Prediction Center. Also, note that for those users along the equator, your area is more susceptible to dynamic TEC changes.

There is no doubt you will hear more and more about the impending solar cycle as it ramps up: more research, more data collection, and more analysis. Some space weather experts say this cycle will be worse than the last, some say it won’t. However, there’s one thing they all agree on: we won’t know until it’s here.

ION GNSS Conference – Not This Year

Well, it wasn’t meant to be. Hurricane Ike made sure of that.

I travel quite a bit and I never fly Continental Airlines, but there aren’t a lot of choices when flying to Savannah, Georgia from Portland, Oregon. So a couple of months ago, I booked my flight to Savannah on Continental with a connection in Houston, Texas.

Hurricanes and Houston don’t mix well this time of year. Anyway, Hurricane Ike wreaked havoc on southeast Texas. Houston’s airports were closed for the weekend (my flight was supposed to depart last Sunday). Continental, being a small airline with limited routes, couldn’t get me to Savannah until Wednesday night at the earliest. Other airlines were jammed up trying to reroute people around the Hurricane-affected airports.

So be it … no ION conference for me this year. Too bad, it’s my favorite conference of the year because I get to see where companies and organizations are putting their research effort which, in turn, gives me a good idea where GNSS technology for surveying/construction is heading.

At ION, one of the things I was scheduled to do was give a presentation at the Civil GPS Service Interface Committee (CGSIC) meeting on Monday. This year is the first time the CGSIC is allocating GPS World a slot on the agenda. The topic of my presentation was entitled “WAAS for Mapping: It Works Where You Work.” So, instead of presenting it at ION this year, here you go.

First of all, let me tell you that even though the applications featured are focused on WAAS, this is really about SBAS (satellite-based augmentation systems) in general. That includes MSAS (Japan), EGNOS (Europe) and soon, GAGAN (India).

Trends in GPS mapping

The user community expects GNSS technology products to become smaller, cheaper, simpler, and higher performance.

For the most part, we have seen that trend develop in the past decade. GPS mapping products have migrated from heavy, backpack-based systems with a medium-sized dome antenna, DOS-based data collector, VHS recorder batteries, antenna cable, data collector cable, and power cable to the small handheld devices and small receiver boxes of today. Likewise, prices have fallen considerably. The market prices for a sub-meter mapping system are 50 percent to 60 percent 60 less than a decade ago.

The GPS mapping user community is moving away from post-process differential correction and towards real-time correction.

The reason is quite simple: simplicity and cost. Post-processing is a pain and it’s expensive. It’s not just the cost of the software and software maintenance contracts, it’s the personnel training to stay current on the software, it’s the cost of time to post-process and it’s the cost of not having real-time data in the field. Yes, there is a cost of not having timely data.

One of the arguments for post-processing is that it’s more accurate. From a pure scientific standpoint, that’s a correct statement, but it’s crazy to make that sort of general statement. I could show you data that shows that statement is correct and also incorrect. Like most answers to GPS accuracy questions, the answer is, it depends: it depends on the receiver, it depends on the application, it depends on your personnel qualifications, etc.

SBAS makes real-time GPS correction simple and cheap, as in free. WAAS has matured over the last five years since it was declared operational from providing 1 meter to 3 meter accuracy to where it is today, providing accuracies of well under a meter in the continental United States, Alaska, Mexico, and most parts of Canada. The simplicity and low-cost of SBAS makes sub-meter mapping attainable by a larger percentage of the user community.

All WAAS (SBAS)-Enabled Receivers Aren’t Created Equal

One of the common experiences with WAAS (SBAS) in mapping applications is that the user will attempt to use a consumer-grade GPS unit (eg. Garmin) and, predictably, the performance will be poor. Consumer-grade GPS units aren’t designed for accuracy. They are designed for fast satellite acquisition, low-power consumption, low-cost, and easy user interface.

I don’t know if you’ve been paying attention, but the newer consumer-grade GPS units don’t mention SBAS like they used to. It’s because the difference between autonomous positioning and WAAS-corrected positioning isn’t a significant issue with respect to the average GPS consumer who is navigating from point A to point B. Go look at the mapping Handhelds section on the Garmin website. There is no mention of WAAS in the specs. The reason? Garmin doesn’t care about WAAS for the ground user.

If the GPS manufacturer does care about WAAS for ground users, there is a lot they can do to optimize the use of WAAS (SBAS) so it can perform in environments where a standard WAAS-enabled receiver couldn’t dream of working. One technical paper on this subject was published by Stanford University and presented at the ION conference in 2006. Euiho Kim, Todd Walter, and David Powell from Stanford presented a paper entitled Optimizing WAAS Accuracy/Stability for a Single Frequency Receiver.

Some manufacturers have done this and more to exploit WAAS so it can be used in environments where a receiver implementing the traditional use of WAAS couldn’t. I can write about this until I’m blue in the face, but the proof is how the user community is using WAAS with high-performance receivers in applications where many people say WAAS can’t be used. I know of a few of them around North America and have provided a short synopsis of each to give you an idea.

Applications of WAAS in North America

Company: J.D. Irving Ltd.
Employees: 15,000
Industry: Forest products
Location: Eastern Canada
Application: harvesting timber
User Statement: “The general misconception is that WAAS doesn’t work under forest canopy. (For us) It’s proven to be a false assumption if the right receiver is used.”

Company: American Forest Management, Inc.
Employees: 250
Industry: Forest management
Location: Virginia to Texas, Maine to Michigan
Application: Area calculations, forest road work, land owner mapping
User Statement: “Our field efficiency has drastically increased due to reliable reception and ease of use … office productivity also increased because of real-time correction.”

 

Company: Portland General Electric
Employees: 2,600
Industry: utility
Location: Oregon
Application: utility pole mapping
User Statement: “Four years ago, we started out using low-end WAAS receivers, but switched to mapping-grade WAAS receivers after 60 days due to accuracy problems. 225,000 poles and four years later, we are still using the same WAAS receivers.”

Company: State of Minnesota
Employees: a bunch
Industry: state government
Location: Minnesota
Application: mapping abandoned chemical facilities
User Statement: “Approximately 500 facilities were mapped using a Bluetooth, sub-meter WAAS GPS and a Windows Mobile data collector. Wireless technology eliminated connectivity problems and the receivers had COAST technology, consistently giving us submeter, real-time results, even in areas that had poor visibility.”

Company: U.S. National Park Service
Industry: federal government
Location: sub-arctic Alaska
Application: map archaeological sites
User statement: “Many mapping grade GPS users still do not feel good about relying on WAAS. You can always post-process, but after reading these numbers, some may ask why bother?”

Other Related Trends in Real-Time GPS Mapping

Not only is WAAS (SBAS) being exploited by some manufacturers of sub-meter GPS mapping equipment, some manufacturers have introduced survey receivers that also exploit WAAS, but use another satellite observable for centimeter-level positioning rather than using the WAAS correction itself.

In optimal scenarios, this potentially adds another two observables when resolving ambiguities for RTK positioning.When manufacturers start designing products around a technology, it speaks highly of the future of that technology.

RTK networks (RTN) are experiencing explosive growth around the world.

It’s a relatively new technology that will add to the proliferation of real-time users for both RTK and sub-meter mapping systems. RTN’s primarily cover metro areas at this time, but some countries have recently announced the implementation of country-wide RTNs. Look for more editorial coverage on this in the future.

Commercial DGPS services have shifted from offering L1 sub-meter DGPS products to decimeter L1/L2 products in certain regions in the world.

DGPS signal providers have recognized that WAAS/SBAS fills the requirement for sub-meter corrections where it’s available. They haven’t stopped offering L1 sub-meter DGPS corrections, but certainly have shifted their focus to the GPS L1/L2 market.

On The Not-So-Positive Side of Things

We’ve enjoyed many years of relatively quiet ionospheric activity. In a sense, we’ve taken for granted the awesome increase of GPS accuracy (both autonomous and DGPS). This is going to change as the next solar cycle cranks up. It’s an 11 year cycle that began early this year and will reach its high point in 2011 or 2012.

What’s so bad about solar activity?

For GPS users, errors induced by significant ionospheric activity can be measured in meters or even tens of meters even if you are using a DGPS correction source such as WAAS, beacon or RTN. Some experts say the next solar cycle will be worse than average. Some say not. All of them say “we won’t know until it’s here.”

Read more about Solar Cycle 24 here. The subject is worthy of an entire article; which I will write in the coming months.

Be sure to watch the live coverage that my fellow editors will be providing from the ION GNSS conference in Savannah this week.

Civil P(Y) follow-up and ION GNSS

I figure it’s about time for a follow-up newsletter on the Civil P(Y) sunset proposal by the GPS Wing.

In June, I wrote a very important column about the GPS Wing proposing to discontinue supporting P(Y) on L1/L2 for civilian users after December 31, 2020. Essentially it would mean that many dual frequency receivers of today will be rendered obsolete after that date.

The U.S. Department of Commerce attempted to solicit comments from the public regarding the proposal. You can view the responses here. I was somewhat surprised at how few responses were submitted.

It is predictable that equipment manufacturers are in favor of the proposal. There is significant upside for them in terms of new equipment sales and little downside, if any at all. The objections again, predictably, are from the users in the trenches who have invested a significant amount of their own capital into high precision GPS equipment.

I can see a several reasons for the lack of responses:

• Users aren’t aware of that impact this may have on their operations.
• It’s too far in the future for users to be concerned.
• It’s far enough in the future that users feel technology will change and render this a non-issue.

Of course, I think it’s a little bit of all three. The first is the one that concerns me the most. That’s why I supported an extension to the comment period (30 days). I strongly believe there is a general lack of awareness of the subject at all, not to mention the impact it will have. If surveyors/technicians around the world haven’t been keeping up with the trade publications these past three months, they have no clue what’s in store for them.

The second and third assume the user is educated on the issue and has made conscious decision not to be concerned.

A few of you asked for a list of specific model numbers which will be affected. I’m working on one, but I don’t think it will ever be comprehensive enough to be 100 percent complete. What I tell people is that if the receiver isn’t able to utilize at least L2C (preferably L5 also), then it’s considered a legacy receiver and will be affected by the GPS Wing’s proposal. If you have any question as to whether your receiver can utilize L2C, you should contact the manufacturer of the equipment. Keep in mind that most companies begin to phase out support for older products (so called EOL or end of life models) after a few years, and some manufacturers may no longer exist at all.

If you confirm your receiver uses legacy technology, I wouldn’t be in a panic to take action now. I have a feeling that manufacturers will offer some sort of trade-in program at some point. It may not be for another 7 to 10 years from now, but I think they will. The exception would be that if prices for high precision GNSS receivers drop dramatically (looking out 7 to 10 years from now) because of fierce competition, they will be so low that manufacturers won’t be able to afford it. But then you probably won’t care as much anyway.

As I mentioned in the last newsletter (about the ESRI conference), I spoke briefly with Col. Madden, Commander of the GPS Wing, about the Civil P(Y) sunset proposal. Quite a straight-forward guy if I can say so. He says that maintaining backward compatibility in GPS is becoming increasingly expensive and that they have to draw the line somewhere.

“Whether it’s 10 or 20 years, we don’t care,” said Madden. “But we need to put a marker down.” He said it currently costs $2.5 million per day to maintain GPS. In 2009, he said that cost will rise to $3.5 million to $4 million per day.

The December 31, 2020 date is not final yet, but all indications are that it will indeed be the date. I should learn more at the Institute of Navigation (ION) GNSS conference held in Savannah, Georgia in a couple of weeks.

I’m at ION

Speaking of the ION GNSS conference, I’m on the agenda for the CGSIC meeting prior to the conference. The DOT has been pushing their NDGPS agenda pretty hard this past year to try to save the program. That’s fine, but I get a little ticked off every time I hear them tell people that WAAS isn’t a valid technology for mapping. Hey, if you think NDGPS is the way to go for you, then talk about NDGPS and stop trying to bring down other programs to further your cause.

So anyway, I think a little equal time is in order. I’ll be presenting on how WAAS is being used for mapping. I picked out a half a dozen or so organizations around North America that are using WAAS with high performance GPS receivers. There are some neat examples of where WAAS is being used in places you might not think possible, and also how WAAS is being used by centimeter-level GPS equipment to speed up initialization times.

I’m sorry I can’t include examples of EGNOS (Europe) and MSAS (Japan) users in the presentation, but I’ve only got 15 to 20 minutes. But I’ll be sure to mention EGNOS, MSAS, and GAGAN as well. I know you are all alive and well.

Be sure to follow the live coverage that I and my fellow editors will be providing from Savannah the week of Sept. 15-19.

Attending the Annual ESRI Networking Conference

As much as surveyors, engineers and constructors may not appreciate geographic information systems (GIS) technology, at some point everyone should attend at least the ESRI Survey/Engineering Summit and the first couple of days of the ESRI User Conference held every summer in San Diego, California. This is not a GIS sales pitch. It’s a networking sales pitch. When other conferences are struggling to maintain attendance levels, the ESRI conferences seemingly never fail to grow in attendance. This year, it attracted some 15,000 people from 120 countries. That means gobs of GIS people, and also gobs of surveyors and engineers.

The Survey/Engineering Summit is a much smaller subset with some 500 attendees, and takes place the weekend before the User Conference. This year, it was the first weekend in August. Although relatively small in size, the conference is significant enough to attract someone the caliber of Col. Dave Madden as a keynote speaker. Col. Madden is the U.S. Air Force GPS Wing Commander, and as such he’s in charge of GPS. With a fiscal 2009 budget of $1.5B, it is the fourth largest budget in the U.S. Air Force. That means he has some clout, and that’s the quality of speaker that the ESRI conferences have the ability to attract.

It’s All About Networking

Most times, I’m like you: worried about the day-to-day stuff of running a business or department, or just getting stuff done on time and on budget. CEUs are hard enough to keep up with, not to mention taking a few days off during prime outdoor season (and spending a chunk of change) to attend a GIS conference.

But I tell you what; this is the place to mix it up with all kinds of people beyond your local association chapter. Not that there’s anything wrong with that, but I guarantee that networking with 15,000 people will open your eyes a lot wider than networking with 25 people. If you’re looking to expand your business, whether it’s GIS-related or not, you will probably meet someone in San Diego who is doing it already.

Take, for example, Michael Dennis of Geodetic Analysis LLC. Have a question about geodesy? Here’s a guy who gave a presentation entitled “GPS, Geodesy and the Ghost in the Machine.” Part of his presentation included dissecting National Geodetic Survey (NGS) Datasheets. Mind you, there’s a half dozen NGS people in the crowd! Sort of like giving a presentation on Windows to Bill Gates, isn’t it? That’s the kind of expertise walking around at this conference.

While I’m on the subject of NGS, they had a whole pack of people there. Soon-to-retire director Dave Zilkowski gave a lunch-time presentation to approximately 200 attendees. Want to talk to the manager for CORS at NGS? He was there. Want to talk to someone at NGS about network RTK? Bill Henning was there. Want to talk to someone at NGS about OPUS? Yep, there too.

What other opportunity do you have to sit down and have some face time with this caliber of people?

Back to Col. Madden

The theme of his presentation was about how the GPS Wing needs to improve on executing their strategy. A big part of what he was alluding to was keeping the schedule on target for the different programs. For example, there’s no navigation message on L2C and he said there won’t be until 2011, when the control segment (OCS) systems are upgraded. There won’t be a navigation message for L5 either until 2011, even though the first Block IIF (L5) satellite will be launched next year. It’s a good example of the space segment (satellites) and control segment (ground infrastructure) not being in sync. The L2C pilot carrier is available now, so carrier phase users (centimeter-level) are still able to use L2C carrier while utilizing the navigation message from L1.

When he was on the subject of keeping schedules, I asked Col. Madden about launch schedules — more specifically, keeping the schedule that they set. He said two things.

First of all, they need to do a better job of giving realistic launch dates. They move a lot. The seventh Block IIR-M satellite was due to launch last June and has been pushed out until October. The eighth, and last, Block IIR-M satellite was pushed out until December. Also, the first Block IIF satellite, in which an early 2009 date has been floated for quite some time, doesn’t look like it will be put into orbit until August 2009 or later.

Secondly, and most importantly, he said it’s all about the $$. Launching satellites is an expensive business. He said “it takes $60 to 70 million to build a GPS satellite and its $200 million for the launch vehicle.”

As successful as GPS is, Col. Madden is fighting for budget dollars like other program managers. As I mentioned above, he’s got the fourth largest budget in the US Air Force. When Congress looks at areas to save money, it’s easy for someone to say “Just cut 10 percent from GPS and we’ll save $150 million!” Also, it doesn’t help that there are now 31 operational satellites, way more than the guaranteed minimum constellation of 24. The problem is that, as high precision users, we need every one of those 31 operational satellites. We need to continue to raise our hand from the back of the room and be counted.

I know it’s hard, but plan for the ESRI conference next July. I know, I know, it’s prime field season. But, give it a chance and you can take a lot from it. Like I wrote above, don’t look at it as a GIS conference, but rather a networking conference. It may change your business model or even your career path. You’ll have the opportunity to talk to more people than you have in years.