Luch-5A, the Russian geostationary communications satellite that carries a System for Differential Correction and Monitoring (SDCM) transponder, has started transmitting GPS corrections according to Javad Ashjaee, CEO of Javad GNSS. He has reported that L1 signals using PRN code 140 have been received by Javad receivers today and used to compute code-differential positions. Only GPS corrections are being received currently, no GLONASS corrections.
As previously reported through CANSPACE, Luch-5A was recently repositioned to 95 degrees east longitude in an apparent switch of positions with Luch-5B, scheduled for launch later this year. Now, it appears, Luch-5A is using the PRN code previously assigned by the Global Positioning Systems Directorate to Luch-5B.
Artist’s rendering of the SES-5. Photo: CANSPACE Listserv
News courtesy of CANSPACE Listserv.
The SES-5 geostationary communications satellite (also known as Sirius 5 and Astra 4B) was launched from the Baikonur Cosmodrome on July 9 at precisely 18:38:29.994 UTC. After a number of manoeuvres by the various rocket stages, the satellite was released from the Breeze-M upper stage into its geostationary transfer orbit (GTO) at 03:50:15.150 UTC on July 10.
The planned GTO has a perigee height of 4,170 km, an apogee height of 35,786 km, and an orbital inclination of 23.1 degrees. The satellite’s apogee-kick motor should place the satellite into its geostationary Earth orbit (GEO) within the next few days. The GEO sub-satellite point will be at 5 degrees east longitude.
SES-5 hosts a dual-frequency transponder for the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS). The pseudorandom noise codes to be used by the satellite are not yet known.
“SES-5 is an important addition to our fleet serving both our commercial and government customer with our first L-band payload for EGNOS to augment the GPS system for Europe. This is a great accomplishment by all of the teams who worked on the SES-5 mission — SES, ILS, Khrunichev, and Space Systems/Loral — and we thank them for their dedicated work on the successful launch,” said SES President and CEO, Romain Bausch.
The Russian SBAS satellite, Luch-5A, has been repositioned so that its sub-satellite longitude is 95 degrees east. The satellite had been drifting from its original geostationary position at 58.5 degrees east longitude since about May 30.
The orbital slot of 95 degrees east had been previously announced for Luch-5B, so perhaps Luch-5A is switching positions with Luch-5B, which is scheduled for launch on August 30, although a recent Roscosmos presentation indicates the launch might not happen until October.
Luch-5A is the first of a set of three geostationary satellites being launched to reactivate Roscosmos’s Luch Multifunctional Space Relay System. The system will be used to relay communications and telemetry between low-Earth-orbiting spacecraft, such as the the Russian segment of International Space Station, and Russian ground facilities.
The satellites also carry transponders for the System for Differential Correction and Monitoring (SDCM), Russia’s satellite-based augmentation system. The transponders will broadcast GNSS corrections on the standard GPS L1 frequency using C/A PRN codes assigned by DoD’s Global Positioning Systems Directorate. Luch-5A was assigned PRN 125; Luch-5B, PRN 140; and Luch-5V (previously called Luch-4), PRN 141.
According to a spokesperson from the Space and Missile Systems Center, GPS Directorate, the Russian Space Agency (RSA) has been assigned L1 pseudorandom noise (PRN) C/A codes for its System of Differential Correction and Monitoring (SDCM) transponders on the Luch series of geostationary relay satellites.
SDCM is a satellite-based augmentation system that will be compatible with the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration’s Wide Area Augmentation System, the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service, and Japan’s MTSAT Satellite-based Augmentation System.
The SDCM transponders will be hosted on the satellites of the Luch Multifunctional Space Relay System (Mnogofunktsional’noi Kosmicheskoi Sistemy Retranslyatsii). In addition to seven transponders in the Ku-and S-bands to be used to relay communications and telemetry between low-Earth-orbiting spacecraft (such as the Russian segment of the International Space Station) and Russian ground facilities, the satellites will host COSPAS/SARSAT search and rescue transponders, as well as the SDCM transponders.
The first of the new Luch satellites, Luch-5A, was launched on December 11, 2011. The satellite has passed the initial inspection carried out at its temporary location at about 58.5 degrees east longitude. According to published documents, Luch-5A will eventually be relocated to its designated operational location at 16 degrees west longitude.
Two more Luch satellites are to be launched: Luch-5B, scheduled for launch around the end of August 2012 into an orbit at 95 degrees east longitude and Luch-5V (“V” is the transliteration of the third letter in the Russian alphabet) in 2014 into an orbit at 167 degrees east longitude (Luch-5V replaces the previously designed Luch-4 satellite).
The C/A codes assigned to the Luch SDCM transponders are as follows: Luch-5A, PRN 125; Luch-5B, PRN 140; and Luch-5V (Luch-4), PRN 141. Notification of the assignments was sent to the RSA on December 20, 2011.
No signals from the Luch-5A SDCM transponder have yet been detected by the monitoring stations of the International GNSS Service.
According to the GLONASS Information-Analytical Centre, proposals made at a December 27, 2011 meeting on the status and future of the satellite constellation included one to expand the GLONASS constellation to 30 satellites using six orbital planes. Five other options for upgrading the constellation were also aired, a draft of the tactical and technical requirements for GLONASS in 2025 was reviewed, and a report was given on the status the Glonass-K2 satellite under construction and the timing of the start of flight tests.
Present at the meeting of the Presidium of the TsNIImash Council, held in the Moscow suburb of Korolyov, were Yuri Urlichich, general director and general designer of the Joint Stock Company (JSC) Russian Space Systems, and Sergey Revnivykh, TsNIImash deputy director general, among others. TsNIImash (the Central Research Institute of Machine Building) is the arm of Roscosmos, the Russian Federal Space Agency, with responsibility for civil aspects of GLONASS.
A press conference following the meeting discussed the six options for upgrading the constellation, foremost among them the six-plane, 30-satellite concept. The other options include adding one more satellite to each of the existing three planes, but that would involve rephasing almost all of the operating satellites, which could cause many problems, according to Urlichich. Another option would add a reserve satellite to each operating satellite, but that option had already been rejected. Adding three new planes to the constellation, each with two satellites, is the leading option; Urlichich said this would be considered in detail over the next few months.
It is not clear how the present frequency division multiple access (FDMA) channel spectrum used by GLONASS could handle 30 satellites. As indicated in the current publicly available version of the GLONASS Interface Control Document (version 5.1, dated 2008), there are 14 available channels (channel numbers from -7 to +6), with antipodal satellites sharing the same channel. It appears that this arrangement can only handle a maximum of 28 satellites. However, at least one recent GLONASS spectrum plot shows GLONASS channels going from -7 to +8, rather than to +6 as in the ICD. Such an expansion to 16 channels could support 32 satellites and is a partial return to the pre-2005 use of higher frequency channels, although the Russians had previously agreed to abandon their earlier use of the higher channels to avoid interfering with radio astronomers’ use of the 1610.6-1613.8 MHz observation band to observe the spectral line of the hydroxyl molecule.
Nevertheless, the six-plane concept is still only just that — a concept — and the Russian Defense Ministry among others would have to get on board for it to go ahead.
SBAS. Information on the Russian satellite-based augmentation system, the System for Differential Correction and Monitoring or SDCM, was also revealed during the press conference. SDCM will use a global ground network of monitoring stations and transponders on the Luch Multifunctional Space Relay System geostationary communication satellites to transmit correction and integrity data using the GPS L1 frequency. The first of these satellites, Luch-5A, was launched on 11 December.
Luch-5A is temporally located in a stable geostationary orbit at about 58.5 degrees east longitude according to U.S. tracking data. Testing of the satellite is being carried out at this location but it will eventually be deployed to 16 degrees west longitude for operational use. It was announced during the press conference that SDCM testing is to start after the Russian Christmas holidays.
Negotiations for additional SDCM ground stations in Australia, Indonesia, Brazil, and Nicaragua are ongoing to provide adequate coverage in the southern hemisphere. If one or more of the proposed ground stations cannot be realized, then additional stations at Russia’s Antarctic research bases could be deployed, Urlichich said. SDCM already has stations at the Bellingshausen and Novolazarevskaya research bases. Presentations by TsNIImash staff at international meetings have indicated that additional stations could be installed at the Progress and Russkaya Antarctic bases. According to Urlichich, the SDCM stations on Russian territory could be sufficient for northern hemisphere coverage.
Free downloadable software Toolkits at www.egnos-portal.eu can help cell-phone and handheld receiver developers enhance location and timing applications with GPS corrrection data from the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) satellite-based augmentation system.
The Toolkits include software packages, demo applications, and supporting materials, enabling application developers, researchers, university students, and others to create, use, and maintain EGNOS-capable positioning applications.
For handheld receiver manufacturers and mobile-phone developers, the Toolkit contains free source code for easy integration of EGNOS capabilities into a smartphone, and all the necessary files for the demonstration application, for use as a basis for a new application, as well as core libraries, to integrate enhanced EGNOS positioning capability into an existing application.
For the simply curious, an EGNOS Toolkit provides a means of exploring and understanding the entire chain from the raw GNSS satellite signal to enhanced EGNOS positioning data.
The development kit provides an easy way incorporate all EGNOS corrections and integrity capabilities, allowing developers to perform real EGNOS integration directly into a smartphone. It works with different operating systems, including Android, Apple, and RIM.
Static and kinematic tests show that EGNOS performs well in both cases: “The EGNOS SDK provides an average increase of 30 percent in position accuracy over GPS alone,“ according to developer DKE Aerospace.
EGNOS Software Development Kit provides a software receiver to enhance GPS positions, displaying position accuracy increases on average of 30 percent.
DOT Blank Stare on LightSquared
The U.S. Department of Transportation (DoT) responded to a Freedom of Information Act (FOIA) request by GPS World for its recommendations to the National Telecommunications and Information Administration (NTIA) regarding LightSquared interference with GPS. The DoT wrote, “We are withholding two pages [of thirteen relevant pages] in part and eleven pages in their entirety,” and enclosed two completely blacked-out pages.
Kathy Ray, DoT FOIA officer, added, “We have determined that the release of the redacted and withheld portions would foreseeably cause harm to the government’s deliberative process.”
The blacked-out DOT letter is dated August 25, 2011. How it differs from the agency’s July 21 “LightSquared Impact Assessment,” publicly available courtesy of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology, cannot, of course, be known.
The Department of Homeland Security wrote in response to GPS World’s FOIA request, “We conducted a comprehensive search of files with the Science and Technology Directorate’s Homeland Security Enterprise and First Responders Group, and Cyber Security Division for records that would be responsive to your request. Unfortunately, we were unable to locate or identify any responsive records.”
The National Institute of Standards and Technology of the Department of Commerce replied, “NIST has no documents that are responsive to your request.”
The Department of the Interior provided the same documents that were previously made public by the House committee.
The National Aeronautics and Space Administration made a similar determination, but did not send a document, referring instead directly to the committee’s public website.
PNT Board Hears Proposal for LightSquared Solution
The November 9 meeting of the National Space-Based Position Navigation and Timing (PNT) Advisory Board in Alexandria, Virginia got several earfulls regarding the LightSquared/GPS controversy. One of seven speakers on a two-hour panel, Javad Ashjaee, president and CEO of JAVAD GNSS, demonstrated his company’s newly developed filter technology that he said could protect GPS receivers from LightSquared broadband network interference.
As Ashjaee stated, the proposed solution does not protect against interference from the so-called high-10 signals, one of two bands (the other is known as the low-10) for which LightSquared has received a conditional waiver. Unless and until a solution for the terrestrial high-10 signals is found, LightSquared transmissions in that band will still interfere with the GPS signal. The technical solution proposed by JAVAD GNSS addressed only the low-10 band.
Proposed filter to “harden” high-precision GPS receivers against Lightsquared Lower 10 (click to enlarge.)
The JAVAD GNSS proposed fix consists, in simplified form, of a ceramic filter followed by a series of surface acoustic wave (SAW) filters.
A PDF of Ashjaee’s 76-slide Powerpoint demonstration, without his verbal explanations and commentary, along with other presentations from the board meeting, are available at www.pnt.gov/advisory/2011/11/. A December 8 GPS World webinar reprised the same presentation, and the download at env-gpsworld-integration.kinsta.cloud/webinar includes audio of Ashjaee’s remarks.
Ashjaee said that his company’s testing of its own filter methodology found no GPS signal loss due to a low-10 (10L) signal power of –10 dBm. An “Ultimate Test: Special Zero Baseline” put receivers on a Moscow skyscraper with multipath from both above and below. One antenna fed two receivers (zero baseline). One receiver used standard filtering and the other the new filters. He said that over 15 hours of testing the average carrier-phase error between the two receivers was 0.2 millimeters, and the average code difference was about 5 centimeters.
JAVAD GNSS has started production of what Ashjaee calls “LightSquared-compatible” Triumph GNSS receivers. He brought 40 units to the PNT Board meeting. The company will begin manufacturing “LightSquared-integrated” receivers in May 2012, for RTK positioning using the proposed LightSquared broadband network for high-speed communication, if and when it is deployed.
Fellow presenter Jim Kirkland, vice president and general counsel for Trimble Navigation, pointed out that such filters represented a potential solution only for one class of high-precision receivers. Whether it would work for other classes of high-precision receivers had yet to be verified. Kirkland said that even if further independent testing shows that the filter solution is viable at the lower 10 MHz of the spectrum, retrofits would be costly and time consuming.
Questions regarding cost and responsibility of retrofit, should the solution prove practical, were not discussed at length at the meeting, nor was any solution proposed.
LightSquared executive vice president Martin Harriman did not directly answer a question as to whether his company intends to develop the upper 10 MHz for which it has been given a conditional waiver.
Scott Burgett, software engineering manager for Garmin International, said, “It is almost impossible to design new products compatible with LightSquared’s proposed system without knowing its technology’s end state.” He estimated 10–15 years to properly retrofit Garmin devices, which are widely distributed in general aviation, personal navigation, car navigation, and other sectors, so that they could coexist with LightSquared.
The panel was moderated by Tom Stansell of Stansell Consulting, who concluded, “I think we learned, thanks to Javad, about a very clever solution to a particular problem for a particular range of products — the products he is most familiar with. It may or may not fit in some of the other applications.
“What we have not addressed is the elephant in the living room,” Stansell continued. “That is the cost, and time delay, and changeover process if LightSquared is allowed to go forward. Will it be the lower 10, upper 10? That has to be resolved. There are very large questions remaining to be discussed, and [they] may or may not be fully solved in a short period of time.”
Constellation Updates
Where Is Compass ICD?
The long-awaited signal interface control document (ICD) for China’s Beidou/Compass GNSS has not yet appeared, despite an announcement at the ION-GNSS conference by Chinese delegates that ICD document v1.0 will be published in 2011, “probably” in the month of October. When it does appear, it should be available for download on the Compass website, www.beidou.gov.cn (as yet without an English version), also at www.compass.gov.cn.
The delay in publishing a document may reflect a system very much in formulation, with ongoing discussions among the principal parties to its design, with different views on system architecture and possibly even final signal structure. This was one possible conclusion that could be inferred — a dynamic system in formation and growing rapidly — from varying reports given by different Chinese representatives, governent and academic, at the ION Compass session.
There was some disagreement among panelists at that time as to, for example, the final targeted number of satellites in the system: either 30, or 35.
The ICD has been rumored to be available previously to receiver manufacturers within China, creating some disgruntlement among companies outside the country. One of the ION panelists affirmed that GPS/Compass chips and receivers are being actively developed by many Chinese manufacturers and research institutes.
The next BeiDou/Compass launch, which will be for the system’s fifth inclined geosynchronous orbit satellite, is expected during the first few days of December, according to web discussions. As of press time for this magazine, there had been no official announcement on the Chinese official government BeiDou website, www.compass.gov.cn.
The site has posted Chinese and English versions of a document titled “Report on the Development of BeiDou (COMPASS) Navigation Satellite System (V1.0)” by the China Satellite Navigation Office. The pages are viewable as separate images.
Galileo Under Control
Europe’s first two in-orbit validation satellites reached their final operating slotss 23,222 kilometers above Earth, have been activated, and are now undergoing tests of their navigation payloads, reports the European Space Agency (ESA).
Marking the formal end of their Launch and Early Operations Phase, control of the satellites passed on November 3 from the French space agency (CNES) center in Toulouse to the Galileo Control Centre in Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany.
Oberfaffenhofen, operated by the German Aerospace Center (DLR), will be in charge of the satellites’ command and control for the whole of their 12-year operating lives. The navigation signals are being checked out by ESA’s ground station in Redu, Belgium, where a 20-meter antenna measures the shape of the signals to a high degree of accuracy. Once the navigation payload is fully checked out and activated, a second Galileo Control Centre in Fucino, Italy, will oversee all navigation services. All activities are performed under contract to SpaceOpal, a joint subsidiary of DLR and the Italian company Telespazio.
GLONASS as Expected
The Satellite System Mission Control Center of the Russian Ministry of Defence, with the ISS-Reshetnev Information Computation Center, established communication with the three GLONASS satellites launched November 4. The satellites are earth- and sun-oriented, and their subsystems are functioning properly.
According to NORAD tracking, the three satellites were inserted into Plane 1. This was expected as there are only seven active satellites in this plane, whereas the other two planes have a full complement of eight satellites. Orbit slot 3 in Plane 1 is currently vacant. According to Nikolay Testoyedov, ISS-Reshetnev general designer and director general, the new satellites will ensure the operation of a complete 24-satellite GLONASS constellation, and allow creating the necessary orbital reserve.
GPS GEO-MEO Floated
In a presentation titled “Analysis of Alternatives for Future GPS Architecture; Considerations for Constellation Sustainment,” made to the U.S. PNT Advisory Board on November 9, Kirk Lewis, senior advisor from the Institute for Defense Analyses (IDA), put forth the concept of “boosting” GPS III payloads onto commercial geostationary Earth-orbit (GEO) satellites.
After concluding that the current program of launches and orbit costs extending into the Block III-C generation is not sustainable, Lewis presented several alternatives, but quickly eliminated two that involved low-Earth-orbit satellites and non-space options, due to technical, scheduling, and performance issues. Remaining in play are “potential and realistic” GEO and mid-Earth orbit (MEO, the configuration of the present GPS constellation) options, used individually or in combination.
IDA analysis found that two GEO satellites, separated by 15 degrees or more longitude, supplied almost the same signal performance as adding six MEO satellites. The presentation is available at www.pnt.gov/advisory/2011/11/.
Non-aviation users of satellite- and ground-based augmentation systems do not require the conservative level of integrity built into these systems for aviation users. Removing it can produce substantial benefits in terms of smaller error bounds and improved availability.
By Sam Pullen, Todd Walter, and Per Enge
Both space-based and ground-based augmentation systems (SBAS and GBAS, respectively) are designed to enhance standalone GNSS navigation to meet the requirements of civil aviation. SBAS and GBAS corrections and integrity information are also available to the non-aviation user population, such as automobiles, buses, and trains on land as well as ships near shore. This much larger user base can benefit as much from the integrity components of SBAS and GBAS as from the increased accuracy obtained from applying SBAS and GBAS pseudorange corrections. However, there are significant differences between the aviation interpretation of navigation integrity and the interpretation that would be natural to most users.
SBAS and GBAS provide integrity in a multi-step procedure that is laid out in the RTCA Minimum Operational Performance Standards (MOPS) for the FAA versions of both systems: DO-229D for the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) and DO-253C for the Local Area Augmentation System (LAAS). These systems indicate which ranging measurements should be excluded as unsafe to use and provide bounding error standard deviations, or sigmas, for the remaining usable measurements. Each aircraft uses this information to compute vertical and horizontal protection levels that define position-domain error bounds at desired probabilities. This process is straightforward, logical, and is not limited to aviation users. However, the requirements and assumptions underlying it make it very conservative.
SBAS and GBAS are designed to meet integrity requirements defined in terms of what is known as specific risk. Briefly, this means that all safety requirements must be met for the worst combination of knowable or potentially foreseeable circumstances under which an operation may be conducted. Some variable factors important to safety, such as the user’s satellite geometry, are known by definition. Others, such as receiver thermal noise, are random and unpredictable. But several factors that are critical to GNSS performance, such as multipath and ionospheric errors, are neither completely random nor deterministic. Specific risk typically treats all error sources that are not completely random in a worst-case manner. SBAS and GBAS are designed to mitigate specific risk to support civil aviation, and the resulting conservatism makes SBAS and GBAS less attractive to non-aviation users who expect tighter protection levels relative to nominal system accuracy.
Fortunately, non-aviation users need not apply all MOPS procedures required of aviation users if their own safety requirements differ. Most users define integrity in average or ensemble terms, meaning that everything not known in practice is treated as random and is probabilistically mixed (or convolved) together. The protection levels valid for these users would be much lower than for aviation users, even though the stated bounding probability is the same. This contrast is illustrated in Figure 1, which shows example bounds on 2-D vertical errors at a probability of 0.95 (the 95th percentile, or 95 percent) for accuracy and a probability of 1–10-7 for integrity. The term VPE stands for vertical position error, while VPL stands for vertical protection level. Analogous terms (HPE and HPL) and a similar picture exist in two dimensions for horizontal errors.
Only one 95 percent error bound is shown in Figure 1 because this probability can be observed, estimated, and modeled with theory and reasonable amounts of data (hundreds or thousands of independent samples). This is not at all the case at the very small probability of 10-7 that applies to aviation precision approach: it is roughly equivalent to one event in 47.5 years per 150-second precision-approach interval. Both theory and data fall far short of being able to predict such rare-event errors. Extrapolating from available data to 1–10-7 using Gaussian distributions is perilous because the Gaussian distribution almost never applies at such small probabilities. Mixed-Gaussian models, other so-called fat-tailed distributions, and inflation of Gaussian parameters help address this, but the uncertainty regarding the true error distribution results in significantly different error bounds depending on the assumptions that are made. The same is true regarding the effects of faults and anomalies that are more probable than 10-7 but are still rare and poorly understood.
In the end, different means of assessing these uncertainties and various degrees of user risk aversion result in different 1–10-7 protection levels, as shown in Figure 1. It is this difference that we wish to quantify and exploit in this article.
Average versus Specific Risk
The concept of average or ensemble risk is intuitive to those with a background in probability and is one of the key principles of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). Thus, it helps to examine it first.
Average risk is the probability of unsafe conditions based upon the convolved (averaged) estimated probabilities of all unknown events. More specifically, probability distributions are derived (based on the best available knowledge) for all unknown parameters relevant to user safety, and these are combined (by probabilistic convolution) to create an overall distribution that represents safety risk as a function of the known parameters. This straightforward, natural interpretation of probability and uncertainty has a major advantage in that it cleanly separates the probabilistic calculation of safety risk from users’ aversion to risk. By keeping risk probability and risk aversion (or severity) separate, a final risk consequence measure can be derived that supports apples-to-apples comparisons of alternatives. One useful result of this is known as the value of information (VOI). By comparing the risk outcomes of two scenarios in which the latter case has additional information (for example, from an additional sensor or integrity monitor), the risk-reduction benefit of the added information can be traded off against the cost and complexity that it introduces to the system. Similar comparisons can be made for any definition of risk, but the definition and use of VOI in an average-risk framework makes the most sense in both theory and practice.
Turning to specific risk, no single definition exists within the aviation safety community, to our knowledge. This is partially because of the uniqueness and complexity of the concept and partially because multiple inconsistent interpretations appear to exist. Therefore, we provide our own definition: Specific risk is the probability of unsafe conditions subject to the assumption that all credible unknown events that could be known occur with a probability of one (on a risk-by-risk basis).
To understand how specific risk differs from average risk, it helps to start with a fault-tree representation of risk in which loss of integrity (LOI) can result from any of the nodes of the tree. Figure 2 shows a simplified example of a fault tree for CAT I GBAS. It shows the allocation of the CAT I total integrity risk requirement of 2 × 10-7 per approach to the various possible causes of integrity loss. In specific-risk analysis, each type of failure shown in the tree, if deemed to be a credible failure (meaning, in practice, that its assumed prior probability is larger than compared to its allocation in the fault tree), is assessed that the failure is guaranteed to occur in a worst-case fashion. This means that the variables that describe this particular failure scenario take the values that maximize the hazard to users. In an average-risk analysis, these variables would take many values according to their own probability distributions, and these distributions would be convolved together to provide an overall representation of risk under that scenario. Instead, one scenario drives the specific risk assessment for a particular user class, and it is the worst one possible from that user’s standpoint. (Another user class would be evaluated under a different set of parameters corresponding to the separate worst case for that user.) The improbability of the worst-case combination of parameters is not considered as long as the probability of the failure scenario as a whole is deemed high enough to be of concern.
Figure 2. Fault tree for CAT I GBAS integrity.
Since GNSS augmentation systems contain multiple levels of health monitoring, the worst-case scenario is usually the one that maximizes the probability of an undetected hazardous error for a particular user class. Hazardous error is typically defined as any error that exceeds a pre-defined safety zone known as an alert limit (AL) or any error that exceeds the computed protection level (PL), which allows integrity to be defined separately from the intended application. Both definitions are conservative in that all errors exceeding AL or PL are treated as equally hazardous. In other words, an error just above AL is treated as just as dangerous as an error of 10 × AL. They are also misleading when used in specific-risk analyses because the resulting worst-case conditions are those that give errors just above AL or PL, as these are the generally hardest for monitoring algorithms to detect.
The use of specific risk in aviation is an evolution of deterministic guidelines for tolerable risk that date back to an earlier era when flying was more dangerous. It remains dominant in aviation safety assessment because it is partly responsible for the development of safer and more reliable air transportation. However, it has several important weaknesses compared to average risk. The first is that the degree of risk aversion preferred for aviation is buried within the hazard probabilities generated by specific risk — it cannot be separated out. This means that specific-risk results do not translate well to other classes of users, as very few users would happen to have the same risk preferences that have evolved within aviation over several decades. In addition, specific risk makes a distinction between unknown events that could be known and those that are both rare and completely unknowable. A very risk-averse value of information is much different than the risk-neutral one built into PRA, as it severely penalizes systems that do not include all potentially-informative sensors. Since each sensor added to a system provides less benefit than the last, almost all cost-effective systems choose to include less than the maximum possible number of sensors.
The conservatism implicit in specific-risk assessment severely penalizes users. Although PRA would show that the combination of factors (shown in an example induced by extreme ionospheric spatial decorrelation) needed to produce a 40-meter error in a CAT I GBAS system is exceedingly improbable (almost certainly below 10-10 per approach), specific risk forces a significant part of the GBAS risk-mitigation effort to be targeted at this scenario. In this case, since monitoring is not guaranteed to detect the anomaly in time, the only recourse is geometry screening, a cumbersome technique in which the ground system continually evaluates the worst-case error and, if it exceeds a 28-meter tolerable limit at the CAT I decision height, determines which broadcast parameters to inflate such that all satellite geometries causing worst-case errors exceeding 28 meters are made unavailable (because the inflated VPL is larger than the 10-meter CAT I VAL). The result of this procedure is much lower user availability than would be achieved without inflation. SBAS pays a similar penalty, as we will see later. The broadcast grid ionospheric vertical error values that bound worst-case ionospheric errors (and thus the resulting protection levels) are much higher than they would be if the unusual combination of factors needed to create the worst-case error scenario were not the dominant concern.
To the extent that loss of availability represents a safety issue at the airspace level, the worst-case focus that results from specific risk is not optimal even from a safety standpoint. But this is not the only concern. Specific risk requires a great deal of development and testing to identify and mitigate a handful of very peculiar, non-representative conditions. When schedule and resources are limited, other potential threats that are easier to foresee but seem extremely improbable are often neglected. One example is the treatment of multiple hardware failures. If individual failures are assumed to be statistically independent, the probability of multiple simultaneous failures is very small. However, while statistical independence is a common assumption in probability classes because it makes calculations easier, it rarely applies in the real world. Because satellites and ground receivers are similar, if not identical, the presence of a failure in one unit may suggest a common cause or at least a common vulnerability, meaning that the probability of additional failures is much higher than independence would suggest. Thus, assuming independence by default could lead to neglecting entire categories of risk that are more threatening than the worst-case events that dominate specific risk.
Maximum WAAS Errors, Protection
To investigate the conservatism built into SBAS and GBAS specific risk assessment, maximum WAAS horizontal and vertical position errors over time (as measured by the Performance Analysis Network (PAN) maintained by the William J. Hughes FAA Technical Center) have been examined and compared to the protection levels computed when the maximum errors occurred. This study begins with PAN Report #8 (covering January to March 2004 — shortly after WAAS commissioning in mid-2003) and extends through PAN Report #34 (covering July to September 2010). Each PAN report covers three months of observed WAAS performance.
Figure 3 shows the 38 WAAS reference stations (WRSs) used by the PAN to collect position error and protection level information (some of these stations were not active in 2004 and thus were not used in earlier PAN reports). While measurements from these stations are used to generate WAAS corrections and error bounds, they are also used by the PAN as static pseudo-users that compute WAAS-corrected positions and protection levels according to the aircraft user algorithms specified in the WAAS MOPS. The resulting positions are compared to the known, pre-surveyed positions of each station to derive estimates of vertical and horizontal position errors (VPE and HPE) once per second.
Figure 3. WAAS PAN reference station network.
Figure 3 groups these stations into three sets of stations based on their presumed quality of WAAS coverage. These sets are unofficial and were created for the purposes of this study. The seven stations in the inner set are expected to have good WAAS coverage at all times because they are surrounded by other stations. The 13 stations in the outer set are expected to only have acceptable coverage because s
ome of them are at the edges of CONUS. The remote stations provide coverage to the inner and outer regions as well as the best possible coverage of their own regions. Because the remote stations extend beyond the primary coverage region of WAAS in CONUS, errors at these stations are not considered here.
Figure 4 is a 2-D plot of position error versus protection level in the vertical axis (that is, VPE versus VPL) for all epochs and stations during the three months covered by the recent WAAS PAN Report #34 (July 1–September 30, 2010). These results are typical of the entire period since WAAS commissioning in 2003, particularly the last several years. The vertical lines on the plot indicate the 95th-percentile, 99th percentile, and maximum VPEs in this period (1.2, 1.8, and 7 meters, respectively). The maximum VPE occurred at Barrow, AK, which is one of the most remote stations in the WAAS network (see Figure 3). In comparison, the lowest VPLs (intended to be 1–10-7 bounds on VPE) are in the range of 10–15 meters, and values as high as 40 meters are not uncommon. The most demanding approach operation that WAAS supports, LPV-200, allows approaches to a 200-foot minimum decision height and requires that VPL be below a vertical alert limit (VAL) of 35 meters. HPL must also be below a horizontal alert limit (HAL) of 45 meters. When this is not the case, the approach operation is not available; thus these higher VPLs extract a significant cost.
Figure 4. WAAS vertical protection level versus vertical position error (June–September 2010).
Figure 5 and Figure 6 (for vertical and horizontal errors, respectively) span the entire period of WAAS PAN Reports used in this study. VPL represents the VPL at the station and time of the maximum VPE; it is not the largest VPL recorded at a particular station. The horizontal errors shown in Figure 6 are defined analogously. Note that the station that observes the largest horizontal error in a given PAN report may differ from the one that observes the largest vertical error.
Figures 5 and 6 demonstrate that, while both 95 percent and maximum errors are quite low and are within the expected range of each other, the protection levels associated with the maximum errors greatly exceed them. This pattern is clearer in Figure 5 for vertical errors because maximum VPL tends to be more consistent across PAN reports, but it is true for horizontal errors as well.
Figure 5. WAAS vertical errors and protection levels from 2004–2010.Figure 6. WAAS horizontal errors and protection levels from 2004–2010.
Figures 7 and 8 clarify this relationship by plotting the ratio of VPL to VPE and HPL to HPE for the station and time of the maximum error. The mean of this ratio is very high and is about the same in both cases: 5.38 for vertical and 5.21 for horizontal. Figure 7 shows a steady upward trend in the ratio that is mostly due to WRS improvements that resulted in maximum VPE being reduced over time. This trend is clearly visible in Figure 5 and appears to exceed the weaker trend of lowering VPL due to WAAS algorithm enhancements. The same trend is visible in the horizontal Figures 6 and 8 but is weaker due to the greater variability of maximum HPL over time.
To evaluate the significance of the large PL-to-max-PE ratios in the WAAS PAN database, we need to approximate the number of independent samples from which the maximum errors were derived. As noted before, WAAS protection levels represent error bounds at the 1–10-7 probability level based on specific risk. With one measurement being collected at each operational station every second, a total of about 4.25 billion samples were collected in the PAN reports from January 2004 to September 2010. Note that measurements from remote stations are included in this count, but they are also represented in the conclusions because their PL-to-max-PE ratios are very similar to the ones shown in Figures 7 and 8. Translating this number into the number of statistically independent samples depends on the interval between independent measurements. Because both nominal and rare-event errors affect this interval, it is hard to estimate. Our best guess is a range between roughly 30 and 150 seconds, suggesting that the PAN database contains between 2.8 × 107 and 1.4 × 108 independent samples. Both of these numbers suggest that WAAS protection levels are very conservative from the perspective of average risk.
Figure 7. Ratio of VPL to VPE from 2004–2010.Figure 8. Ratio of HPL to HPE from 2004–2010.
Adjusting for Average-Risk Users
Using the above results, a preliminary estimate of the reduced WAAS protection levels that would apply to average-risk users can be made. Figure 9 shows a comparison between the actual 95 percent WAAS VPL and HPL and the adjusted VPL and HPL potentially achievable with WAAS (for the same 1–10-7 bounding probability) for average-risk users. The actual WAAS VPLs are taken from the more recent WAAS PAN Reports starting from #24 (covering January to March 2008) as the period from 2008 to 2010 includes most of the WAAS algorithm improvements introduced since commissioning in 2003. The actual 95 percent VPLs and HPLs represent the largest reported 95th-percentile values among the stations within CONUS for each quarterly period. The lower adjusted VPLs and HPLs are derived by dividing each VPL by a factor of 4.0 and each HPL by a factor of 2.5. These two reduction factors are derived from Figures 7 and 8, respectively, as conservative estimates of the ratio between protection levels and maximum position errors. Note that the factor of 2.5 for horizontal errors does not include the 12-meter error in Cleveland from PAN Report #13, as this is thought to be spurious (that is, not representative of actual WAAS behavior).
Figure 9. Projected WAAS protection level reductions for average-risk users.
While projections based on these reduction factors are imprecise, they demonstrate the much lower error bounds that non-aviation users with an average-risk safety perspective could achieve. Most non-aviation users operate on land or sea and will be primarily concerned with horizontal error bounds. Figure 9 suggests that the typical 95th percentile WAAS HPLs of 15–20 meters (for the worst location in CONUS) can be reduced to 6–8 meters and still provide a confident 1–10-7 error bound.
It is important to emphasize that these preliminary projections for average-risk users are just that. In order to formally establish new integrity requirements and protection levels for existing systems, the hazardously misleading information (HMI) analyses previously done for these systems need to be redone using the principles of PRA and average risk. While the original development of the WAAS and LAAS HMI analyses was lengthy and resource-intensive, almost all of the detailed work is already complete. As long as the original analyses are available, it is a much smaller task to take these results and create PRAs out of them by extracting the original specific-risk assumptions and applying average-risk principles instead.
LAAS Users. Since the first GBAS ground station design (the Honeywell SLS-4000 LAAS Ground Facility) was certified for CAT I use in 2009 and has not yet been approved for operations at a specific airport, much less data is available to do a preliminary analysis for GBAS similar to the one done for WAAS above. However, the degree of sigma inflation in the parameters broadcast by CAT I LAAS is approximately known, meaning that it can be more-precisely removed from the current LAAS protection levels to estimate what they would be for average-risk users.
Figure 10 shows the degree of inflation applied to the broadcast σvertical_iono_gradient (or σvig) parameter in order to protect against the worst-case ionospheric anomaly described previously. This result is for the SPS-standard 24-satellite constellation over a 24-hour period at the LAAS installation at Newark Airport, New Jersey (the method used by the Honeywell SLS-4000 is somewhat different). While not all epochs require inflation, a majority cause the nominal σvig value to be increased by a factor of 2 or more, which significantly decreases CAT I availability and currently makes it impossible to take advantage of the Differentially Corrected Positioning Service (DCPS) for non-CAT-I operations.
Figure 10. Typical σvig inflation factors for CAT I LAAS.
Because of the extreme rarity of the worst-case event that dictates this inflation, it would likely not be needed for average-risk users. Figure 11 shows how much the σvig inflation in Figure 10 increases the LAAS VPL at Newark for the standard 24-satellite constellation. The VPL reduction from removing the inflation is not as dramatic as the potential reductions shown for WAAS in Figure 9, but they are significant relative to the 10-meter VAL for LAAS CAT I approaches. Furthermore, the pre-inflated nominal value of σvig for LAAS is 6.4 millimeters/kilometer, which is much higher than the actual one-sigma nominal gradient value of 1–2 mm/km because, under specific risk, the very worst nominal data must be bounded (also, worst-case tropospheric gradients must also be bounded by σvig). Other broadcast parameters that affect VPL, such as σpr_gnd and the ephemeris P-value that bounds worst-case ephemeris failures, would also be reduced significantly by switching to average risk. Overall, it is likely that LAAS protection levels based on average risk would be reduced from the current specific-risk PLs by about the same range of factors (2–5) observed from WAAS data.
Figure 11. Impact of σvig inflation on LAAS VPL.
User Performance Improvements
This discussion assumes that most non-aviation users who are not encumbered by the history of aviation standards development will prefer to quantify risk using PRA and the average-risk approach. As noted earlier, average risk better matches most users’ intuitive understanding of uncertainty and has the enormous advantage of separating risk quantification from risk aversion. Regardless of how risk-averse or conservative a given operator is, his or her model of risk aversion can be applied most efficiently to a risk-neutral calculation of risk that fairly represents all aspects of uncertainty. Inserting risk aversion into the calculation of risk, as done in the specific-risk approach, is both inefficient and non-optimal from a safety perspective because extensive focus on a few extreme worst-case events drives attention away from other events.
The HPL reductions for average-risk users illustrated here would be significant for many classes of ground and marine transportation users. They would allow operations with tighter physical safety margins to be supported. Users who gain no particular benefit from tighter protection levels would still obtain much higher availability of integrity, as a 25-meter HPL could be supported by much poorer satellite geometries than would otherwise be the case. In other words, users that can tolerate 25-meter horizontal error bounds would be able to operate safely a much higher percentage of the time, because the degree of GNSS constellation deterioration needed to exceed this limit would occur much less often. These benefits do not only apply at the 1–10-7 probability level, as they would scale to the higher probabilities (1–10-4 to 1–10-6) that many non-aviation applications would be most concerned with.
While very few non-aviation users of GNSS today have real-time safety requirements similar to those of civil aviation, the number of such users will likely increase as the coverage of augmented GNSS (and the availability of integrity from standalone receiver-autonomous integrity monitoring, or RAIM) expands. The evolution of standalone civil GPS usage provides a precedent: as basic GPS accuracy improved from tens of meters to several meters, and the cost of user equipment dropped, more and more uses were discovered. A similar, although smaller-scale, trend is likely to occur as the advantages of augmented GNSS become more available and better understood. The primary beneficiaries are likely to be intelligent road-transport systems, train services, and marine transportation in restricted waters.
One application where tight real-time integrity bounds would be useful is in harbor and marina entry and exit; see Figure 12, taken from a Google map of a marina in San Diego, California. Based on the earlier analysis, two typical 1−10-7 horizontal protection levels are shown: 18 meters using the unchanged WAAS MOPS approach, and 7 meters based upon modifying the broadcast bounding parameters to represent average risk (these HPLs are bounds on error in either direction, positive or negative; thus the 2-D error bounding circle has a diameter of twice the HPL).
Figure 12. Example of reduced protection levels for harbor/marina access.
When the resulting error bounds are compared, the relative advantage of the smaller bound for this application is immediately apparent. In general, when HPL is significant compared to potential obstacles, its significance varies with the square of HPL rather than HPL itself, as the area being protected matters more than either linear direction. In this example, the ratio of HPLs being compared is 18/7, or 2.57, but the ratio of HPL-squared is much larger: 182/72 = 6.61.
When real-time integrity is not needed, augmented GNSS provides an easy means to guarantee or certify vehicle locations after the fact with great precision and reliability, without the need for post-processing. Vehicle and cargo tracking based on standalone GPS is common today, a certification of the correctness of the tracking data to probabilities suitable for legal or commercial guarantees is lacking. For this, error bounds at 1–10-4 to 1– 10-6 probabilities are likely sufficient, and would allow HPLs of below 5 meters from WAAS and below 3 meters from LAAS. In some scenarios, the difference between a 5-meter and a 15-meter guarantee would be minor, but in others, it could make a substantial difference.
As noted earlier, even for uses where the required HPL (as represented by the safe error limit, or HAL, for a particular application) is satisfied by the existing WAAS and LAAS protection levels, the use of modified average-risk protection levels increases the availability of integrity, which is most often expressed as the probability or percentage of time (over all satellite geometries and othe
r variable system states) that the integrity requirement is met throughout an operation (in simple terms, that HPL ≤ HAL). For user locations within good WAAS or LAAS coverage, the most variable element over time is satellite geometry. Decreasing HPL by a factor of 2.5 or more substantially increases the margin between HPL and HAL and makes it far less likely that the satellite geometry will degrade to the point where HPL exceeds HAL. For example, if the unmodified WAAS HPL equals HAL at an (un-weighted) HDOP of about 1.5, the resulting satellite availability (an upper bound on overall availability) for the SPS-standard 24-satellite GPS constellation would be roughly 98.5 percent. This means that the satellites in view (in this case, all satellites above 5 degrees elevation at a location in CONUS) would provide HDOP ≤ 1.5 about 98.5 percent of the time. However, the modified average-risk HPL (using the factor-of-2.5 reduction) would roughly translate into a limiting HDOP of about 3.75. This allows the required integrity bound to be satisfied by much poorer GPS geometries and gives a satellite availability of greater than 99.9 percent. Thus, when integrity is needed, this much greater availability of integrity is a major advantage.
Summary
SBAS and GBAS broadcasts are freely available to all GNSS users, most of whom will have different definitions of acceptable risk. These users are not optimally served at present and may hesitate to take advantage of SBAS and GBAS as a result.
Using years of collected data for the FAA WAAS system and analysis of the inflation factors built into the CAT I version of the FAA LAAS system, it appears that average-risk users of WAAS and LAAS would be adequately supported by protection levels that are 2 to 5 times lower than those currently derived by aviation users. The fact that two different approaches used to examine WAAS and LAAS suggest similar levels of over-conservatism lends credence to these estimates. While further validation by full-scale probabilistic risk assessments is necessary, we conclude that non-aviation users willing to accept average risk would obtain much better performance and availability from simple modifications to the existing SBAS and GBAS protection level calculations specified for aviation users.
Acknowledgments
We thank the FAA Satellite Navigation Program Office for its support of our research on WAAS and LAAS. However, the opinions expressed here are solely our own. We thank Jim Kelly and Tim Murphy for their explanations of the evolution of today’s SBAS and GBAS integrity requirements. We also thank the FAA Technical Center for its efforts in collecting and publishing WAAS error data over the last decade using its Performance Analysis Network (PAN).
Sam Pullen is a senior research engineer at Stanford University, where he is the director of the Local Area Augmentation System (LAAS) research effort. He has supported the FAA and others in developing GNSS system concepts, requirements, integrity algorithms, and performance models since obtaining his Ph.D. from Stanford in Aeronautics and Astronautics.
Todd Walter is a senior research engineer in the Department of Aeronautics and Astronautics at Stanford University. He received his Ph.D. from Stanford and is currently working on the Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS), defining future architectures to provide aircraft guidance, and on assuring integrity on GPS III.
Per Enge is a professor of aeronautics and astronautics at Stanford University, where he is the Kleiner Perkins, Mayfield, Sequoia Capital Professor in the School of Engineering. He directs the GPS Research Laboratory and received his Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.
As this issue goes to press in late August, the first Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency Quasi-Zenith Satellite System (QZSS) space
vehicle, nicknamed Michibiki, holds steady for a September 11 launch.
QZSS will use multiple satellites in inclined orbits, placed so that one satellite always appears near zenith above Japan, well known for its high-rise cities. The design provides high-accuracy satellite positioning service covering almost all of the country, including urban canyons and mountainous terrain.
QZSS Phase One will validate technological enhancement of GPS availability, performance, and application. Phase Two will demonstrate full system capability using three QZSS satellites, including Michibiki.
The satellites will generate and transmit their own signals, compatible with modernized GPS signals. QZSS also transmits GPS corrections and availability data.
Michibiki Profile. Dual-box shape with wing-type solar-array paddles; overall dimensions, 2.9 x 3.1 x 6.2 meters, paddles extending 25.3 meters; weight approximately 4,000 kilograms; altitude approximately 32,000–40,000 kilometers; inclination approximately 40 degrees;
period, 23 hours 56 minutes.
Compass. In early August, the first Beidou/Compass inclined geosynchronous orbit (IGSO) satellite achieved near-geosynchronous orbit. The mean east longitude of the sub-satellite ground point is currently 117 degrees, 19 minutes (see figure 1). This is one of the first, if not the first, satellite to use such a highly inclined circular geosynchronous orbit.
Figure 1. Left, the orbit path of three QZSS satellites will eventually keep at least one of them directly over Japan at all times. Right, the inclined geosynchronous orbit of the fifth Compass satellite, launched in July, has a similar ground track and mission goal.
Multi-GNSS Campaign. An international collaboration is poised to take advantage of a coming proliferation of satellites, led by Compass and QZSS but also including GPS, GLONASS, and Galileo, over the Asia/Pacific region. The website www.multignss.asia/campaign.html states, “The Asia and Oceania region is a unique place where the number of usable modernized navigation satellites will increase much faster than other areas in the world. We will see great improvement of PNT capability and hence there is a great opportunity to try, test, and validate new receiver hardware, algorithms, and applications in order to address user requirements.”
The web page also carries an animation of the availability of more than 100 GNSS space vehicles that will operate over the region in the next decade. An initial campaign workshop in Bangkok, Thailand, in January drew 195 participants from 18 countries. A second workshop is scheduled for November 21–22 in Melbourne, Australia.
GLONASS September. Three GLONASS-M satellites to be launched on September 2 completed pre-launch testing and mating to the upper stage of the booster rocket at Baikonur Cosmodrome. Numbered 36, 37, and 38, the satellites will constitute the Block 42 triad.
GPS III Design: Done. The Lockheed Martin team developing GPS III has successfully completed the program’s Critical Design Review (CDR) phase, two months ahead of baseline schedule. CDR completion validates the detailed GPS III design to ensure it meets warfighter and civil requirements. It culminates many rigorous assembly, subsystem, element, space vehicle and system-level CDR events, validates the overall design maturity of the GPS III space vehicle, and allows Lockheed Martin to enter production phase. Col. Bernard J. Gruber, U.S. Air Force GPS Wing Commander, certified the completion. Lockheed Martin, ITT, and General Dynamics are working under a $3 billion development and production contract for up to 12 GPS IIIA satellites. The team is on track to launch the first GPS IIIA satellite in 2014.
GPS Interface Specs. New IS-GPS-200E, IS-GPS-705A, and IS-GPS-800A documents have been posted to www.gps.gov/technical.
SVN62 Rubidium Clock. The U.S. Naval Research Laboratory issued a preliminary report on the rubidium atomic clock currently in use on the SVN62 Block IIF satellite. While documenting excellent short-term performance, the report notes anomalous fluctuations in the clock signal with distinct 12-hour and 6-hour periodicities. The exact cause has not been identified although it is speculated that the fluctuations are of thermal origin like SVN-62’s L5 phase variance detected earlier. But note that the clock signal analysis relies only on L1 and L2 measurements.
GPS IIF Got Active. The 50th Space Wing’s 2nd Space Operations Squadron formally took over command and control of the first Block IIF satellite on August 26 from the GPS Wing, and the satellite was set healthy on August 27, making 31 healthy GPS satellites on orbit.
Advisory Board Update
GPS World Editorial Advisory Board member Art Gower has been elected a Lockheed Martin Fellow, an honor recognizing pre-eminent technical individual contributors in the company, delivering mission success and vision by undertaking the most difficult technical challenges facing the company and its customers. Art started his career with IBM Federal Systems Division (now part of Lockheed Martin Integrated Systems and Global Solutions) in 1983, developing displays and performing navigation upload and command and control system engineering for the GPS control segment, and becoming chief engineer for the GPS control segment in 1990. He has spent the majority of his career working on GPS, GNSS, and SBAS systems.
The European Commission (EC) has published an updated Galileo Open Service Signal-In-Space Interface Control Document (OS SIS ICD) giving technical specifications and performance expectations for the future system.
As reported by GPS World in October 2009, the EC will not charge for manufacturing licenses. No fees will be required for manufacturers to design, develop, make, or sell receivers capable of using the Galileo Open Service signal. Manufacturers are required to apply for the free licenses, which “will be provided on a non-discriminatory basis in accordance with European Union rules and international commitments.”
To obtain a license, interested parties must e-mail to [email protected], “mentioning their request for a license agreement, which is without any exclusivity or geographical limitation.”
In a section addressing intellectual property rights (IPR), previously the stumbling block towards free-market manufacture and sale of Galileo receivers, the release states that “The information contained in the OS SIS ICD . . . is subject to IPR. The use of [this] information . . . including the spreading codes which are subject to IPR, is hereby allowed for research and development and/or standardisation purposes . . . “ and, in a later section regarding commercial use, “. . . is hereby allowed for manufacturing, distribution, commercialisation, sale of electronic devices (e.g. chipsets and receivers) and supply of Value Added Services.”
Galileo Frequency Plan.
SBAS Woes
In mid-April, Intelsat announced it had lost control of its Galaxy 15 satellite that hosts the WAAS SBAS transponder used by the U.S. Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Shortly thereafter, the FAA announced that the satellite, one of two used by WAAS, would drift out of usable orbit within two to four weeks.
Once G-15 is out of usable orbit, WAAS will be disrupted for users in northwest Alaska. The rest of the WAAS service area — U.S., Canada, Mexico — will operate normally but will be reduced to a single point of failure with one WAAS broadcasting satellite remaining (PRN 138).
The FAA is investigating at least two alternatives:
Utilize Inmarsat 3 (POR) that was previously used by WAAS before switching to Galaxy 15 in 2006. POR is located at 178°E.
Accelerate the testing of Inmarsat 4-F3 (PRN 133). Testing is already in progress and due to be complete in December 2010. The FAA stated that there is “potential to implement as an emergency release.”
Neither solution is an immediate one. The FAA stated that integrating POR back into operational WAAS would take 12–16 months. The quickest solution is to accelerate the implementation of PRN 133; the FAA said it might be able to shave 1–2 months from original target date.
The FAA stated that with only a single WAAS GEO broadcasting satellite, users may experience a temporary loss of service 3-5 times this year for up to five minutes each while WAAS Uplink Station Switchovers occur.
GAGAN Tumbles. A rocket carrying a satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS) satellite crashed into the Bay of Bengal, deaing a significant blow to India’s GPS-Aided Geo Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) program. The rocket was to deliver the two-ton GSAT-4, which hosted, among other things, an L-band transponder that was to broadcast GPS navigation corrections used by civil aviation and other transportation modes. GAGAN, a program that is years into development, is similar to and compatible with the U.S. WAAS, Europe’s EGNOS, and Japan’s MSAS, designed for next-generation international aviation navigation.
The initiative was using an Indian-designed and -built cryogenic engine on a rocket for the first time. The Hindu News website reported that “India began developing the cryogenic engine as its answer to technology denial regime as the U.S. not only refused the technology but also put pressure on Russia to backtrack on its commitment to New Delhi.”
After reviewing current performance of WAAS, EGNOS, and MSAS, the authors present expected future performance, including the benefits of GPS L5. They evaluate the impact of the Indian GAGAN and Russian SDCM systems on global coverage and examine southward expansions for the original three SBASs. Finally, a look at the impact of a second constellation of navigation satellites and the performance for a user taking advantage of two core constellations.
By Todd Walter, Juan Blanch, and Per Enge, Stanford University
The Wide Area Augmentation System (WAAS) monitors GPS and provides both differential corrections to improve accuracy and associated confidence bounds to assure integrity. The first satellite-based augmentation system (SBAS), it was commissioned for service in 2003. Japan’s MTSAT-based Satellite Augmentation System (MSAS) was commissioned in 2007, and the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) was declared operational in 2009, with safety-of-life service commissioning expected in mid-2010. Two other SBASs are in the developmental stage: India’s GPS Aided Geo Augmented Navigation (GAGAN) and Russia’s System for Differential Corrections and Monitoring (SDCM) have fielded equipment and plan to become operational in the next few years.
Coming improvements will expand SBAS coverage areas and strengthen their performance. In the near term, these include more monitoring stations and algorithmic enhancements, with incorporation of a second civil signal in a protected aeronautical band and new GNSS constellations in the long term.
An SBAS utilizes a network of precisely surveyed reference receivers, located throughout its coverage region. The information gathered from these reference stations monitors the GNSS satellites and their propagation environment in real time. Availability of SBAS service is a function of two quantities: the arrangement of the pseudorange measurements used to determine the user’s position, referred to as geometry; and the quality of each individual measurement, referred to as the confidence bound. Although very small confidence bounds can make up for poor geometries, and strong geometries can overcome large confidence bounds, both values are generally required to be good to obtain high availability.
Geometry is determined purely by the locations of the ranging satellites relative to the user. Currently the basic geometry is provided by the GPS constellation. Historically it has exceeded commitments, and there are currently 29 healthy satellites in orbit when only 21 are nominally guaranteed. However, as satellites are taken off-line in critical orbital slots, the quality of the geometry can degrade significantly. There could be short duration losses of service daily at some locations. Since the goal is to provide service more than 99.9 percent of the time, these outages can have a dramatic impact. WAAS currently mitigates this concern by adding geostationary satellites with a ranging function virtually identical to the GPS satellites. These satellites are always in view and improve the overall geometry, although they do not eliminate the problem completely.
The confidence bounds relate to the expected error sources on the range measurements. Currently three error sources are corrected via broadcast to the user: satellite clock error, satellite ephemeris error, and delay error due to propagation through the ionosphere. These error sources are described by two confidence bound terms: the user differential range error (UDRE) for the satellite errors, and the grid ionospheric vertical error (GIVE) for the ionospheric errors.
For single-frequency SBAS, this last error source is the most significant. Users may sample the ionosphere anywhere in the service volume, but the SBAS only has measurements from its reference station locations. Thus, there is always the possibility of undetected ionospheric disturbances. This leads to larger confidence bounding terms and lower availability.
The combination of geometry and confidence bounds yields the protection levels (PL). PLs are the real-time confidence bound on the user’s position error. To match aviation requirements these are broken into a vertical protection level (VPL) and a horizontal protection level (HPL). Each SBAS guarantees that the user’s actual position error will be smaller than these values 99.99999 percent of the time. The PLs are calculated in real-time using stored and broadcast information. They must be compared to the maximum allowed value for a desired operation. The upper bounds are called alert limits (AL) and they are fixed numbers whose values depend on the operation.
In this article we are interested in the localizer performance with vertical guidance (LPV)-200 approach with a VAL of 35 meters and HAL of 40 meters. Currently, LPV aviation approaches can only be accomplished with a WAAS GPS receiver. Performance of an LPV approach allows minimums as low as 200 feet above ground level before a missed approach must be executed. As of January 2010, there were 1,930 published WAAS LPVs, with plans to add 300 per year in the United States.
Because GPS and SBAS generally perform better at horizontal positioning than vertical, the requirement that the VPL be below the VAL is nearly always the limiting constraint for these operations.
Methodology
To determine the global availability and the effect of potential improvements, we used our Matlab Algorithm Availability Simulation Tool (MAAST). This tool uses almanac data to calculate the position of the satellites for each specified epoch. The almanac chosen for this study corresponds to the GPS almanac broadcast on April 8, 2009, when there were 30 healthy satellites. However, PRNs 25 and 32 were removed to simulate a condition with 28 healthy satellites. MAAST also implements the WAAS integrity algorithms to calculate the corresponding UDRE and GIVE values. Finally, it uses these values to implement the airborne algorithms specified in the minimum operational performance standards (MOPS) for SBAS. The MOPS specifies user algorithms for determining the protection levels. For these simulations, the VPL and HPL are calculated about every 5 minutes and every two and a half degrees across the globe.
MAAST does a good job of predicting WAAS behavior. It is less accurate when predicting other systems’ performance. EGNOS has developed its own monitoring receivers and integrity algorithms and has different criteria for assigning a satellite a particular UDRE value and assigning each ionospheric grid point’s (IGP’s) GIVE value. Nevertheless, both systems are designed to meet ICAO requirements for integrity, and their performance should be somewhat similar. In observing EGNOS coverage plots and comparing them to MAAST predictions, we do see differences. However, the size of the coverage region and approximate boundaries are reasonably close and provide an idea of performance if not an exact map.
The MSAS algorithms are based upon the same algorithms used in earlier versions of WAAS. Therefore, MAAST should be slightly more accurate in modeling its performance. GAGAN uses the same prime contractor as WAAS and therefore similar algorithms may be expected. Less is known about the intended SDCM algorithms and therefore the modeling of this system faces the largest uncertainty. Again, the MAAST predictions should be viewed as indicative rather than precise. Individual availability maps will not be completely correct, but relative performance improvements should be properly indicated.
Current Systems Status
Currently WAAS is in its full LPV-200 performance (FLP) phase. It consists of 20 WAAS reference stations (WRS) in the conterminous United States (CONUS), in addition to seven in Alaska, one in Hawaii, one in Puerto Rico, four in Canada, and five in Mexico for a total of 38. The station locations are shown as blue circles in Figure 1. There are three WAAS master stations (WMS) and two geostationary satellites (GEOs). The GEOs are the Intelsat Galaxy XV satellite
at 1338 W and the Telesat ANIK F1R satellite at 1078 W.
FIGURE 1. Existing SBAS reference networks, consisting of 38 reference stations for WAAS, 34 for EGNOS, and 8 for MSAS.FIGURE 2. Simulation results from MAAST for availability of LPV-200 provided by current systems.
As can be seen in Figure 2, availability of LPV-200 service is very high for most of North America. In general, this performance meets the goals for the system. However, in some regions performance is lower than the 99 percent minimum target. The West Coast, Alaska, and Southern Mexico all suffer from reduced availability.
MSAS is in its initial operating phase. It consists of six ground monitoring stations (GMSs) on the Japanese Islands, one in Australia, and one in Hawaii (magenta triangles in Figure 1). There are two master control stations (MCSs) and two Multifunction Transport Satellite (MTSAT) geostationary satellites at 1408 E and 1458 E.
Because of the limited network size, the GEO UDREs for MSAS are set to 50 meters and therefore do not benefit vertical guidance. Further, the limited ionospheric observations offer little availability of LPV-200 service as can be seen in Figure 2. As a result, vertically guided operations have not yet been authorized based upon MSAS. The Japanese Civil Aviation Bureau (JCAB) has studied performance improvements that could allow it to provide LPV-200 operations. Until then, MSAS provides only lateral navigation.
EGNOS is also in its initial operations phase. It consists of 28 ranging and integrity monitoring stations (RIMS) in Europe, one in Turkey, three in Africa, one in North America, and one in South America (green squares in Figure 1). There are four master control centers (MCCs) and two GEOs, the INMARSAT Atlantic Ocean Region-East (AOR-E) satellite at 15.58 W and the ARTEMIS satellite at 21.58 E.
For a variety of reasons, EGNOS has chosen to implement its GEO satellites without a ranging capability. Thus, for our simulations we have set them as data-links only and do not model a ranging capability. EGNOS also currently implements Message Type 27 (MT-27) rather than Message Type 28 (MT-28) as do WAAS and MSAS. MT-27 restricts the use of low UDRE values to a box centered on the European region. Its borders can be discerned in Figure 2. Currently it has little impact on LPV-200 service, but if EGNOS is to expand its coverage, it may become a limiting factor. Availability of LPV-200 service is very high for most of Europe. However, there is a desire to expand coverage to more reliably cover Iceland, Scandinavia, Eastern Europe, and the Mediterranean and South Atlantic regions.
Near-Term Improvements
EGNOS is fielding additional reference stations in the Canary Islands, Northern Africa, and the Middle East. In the longer term, MT-28 is being considered as a replacement for MT-27. In our modeling we added seven new RIMS, shown in Figure 3, and implemented MT-28. We also improved the ionospheric mask by including additional IGPs. We did not update GEO locations nor did we model ranging capability that could further enhance performance. By comparing
FIGURE 3. Improved SBAS networks. The newly added reference stations are marked by yellow filled squares for EGNOS and yellow filled triangles for MSAS.
Figure 4 to Figure 2 improvements can be seen, in particular expanded LPV-200 operation to the south.
FIGURE 4. Improved single frequency SBAS coverage for the original three SBAS.
The future of MSAS improvements is less certain, with no firm commitments for major service enhancements. We have chosen to model fairly aggressive enhancements based upon studies made by the Electronic Navigation Research Institute in Japan. We have added 10 new reference stations in Japan and made the ionospheric threat model less conservative, in line with current WAAS algorithms. Together, these improvements offer good vertical guidance coverage over Japan.
These improvements extend coverage in the vicinity of the reference station networks, but are unable to push availability much beyond. This is primarily due to the limitations of the ionospheric corrections. Because strong gradients can exist outside of the viewing area of the network, tight confidences cannot be provided to those regions.
SBASs model the ionosphere as a thin 2-dimensional shell 350 kilometers above Earth. This works well for quiet mid-latitude and polar ionosphere. However, equatorial ionosphere often has significant vertical structure that is not well replicated by the SBAS message. The resulting confidence bounds are then too large to reliably provide LPV-200 capability. No certified algorithm capable of bounding the equatorial ionosphere is known to the authors. Instead, it is recommended that SBASs in equatorial areas wait for the forthcoming L5 signal to provide vertical guidance in their regions.
GPS L5
The next GPS satellite to be launched will contain a new civil signal, L5, centered at 1176.45 MHz and in a protected aviation band. As such, it will be approved for use on aircraft. When the L5 signal is used in combination with L1, the ionospheric delay for each line-of-sight can be directly estimated. This will dramatically lower the uncertainty of the pseudorange measurement. Thus, if the SBAS is upgraded to provide corrections appropriate for an L1/L5 user and the user similarly upgrades his or her avionics, SBAS service can be dramatically improved.
Another important advantage of the second civil frequency is its relative immunity to ionospheric storms. Because the users are now directly eliminating the amount of delay they actually experience, they are no longer affected by shortcomings in the MOPS ionospheric model. The weaker effect of scintillation may have some impact; however, we do not expect to lose vertical guidance altogether. Furthermore, the availability of two civil frequencies offers protection against unintentional interference. If either L1 or L5 is jammed, the user still has access to guidance on the available frequency.
At the moment there is no MOPS for an L1/L5 user, so any ground or user algorithms will have to be speculative. We propose basing future L1/L5 algorithms on the existing L1-only algorithms. Instead of using L1-only pseudorange measurements, the user forms the ionosphere-free combination. For the confidence term representing the total pseudorange error on a line-of-sight, the ionospheric correction terms and airborne multipath terms are replaced with a single value representing airborne noise and multipath for the ionosphere-free combination.
For a single frequency user, each line-of-sight has four confidence terms that are summed together to obtain the total confidence. These terms correspond to: the satellite clock and ephemeris corrections (σflt), the ionospheric correction (σUIRE), the airborne code noise and multipath (σair), and the troposphere (σtrop). The total one-sigma confidence bound for a particular line-of-sight is the root sum square (RSS) of these four terms:
(1)
When a user has access to two civil frequencies, they can remove the ionospheric effects by forming the iono-free combination of the two pseudoranges:
(2)
where f1 and f5 are the L1 and L5 frequencies (1575.42 MHz and 1176.45 MHz) respectively. If σ1 and σ5 are comparable then the iono-free combination has roughly three times as much noise as either single frequency term, but is substantially smaller than σUIRE . Furthermore, satellites do not need a grid correction to be used, thus satellites farther from the network and IGP mask can be incorporated into the position solution. The dual-frequency confidence bound for a single satellite is then given by
(3)
where σair is used in place of σ1 and σ5 in (2).
For the VPL we propose adding nominal bias terms to handle observed signal biases and non-Gaussian behavior of the underlying error terms. By including these terms it is possible to reduce the net impact of these biases on the user. Further, we propose tailoring the VPL equation to the most significant remaining threat to the user: single satellite fault modes. The L1-only VPL equation is appropriate for threats that affect many signals simultaneously as may happen with the ionosphere or troposphere. However, with the user directly eliminating ionospheric effects, the most significant threats come from satellite fault modes. As these faults are rare, they are unlikely to affect more than one ranging measurement at a time. Therefore, a VPL can be constructed to explicitly account for such a threat. We recommend that the dual frequency VPL take the following form:
(4)
where KHMI and σ5 is the Gaussian tail factor corresponding to the probability of Hazardously Misleading Information, s3,i is the projection of the pseudorange error onto the vertical position estimate, sff is the fault free overbounding sigma, biasnomis the nominal bias bound, Kfault is the Gaussian tail factor accounting for the probability of fault, and biasfault is a bound on the magnitude of all satellite faults. The H0 condition corresponds to the most likely condition of no faults present. The H1 condition corresponds to the unlikely event of a fault on the dominant satellite. The final VPL is the maximum across both conditions.
Because the faulted bias term covers the satellite faults the fault-free sigma term, σff, can be much smaller than the current total value (1), or the dual frequency version (3). Further, since the probability of fault is small, Kfault can be much smaller than KHMI . The net result is that the proposed VPL is smaller than the existing VPL for the same conditions. To model L1/L5 availability we chose the following parameters:
KHMI = 5.33
Kfault = 2.33
σ 2ff = (σflt / 3 ) 2 + σ 2iono_free + σ 2trop
biasnom = 0.5 m
biasfault = 5.333 x σflt
Other values follow the single frequency MOPS specifications as normally implemented by MAAST.
Given these parameters, the H1 hypothesis nearly always dominates the VPL calculation. We have used a nominal weighting scheme to optimize for accuracy. It is possible to deweight the dominant satellite to improve availability. We will be looking at practical methods for determining more optimal weighting for the VPL given in (4). However, there is a concern that such optimizations could harm accuracy. The potential benefits vs. risks will be studied.
The improvement in performance for a dual-frequency user can be seen in Figure 5. The coverage is significantly expanded. Now each region is robustly covered with large margins surrounding their intended service regions. However, coverage is still limited to the areas around these first three SBASs.
FIGURE 5. Potential dual frequency coverage of the first three SBASs including network improvements.
GAGAN and SDCM
Two additional SBASs are currently under development that will extend coverage to more regions. India is developing GAGAN. Currently it has eight Indian reference stations (INRES) all in India (blue diamonds in Figure 6). There is one Indian master control center (INMCC), and plans to use the GSAT-4 as its initial GEO. The GSAT-4 is planned for launch in 2010 and will be located near 82° E. The geomagnetic equator passes through India and it therefore faces the full impact of equatorial ionosphere. The advent of L5 will allow GAGAN to obtain high LPV-200 availability that is unlikely to be achievable for single-frequency users.
FIGURE 6. The networks of five SBAS systems are shown. In addition to the reference stations from Figure 3, the 8 Indian stations are shown as blue diamonds and the 19 Russian stations are shown as red stars.
Russia is developing SDCM. It now has nine operational measuring points (MPs) and has plans for at least 10 more locations, all in Russia (red stars in Figure 6). There are also plans to use three GEOs: Luch-5a planned for launch in 2010 and to be located near 16° W, Luch-5b planned for launch in 2011 and to be located near 95° E, and Luch-4 planned for launch in 2013 and to be located near 167° E.
Figure 7 shows the combined dual-frequency coverage of all five systems, WAAS, EGNOS, MSAS, GAGAN, and SDCM.
FIGURE 7. The combined dual frequency availability of the five SBASs is shown.
The vast majority of land masses in the northern hemisphere are now well covered by at least one of the SBASs. Figures 6 and 7 clearly highlight that the majority of development has occurred in the northern hemisphere. In fact, only two reference stations have been placed below the Equator.
Southern Hemisphere
If SBAS is to provide a global solution, its coverage must extend into the southern hemisphere. There have been many discussions with representatives of countries in the southern hemisphere. Further, the United States has had testbed receivers in South America for nearly 15 years. Europe has fielded receivers in Africa. Australia investigated its own variant of SBAS called the Ground-based Regional Augmentation System (GRAS). However, we are not aware of concrete plans for development in this hemisphere.
We anticipate that discussions will eventually evolve into firm plans and that either independent SBASs will be developed in these regions or existing SBASs will expand their networks southward. We have chosen to assume that WAAS, EGNOS, and MSAS will expand their networks to extend LPV-200 coverage to the southern portion of their GEO footprints. This is but one of many possible scenarios. The pr
oposed expansion shown in Figure 8 is not based on any plans, but is based on the notion that civil aviation authorities will want to obtain global coverage. The assumed new southern reference stations are shown as yellow-filled circles for WAAS in South America, yellow-filled squares for EGNOS in southern Africa, and yellow-filled triangles for MSAS in and around Australia. Advantages of dual frequency allow us to have much less dense networks for the expansions, in addition to allowing LPV-200 capability to be obtained in equatorial areas.
FIGURE 8. The networks of the five SBAS systems including hypothetical expansions into the southern hemisphere
Figure 9 shows the combined dual-frequency coverage for these SBASs with the expanded network. Now nearly all land masses have good LPV-200 coverage. Note that we have not attempted to optimize these networks to assure coverage to all land masses, not have we tried to find the minimum number of stations that offer this capability.
FIGURE 9. The combined dual frequency availability of the SBASs with the southern hemisphere stations is shown.
Added Core Constellations
Galileo is envisioned as compatible with GPS in that each satellite provides ranging using signals covering the L1 and L5 frequencies with similar modulations. Although the final specifications are not yet set, it is envisioned that Galileo satellites will provide a service that is fully interoperable with the GPS civil signals. Thus, we can approximately model Galileo satellites as being equivalent to GPS satellites in different orbits. In parallel, China is developing the COMPASS system whose signals are also planned to be compatible with GPS.
The Russian GLONASS system has been operational for many years. However, its current signal structure makes it less suited for incorporation into avionics. There are modernization plans to broadcast L1 signals that are more in alignment with the other constellations. Thus it, too, may one day be incorporated into SBAS. We believe that SBASs will someday broadcast satellite clock and ephemeris corrections for GPS and one or more other core constellations. These corrections will remove any difference in the reference times or coordinate frames between the two systems, allowing the corrected signals to be considered fully interchangeable.
Adding 24 or more extra ranging sources will have tremendous benefit for all civil GNSS users. The user’s geometry would be very robust to the loss of one or two satellites. Adding one or more core constellations has the potential to significantly improve SBAS coverage. We chose to model the addition of one constellation, by combining the almanac we used for GPS with one that had been proposed for Galileo. For these scenarios, MAAST is modeling 55 medium earth orbiting navigation satellites in addition to the GEOS used by each SBAS. Because the orbital repeat period is approximately 10 sidereal days for Galileo, the simulated time step and total run time were each increased by a factor of ten.
Figure 10 shows the improved coverage when the reference stations shown in Figure 6 are used. The additional satellites fill in many potential coverage gaps and now, compared to Figure 7, the SBASs all have even more reliable coverage well beyond their reference networks. Indeed, the Northern Hemisphere is now essentially fully covered. Figure 11 shows the results when the expanded networks of Figure 8 are incorporated. Compared to Figure 9, the southern hemisphere is much more reliably covered. The remaining gaps could easily be filled in with just a few more reference stations if full global coverage were desired.
FIGURE 10. The combined dual-frequency, LPV-200 coverage of the five SBAS systems with both GPS and Galileo.FIGURE 11. Combined dual-frequency LPV-200 coverage, SBASs with GPS and Galileo and the southern hemisphere stations.
Conclusions
For single-frequency SBAS the coverage is limited to areas very close to the monitoring station network. However, each region can obtain very good LPV-200 coverage within their desired service area. The addition of GPS L5 makes vertical guidance largely immune to ionospheric disturbances, and permits SBAS coverage to extend into equatorial areas. Independence from the ionospheric grid also allows service to extend farther away from the core network regions. When new Indian and Russian systems are commissioned, a very large fraction of the northern hemisphere will have LPV-200 coverage.
With dual frequency, LPV-200 coverage can be established with comparatively sparse networks in South America, Africa, and around Australia. Additional dual-frequency core constellations such as Galileo, Compass, or GLONASS could greatly expand coverage to well outside the original reference network regions. As GNSS capability is improved and expanded, we anticipate that SBAS coverage may one day provide nearly global LPV-200 or better service capability.
Acknowledgments
The authors acknowledge support of the FAA Satellite Product Office. However, the opinions and potential future scenarios reflect those of the authors and are not necessarily representative of the FAA.
Todd Walter is a senior research engineer at Stanford University. He has been active in the development of the Wide Area Augmentation System and related systems around the globe. His focus is on the provision of certified integrity for aviation applications.
Juan Blanch is a research associate at Stanford University, where he works on integrity algorithms for GNSS. He holds a Ph.D. in aeronautics and astronautics from Stanford.
Per Enge is professor of aeronautics and astronautics at Stanford, where he directs the Stanford GPS Research Laboratory. He has a Ph.D. from the University of Illinois.