The scheduled launch of the first GPS III satellite on December 18 was scrubbed, reportedly due to first stage liquid oxygen thermal limit constraints aboard the SpaceX Falcon 9 Block 5 launch vehicle’s first stage reaching safety limits. A second attempt on December 19 was later ruled out due to ongoing evaluations into the sensor issue.
The launch window may open again on Dec. 20.
This was to have been the first GPS launch aboard a SpaceX rocket, as well as the first SpaceX contracted U.S. National Security mission.
A Falcon 9 rocket awaits launch. (Photo: SpaceX)
The first GPS III satellite was originally scheduled to ride aboard a United Launch Alliance (ULA) Delta IV M+ rocket. ULA and/or its prime partners, Lockheed-Martin and Boeing, have conducted every GPS satellite launch since the start of the program. However, due to an assortment of issues variously involving delayed technology development and lawsuits regarding competitive bidding, the Air Force re-opened bidding for the contract as part of its Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program — “evolved” signifying that the rocket can be recovered and reused.
Recycling Rockets. ULA did not bid on the re-opened contract, citing concerns over the selection process and potential risks with the anticipated lower launch cost. In 2016, the Air Force selected SpaceX to take over most GPS III launches.
SpaceX’s Falcon 9 for this launch will use a new first stage core, the B1054. Although it has re-use capability, it will fly in an expendable configuration this time, with no landing legs and no grid fins. It will be disposed of into the Atlantic Ocean after separation from the second stage.
In other missions, after the satellite-bearing stage separates from the rest of the rocket, the remaining core launcher fires additional fuel to return intact to land or to sea aboard an Autonomous Spaceport Drone Ship (ASDS), a converted barge awaiting in the Atlantic or Pacific Ocean.
New Generation of GPS. As attentive readers already know, GPS III SV01 is the first of an entirely new design of GPS satellite that will help the Air Force modernize today’s GPS constellation with new technology and advanced capabilities.
GPS III has three times better accuracy and up to eight times improved anti-jamming capabilities. Spacecraft life will extend to 15 years, 25 percent longer than any of the GPS satellites on-orbit today. GPS III’s new L1C civil signal also will make it the first GPS satellite broadcasting a compatible signal with other international global navigation satellite systems, like Galileo, improving connectivity for civilian users.
Lockheed Martin developed GPS III and manufactured GPS III SV01 at its GPS III Processing Facility near Denver. In September 2017, the Air Force declared the satellite “Available for Launch” (AFL) and had the company place it into storage. In 2018, the Air Force called up the satellite for launch and Lockheed Martin delivered it to Florida on Aug. 20. The Air Force nicknamed the satellite “Vespucci” after Italian explorer, navigator and cartographer Amerigo Vespucci.
GPS III SV01 is the first of 10 GPS III satellites originally ordered by the Air Force. GPS III SV03-08 are now in various stages of assembly and test. In August, the Air Force declared the second GPS III AFL and in November called GPS III SV02 up for 2019 launch.
GPS III SV01 is now encapsulated and will be placed on the SpaceX rocket for Dec. 18 launch. (Photo: Lockheed Martin)
The U.S. Air Force’s first Lockheed Martin-built GPS III satellite is now encapsulated for its planned Dec. 18 launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, on a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket.
GPS III Space Vehicle 01 (GPS III SV01) underwent pre-launch processing, fueling and encapsulation at Astrotech Space Operations in Titusville, Florida. During encapsulation, GPS III SV01 was sealed in its launch fairing — an aerodynamic, nose-cone shell that protects the satellite during launch.
In the coming days, the fairing-enclosed satellite will be mounted to the rocket as launch preparations continue.
GPS III SV01 is the first of an entirely new design of GPS satellite that will help the Air Force modernize today’s GPS constellation with new technology and advanced capabilities.
GPS III has three times better accuracy and up to eight times improved anti-jamming capabilities. Spacecraft life will extend to 15 years, 25 percent longer than any of the GPS satellites on-orbit today. GPS III’s new L1C civil signal also will make it the first GPS satellite broadcasting a compatible signal with other international global navigation satellite systems, like Galileo, improving connectivity for civilian users.
“The world is dependent on GPS. More than four billion military, commercial and civilian users connect with signals generated by GPS satellites every day,” said Johnathon Caldwell, Lockheed Martin’s vice president for Navigation Systems. “The launch of GPS III SV01 will be the first step in modernizing the Air Force’s GPS constellation with the most powerful and resilient GPS satellites ever designed and built.”
Lockheed Martin developed GPS III and manufactured GPS III SV01 at its advanced $128-million GPS III Processing Facility near Denver. In September 2017, the Air Force declared the satellite “Available for Launch” (AFL) and had the company place it into storage.
In 2017, the Air Force “called up” the satellite for launch and Lockheed Martin delivered it to Florida on Aug. 20. The Air Force nicknamed the satellite “Vespucci” after Italian explorer Amerigo Vespucci.
GPS III SV01 is the first of 10 GPS III satellites originally ordered by the Air Force. GPS III SV03-08 are now in various stages of assembly and test. In August, the Air Force declared the second GPS III “AFL” and, in November, called GPS III SV02 up for 2019 launch.
In September, the Air Force selected Lockheed Martin for the GPS III Follow On (GPS IIIF) program, an estimated $7.2 billion opportunity to build up to 22 additional GPS IIIF satellites with additional capabilities.
GPS IIIF builds off Lockheed Martin’s existing modular GPS III, which was designed to evolve with new technology and changing mission needs. On Sept. 26, the Air Force awarded Lockheed Martin a $1.4 billion contract for support to start up the program and to contract the 11th and 12th GPS III satellite.
The U.S. Air Force has awarded a GPS III satellite launch contract to SpaceX. This is the third GPS III launch contract awarded; the previous two also were awarded to SpaceX.
SpaceX will receive a $290,594,130 firm-fixed-price contract for launch services to deliver three GPS III missions (1 base and 2 options) to the intended orbit using two Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicles (EELVs).
A SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket lifts off from Space Launch Complex 4E at Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, Jan. 14, 2017. (Photo: SpaceX)
The launch contract provides the government with a total launch solution for the GPS III mission, including launch vehicle production, mission integration, launch operations and spaceflight certification. The launches will take place from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station or Kennedy Space Center, Florida.
The GPS III missions are planned to launch between late 2019 and 2020.
“The three GPS III missions will deliver sustained, reliable GPS capabilities to America’s warfighters, our allies and civil users,” the U.S. Air Force said in a statement. GPS provides positioning, navigation and timing service to civil and military users worldwide.
In a second launch services contract, United Launch Alliance has been awarded a $351,839,510 firm-fixed-price contract for launch services to deliver Air Force Space Command (AFSPC)-8 and AFSPC-12 satellites to the intended orbit.
This is the fourth competition under the current Phase 1A procurement strategy. Both launch service contract awards strike a balance between meeting operational needs and lowering launch costs through reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions, according to Los Angeles Air Force Base, which made the announcement.
“The competitive award of these two EELV launch service contracts directly supports Space and Missile Systems Center’s mission of delivering resilient and affordable space capabilities to our nation while maintaining assured access to space,” said Lt. Gen. John F. Thompson, U.S. Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.
SpaceX won two previous GPS III launch contracts, one awarded in March 2017 and one in April 2016.
The second set of 10 Iridium NEXT satellites, launched June 25 by SpaceX, are functioning nominally and have begun the testing and validation process.
The batch of 10 satellites was launched from Vandenberg Air Force Base in California, increasing the total number of Iridium NEXT satellites in space to 20.
“We are thrilled with yesterday’s success,” said Scott Smith, chief operating officer at Iridium. “These new satellites are functioning well, and we are pressing forward with the testing process.”
“Since the last launch, the team at our Satellite Network Operations Center has been anxiously awaiting this new batch of satellites. There is a lot of work to do, and we are up for the challenge,” he said.
Now, and for approximately the next 45 days, the newly launched satellites will undergo a series of testing and validation procedures, ensuring they are ready for integration with the operational constellation.
Once testing is completed, Iridium will also hand over control of Aireon’s Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast hosted payload, to the team at Aireon’s Hosted Payload Operations Center, in Leesburg, Virginia.
Participation of the United Kingdom space industry in Galileo may be in doubt as negotiations get underway on details of the U.K. withdrawal from the European Union (EU).
European Commission officials signaled that they want to rely solely on producers within the European Union for the block’s major programs, citing security concerns such as the possible acquisition of a U.K. contractor by a company from a non-EU country such as China.
In particular, officials are concerned about protecting the heavily encrypted, jam-resistant Public Regulated Service capability designed for government use that is reserved for EU member states and where U.K. industry has had a significant role.
Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd., based in Guildford, England, but a subsidiary of France-based Airbus, built 22 navigation payloads for Europe’s Galileo satellite fleet.
Other companies with U.K. interests that could be affected include Qinetiq, CGI, Airbus and Scisys.
Galileo SAR Service Launched
Galileo’s Search And Rescue (SAR) service became officially operational with a public launch on April 6, as part of the COSPAS-SARSAT network for detecting and locating emergency beacons activated by aircraft, ships and hikers. According to the European Commission, Galileo SAR will help reduce the detection delay of a distress signal from up to several hours to 10 minutes.
At sea, this makes SAR rescue operations easier thanks to a narrowed search box, since the vessel in distress has less time to drift. On land, acquisition of a precise position enables rescue teams to more quickly reach the operation zone and assist the victims. In the air, Galileo contributes to fulfilling International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) requirements for implementing the next-generation emergency management system Global Aeronautical Distress and Safety System (GADSS).
SAR transponders on Galileo satellites can pick up signals emitted from 406-MHz distress beacons anywhere in the service coverage area and transmit this information to the dedicated ground stations, the Medium-Earth Orbit Local User Terminals (MEOLUTs). The SAR/Galileo infrastructure is interoperable with GPS and GLONASS SAR transponders.
Once the beacon is located by the MEOLUTs, the location data is sent to the COSPAS-SARSAT mission control center, which distributes it to the relevant rescue centers. These then coordinate the required rescue efforts.
Galileo provides a ground segment coverage of 40 million square kilometers over Europe as a contribution to MEOSAR global coverage. Galileo SAR service is one of the three services launched in December 2016 with the Initial Services. The SAR service represented 1 percent of total Galileo program costs, but should result in thousands of lives being saved, said the European Commission.
Pile of Studies Produced Not a Lot
Headshot: Gen. Shelton
Testifying before a joint hearing of the House Homeland Security Committee and House Armed Services strategic forces subcommittee on March 29, Retired Gen. William Shelton, the former head of Air Force Space Command, warned that the U.S. needs to take action to protect GPS very soon.
He cited demonstrated ability by the Chinese government in 2007 to destroy a satellite in orbit, and improved signal jamming and cyber attack capabilities against ground control systems. The U.S. is unprepared to meet those threats, he said.
“Here we are 10 years later and we don’t really have a lot to show but a pile of studies,” Shelton said. “We’ve been part of this ‘one more study’ kind of attitude. ‘Well, that may not be the perfect answer, so let’s just do one more study’ and meanwhile time marches on. Satellites have fixed lifetimes, and you need to plan for the death of the satellite. A decision not to move forward is a de facto decision to maintain the status quo with no protection.”
Shelton stated that space research and development is at a 30-year low, with 15–40 percent of R&D funds taken by management services and technical assistance rather than actual research and development.
“The executive branch and the legislative branch could get together and agree on a strategy and a way forward and then execute … I don’t see any other way. There has to be some broad agreement here in the whole of government as we move forward.”
June Launch in japan for QZSS Michibiki 2
QZSS’s second satellite is scheduled for launch in June. Once completed, the Quasi-Zenith Satellite System will be a satellite augmentation system for GPS over Japan and other parts of the Pacific region.
Michibiki 2 will be launched by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA), with a launch window planned for June 1–30. The system’s first Michibiki satellite was launched in September 2010.
OCX Back on Track
OCX, the next-generation ground control system for GPS, is back on track following a 2016 government contract breach that prompted the Air Force to work with Raytheon to revise OCX’s budget and schedule, according to the company.
Raytheon implemented a series of corrective actions through 2015 and 2016 to get the delayed program on a firm timeframe for completion. Coding on OCX was about 80 percent complete in late March, according to the company.
Raytheon completed a re-baselining on OCX in March, setting up a new timeline for completion. Current delivery for the full system is planned for December 2020.
DevOps. The OCX team reduced development cycle times to create more efficient software development by using a commercial best practice called DevOps, which adds more automation into coding and testing, and breaks coding down into units rather than focusing on the need to finish the complete system all at once.
A subset of OCX, the Launch and Checkout System for GPS satellites is undergoing testing at Schriever Air Force Base in Colorado. Raytheon expects to complete testing and deliver the system by late September or early October.
EGNOS Refreshes
The geosynchrous Earth-orbit (GEO) satellites broadcasting EGNOS messages changed in March. PRN 123 was introduced in the operational platform, and PRN 136 was moved from the operational platform to the test platform.
Regional aviation in the dense European air traffic system is a key market segment for EGNOS, according to Gian Gherardo Calini, the European GNSS Agency’s head of market development. More than 440 EGNOS-based approaches are available at nearly 220 airports across Europe. These figures are expected to dramatically increase in the coming years.
A proposal from the European Aviation Safety Agency recommends that air ANSPs and aerodrome operators implement Performance Based Navigation (PBN) approach procedures with vertical guidance (APV), such as EGNOS LPVs, at all non-precision instrument runway ends by 2020.
Second GPS III Launch Contracted
The U.S. Air Force has awarded a second GPS III satellite launch contract to SpaceX.
According to the $96.5 million agreement, the company will provide GPS III launch vehicle production, mission integration, launch operations, spaceflight worthiness and mission-unique activities. Work is expected to be complete by April 30, 2019.
An earlier SpaceX launch contract, worth $82.7 million, calls for orbiting a GPS satellite aboard a Falcon 9 rocket in May 2018.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 stands ready for launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. The Air Force awarded a second contract for GPS III Launch Services to SpaceX.
SpaceX has won a second contract from the U.S. Air Force for launch services to deliver a GPS III satellite to its intended orbit.
SpaceX was awarded the $96,500,490 firm-fixed-price contract over the United Launch Alliance. ULA — a joint venture of Lockheed Martin Space Systems and Boeing Defense, Space & Security — did not compete for the first GPS III launch contract. That contract, worth $82.7 million, is expected to orbit a GPS satellite aboard a Falcon 9 rocket in May 2018.
According to the contract announcement, SpaceX will provide launch vehicle production, mission integration, launch operations, spaceflight worthiness and mission unique activities for a GPS III mission. The contract is being overseen by the Air Force’s Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC), Los Angeles Air Force Base, California.
Work will be performed at Hawthorne, California; Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida; and McGregor, Texas. It is expected to be complete by April 30, 2019.
“The competitive award of the GPS III Launch Services contract to SpaceX directly supports SMC’s mission of delivering resilient and affordable space capabilities to our nation,” said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, leader of SMC.
The Air Force has released a Request for Proposal (RFP) for launch services for the GPS III-3 mission, scheduled to launch in 2019. Proposals are due Sept. 19; the contract will be a standalone contract for a single GPS III launch.
The United Launch Alliance (ULA) and SpaceX are expected to compete for the contract. In April, SpaceX was chosen to launch the GPS III-2 satellite in May 2018. ULA chose not to compete.
The RFP seeks an Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) Launch Service. The draft RFP was released on June 14 to obtain industry feedback to inform the Final RFP. After extensive industry engagements, the Final RFP was released on Aug. 3 with proposals due back to the Air Force no later than Sept. 19 in accordance with the solicitation instructions.
After evaluating proposals through a competitive, best-value source selection process, the Air Force will award a firm-fixed price contract that will provide the government with a total launch solution including launch vehicle production, mission integration and launch operations for the GPS III-3 satellite.
Artist’s concept of the nextgen GPS III satellite (courtesy of the USAF).
The Air Force’s acquisition strategy for this solicitation achieves a balance between mission success/operational needs, and lowering launch costs, through reintroducing competition for national security space missions, the Air Force said in a press release.
“Launch system certification is a key element (high technical bar) within this solicitation to provide insight into the technical capabilities and rigorous processes that demonstrate a launch vehicle contractor’s ability to design, develop, manufacture, and launch national security space missions and contributes to the overall flight worthiness process,” said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Space and Missile Systems Center commander and Air Force program executive officer for Space. Prior to contract award, the contracting officer will verify that the Offeror has a certified launch system as part of a responsibility determination resulting in a high technical bar.
“Through this competitive solicitation for GPS III launch services, we hope to continue fostering competition in order to promote innovation and reduce cost to the taxpayer while maintaining our laser focus on mission success,” Greaves said.
GPS III is expected to provide improved anti-jamming capabilities as well as improved accuracy for precision, navigation, and timing. It will incorporate the common L1C signal which is compatible with the European Space Agency’s Galileo global navigation satellite system and compliment current services with the addition of new civil and military signals.
The first GPS III satellite undergoes system-level thermal vacuum testing. (Photo: Lockheed Martin)
This is the second competitive launch service solicitation under the current Phase 1A procurement strategy. The Phase 1A procurement strategy reintroduces competition for national security space launch services. Under the previous Phase 1 strategy, ULA was the only certified launch provider. In 2013, ULA was awarded a sole-source contract for launch services as part of an Air Force “Block Buy” of 36 rocket cores that resulted in significant savings for the government through FY 2017.
In May 2015, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) was certified for EELV launches resulting in two launch service providers that are qualified to design, produce, qualify and deliver a launch capability and provide the mission assurance support required to deliver national security space satellites to orbit.
A SpaceX Falcon 9 stands ready for launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Fla. The Air Force awarded a contract for GPS III Launch Services to SpaceX.
The U.S. Air Force has awarded SpaceX the first competitively sourced National Security Space (NSS) launch services contract in more than a decade.
Space Exploration Technologies Corporation (SpaceX) was awarded a contract for GPS III Launch Services. This is a firm-fixed price, standalone contract with a total value of $82,700,000.
SpaceX will provide the government with a total launch solution for the GPS-III satellite, which includes launch vehicle production, mission integration and launch operations and spaceflight certification. The launch will be the second GPS III launch and is scheduled to launch from Cape Canaveral Air Force Station, Florida, in May 2018.
“This GPS III Launch Services contract award achieves a balance between mission success, meeting operational needs, lowering launch costs, and reintroducing competition for National Security Space missions,” said Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves, Air Force Program Executive Officer for Space and SMC commander.
Another launch service provider, United Launch Alliance (ULA), chose not to compete for the contract.
GPS III is the next generation of GPS satellites that will introduce new capabilities to meet the higher demands of both military and civilian users. The satellite is expected to provide improved anti-jamming capabilities as well as improved accuracy for precision navigation and timing. It will incorporate the common L1C signal, which is compatible with the European Space Agency’s Galileo global navigation satellite system and compliment current services with the addition of new civil and military signals.
This is the first of nine competitive launch services planned in the FY 2016 President’s Budget Request under the current Phase 1A procurement strategy, which covers awards with FY 2015-2018 funding. The next solicitation for launch services will be for a second GPS III satellite. This award marks a milestone in the Air Force’s ongoing efforts to reintroduce a competitive procurement environment into the Evolved Expendable Launch Vehicle (EELV) program as directed by Frank Kendall, Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics.
The Phase 1A procurement strategy reintroduces competition for national security space launch services. Under the Phase 1 strategy, United Launch Alliance (ULA) was the only certified launch provider. In 2013, ULA was awarded a sole-source contract for launch services as part of an Air Force “block buy” of 36 rocket cores that resulted in significant savings for the government through FY 2017.
In May 2015, Space Exploration Technologies (SpaceX) was certified for EELV launches resulting in two launch service providers that are capable to design, produce, qualify, and deliver a launch capability and provide the mission assurance support required to deliver national security space satellites to orbit. The certified baseline configuration of SpaceX’s Falcon 9 Launch System to Falcon 9 Upgrade was recently updated for use in National Security Space (NSS) missions.
The Air Force Space Command’s Space and Missile Systems Center, located at the Los Angeles Air Force Base, Calif., is the U.S. Air Force’s center of excellence for acquiring and developing military space systems. Its portfolio includes the Global Positioning System, military satellite communications, defense meteorological satellites, space launch and range systems, satellite control networks, space based infrared systems and space situational awareness capabilities.
The late, great, oft-quoted Yogi Berra, in an interview shortly before his passing, was quoted as saying “I never said most of the things I said.” For our purposes, let’s concentrate on one of his most famous quotes: “When you come to a fork in the road, take it.”
On to GPS. I use the term GPS in a ubiquitous PNT (position, navigation and timing) sense for simplicity, because most people today use the term in a universal sense, similar to how we say “Google It” no matter which search engine we’re actually using.
Today, GPS is indeed at a crossroads, and there are multiple paths or avenues to follow — or Courses of Action (COA), as the government likes to say. Fortunately, most of you reading this fully realize GPS is so much more than just an atomic reference system in MEO, or Medium Earth Orbit. Let’s review the various GPS programs and see how they’re faring.
GPS III
Let’s be conventional and start with the hardware, the actual satellite bus (vehicle) being built by Lockheed Martin Space Systems in its Waterton facility in the beautiful foothills of the Rocky Mountains in Littleton just west of Denver, Colorado.
In an October 2015 speech before the International Astronautical Congress in Jerusalem, Israel, LMCO Chairman, President and CEO Marillyn Hewson stated the following in a marvelous speech entitled “There are No Borders in Space: International Cooperation Will Drive the New Space Age:”
“We must focus on three priorities for the future of space. The first is space as an instrument to create global industrial partnership. Second is space as a driver of economic growth. And third is space as an opportunity to inspire the next generation of innovators.”
Chairman Hewson concentrated on the future of space, as are we, and probably due to her venue, she naturally chose to focus on international cooperation. She went on to say this about GPS specifically:
“GPS III, the next-generation of the U.S. Air Force’s Global Positioning System, will share a new, common civil signal with other international navigation satellites like Galileo and GLONASS. That means people around the world will have more accurate and reliable positioning data and connectivity from a truly global positioning constellation.”
Speaking about space capabilities and opportunities in general, she said:
“Space-based technologies are ubiquitous today. Want to find an address? Find out the weather forecast? Talk to someone on the other side of the world? The fact is, space is already an enabler of economic growth. And with today’s innovations combined with the power of international partnerships, it has the potential to drive magnitudes more.
“Today, the space sector represents about 1 percent of global economic activity. Yet, I could argue that without space, the other 99 percent wouldn’t be nearly as effective or efficient. Partners are developing commercial satellites that connect people around the world, enable distance learning and fuel job growth in many sectors of the global economy.”
You really can’t fault any of Chairman Hewson’s statements about space and GPS in particular. Indeed, it is an excellent presentation as it embodies the essence of motherhood and apple pie for space-faring nations.
However, she has glossed over one of the most pressing problems, not only for GPS III, but for all potential U.S. space-based assets still to be launched: access to space. How are we going to actually lift the satellites into orbit? Where are the launch vehicles?
United Launch Alliance
ULA launch. (Courtesy of United Launch Alliance)
Many of you may have seen the latest GPS III launch services announcement by United Launch Alliance (ULA), a consortium of Boeing and LMCO launch companies taking advantage of the synergies each company brings to the launch arena. Officially, ULA is described as a 50-50 joint venture between Lockheed Martin and The Boeing Company, formed in 2006 to provide reliable, cost-efficient access to space for U.S. government missions.
Just a few weeks ago, ULA — the consortium that has launched all GPS satellites since 2006 with more than 90 consecutive government launches without a single failure, a world record — made what many consider to be a startling, albeit carefully worded, announcement regarding the latest and what many consider to be unduly restrictive government GPS III RFP (Request For Proposal) for launch services.
“ULA wants nothing more than to compete, but unfortunately we are unable to submit a compliant bid for GPS III-X launch services. The RFP requires ULA to certify that funds from other government contracts will not benefit the GPS III launch mission. ULA does not have the accounting systems in place to make that certification, and therefore cannot submit a compliant proposal.
“In addition, the RFP’s Lowest Price Technically Acceptable (LPTA) structure allows for no ability to differentiate between competitors on the basis of critical factors such as reliability, schedule certainty, technical capability and past performance.
“Further, under the restrictions imposed by the 2015 National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA), ULA does not currently have any Atlas engines available to bid and therefore is unable to submit a timely proposal.
“ULA remains fully committed to supporting America’s national security missions with world-class launch services. We look forward to working with the Air Force to address the obstacles to ULA’s participation in future launch competitions to enable a full and fair competition.”
A separate ULA press release states ULA will continue with development of its Vulcan launch vehicle, which they bill as a next-generation launch system. So it appears that it is merely the restrictions and caveats that pose a problem for ULA and GPS III launches, not technology or timelines.
“With the introduction of the Vulcan, ULA’s next-generation launch system (NGLS), ULA is transforming the future of space launch — making it more affordable, accessible and commercialized — and innovating to develop solutions to the nation’s most critical need: reliable access to space,” ULA said.
The Falcon .9 (Courtesy of SpaceX)
SpaceX
With ULA out of the picture, at least temporarily, for GPS III launches, this leaves the door open for Elon Musk, recently of Big Bang Theory fame, and his Space Exploration Technologies Corporation better known as SpaceX to step in and fill the void presumably with a variation of their heavy lift Falcon 9 rocket.
SpaceX promotes itself as the largest private producer of rocket engines worldwide, and no doubt that is true. SpaceX has demonstrated the capability for both successful launches and spectacular failures. That is almost to be expected for a new rocket engine and a new company, which only came about in 2002. However, where human lives are concerned, failure is not an acceptable option.
SpaceX is very much aware that a launch failure resulting in lives lost might well spell the end of SpaceX. With that as a given, SpaceX recently delivered its 100th Merlin 1D engine, nine of which form the basis for the first stage of the Falcon 9 launch vehicle. Indeed, SpaceX touts unparalleled redundancy — with nine Merlin 1D engines on the first stage, it could actually overcome a failure of any one of the Merlin engines and still have a successful launch.
Merlin ID engines all in a row. (Courtesy of SpaceX)
Only time will tell, however, and this scenario leaves the U.S. government with very few options as long as the current guidelines regarding the Russian RD-180 core are in place. Other companies such as Moog, Orbital Sciences, Aerojet Rocketdyne, Blue Origins and ATK, to name a few potential contenders, could separately or as a team bid on the next-generation launch vehicle for GPS III.
However, that would mean storing the GPS III satellites and payloads for inordinately long periods of time, which is both expensive and risky. Expensive in dollars, since each GPS III space vehicle (SV) would cost approximately $1 million per year — not an official figure, but a best guess from several sources, to store, and expensive and risky from an operational point of view in that the federal government and LMCO would have no idea if the GPS III SVs and payloads really worked as advertised.
They would have no idea if there were any major flaws or anomalies, and once the production line at LMCO space systems was shut down, it would be prohibitively expensive to restart, if that were even possible. Remember, three GPS III SVs are being constructed currently, and today there are only eight confirmed orders for GPS III SVs.
As for major anomalies, just think back to the GPS IIF launches where the first four each revealed a major and separate anomaly for IIF SVs that had to be corrected on all future SVs and payloads before further launches occurred.
My sources at LMCO in Littleton assure me the first GPS III SV with a complete payload, built by Harris nee Exelis, nee ITT, will be ready for delivery to the government in mid-2016, possibly earlier. With a 90-day checkout the first GPS III SV could be ready for launch as early as late fall 2016.
The problem at that point becomes — and actually is a problem right here and now — there is no evidence that the government currently has a viable certified program to launch, control or maintain the GPS III satellites and payloads. But that is another story with many twists and turns.
The Road Less Taken
Apparently, there are numerous options for the government where GPS programs are concerned, and for a change many of those options, while being considered outside the box, actually appear to be the smarter choice.
As that great American poet Robert Frost once famously wrote:
“I shall be telling this with a sigh
Somewhere ages and ages hence:
Two roads diverged in a wood, and I—
I took the one less traveled by,
And that has made all the difference.”
Until next time, Happy Holidays, Happy New Year and Happy Navigating on that road less traveled by.
The United Launch Alliance (ULA) declined Nov. 16 to submit a bid to launch the GPS III satellite, leaving the field wide open for commercial launch service SpaceX, reports Space News.
The first GPS III satellite is expected to launch in 2018.
Every operational GPS mission has launched on a ULA or heritage rocket — the most recent being the GPS IIF-11, which launched on Oct. 31.
ULA said it did not submit a bid in part because it does not expect to have an Atlas 5 rocket available for the mission, according to Space News. Legislation passed by Congress in 2014 requires the Air force to phase out its use of the Russian-made RD-180 engine that powers the Atlas 5 rocket used by ULA.
In late June, I had the honor and privilege of attending and participating in the Institute of Navigation’s Joint Navigation Conference (ION-JNC) in Orlando, Fla. This year attendance was up by 20 percent. The entire event was FOUO (For Official Use Only) with a classified (SECRET) day on Thursday held at, as improbable as it seems, a joint military and Walt Disney location known as Shades of Green. It gives Mickey Mouse and the military a whole new meaning!
The classified day included a remarkable War Fighter Panel, which, full disclosure, I have had the honor along with my colleague Jim Doherty at IDA (Institute For Defense Analyses) of co-chairing for the last several years. It is always heart-warming and invariably enlightening to hear our warfighters discuss capabilities that GPS enables for them in times of peace and war. You could even say this was the theme of the conference: “The capabilities that GPS technology enables.”
You might assume an FOUO- and SECRET-level conference would be slim pickings for a journalist. If that is all that transpired, then you would be correct; however, all the conversations outside the official sessions, especially around the displays and exhibitors’ booths, make it more than worthwhile. Not to mention all the tidbits you pick up at breakfast, lunch, dinner and evening socials. One of the most common phrases I heard all week was, “Now don’t quote me on this, but…” or the one I like to hear, “OK, this is on the record” or “You are recording this, right?” Everyone has a message!
ION-JNC in Dayton, Ohio
For the next two years (2016-17) ION-JNC will be held in beautiful downtown Dayton, Ohio, at the Dayton Convention Center. Dayton is home to the famous Wright Brothers Cycle Shop and the Wright Flyer.
Take-off of the 1903 Wright Flyer, the world’s first powered, sustained and controlled heavier-than-air flight on Dec. 17, 1903.
Dayton also hosts the world-famous National Museum of the USAF (United States Air Force) located on Wright-Patterson Air Force Base (WPAFB). The classified day will be held at the prestigious USAF Institute of Technology (AFIT), also on WPAFB, where many an Air Force officer has earned a master’s and or Ph.D. The papers and sessions should be outstanding in view of the venue and the presence of the Air Force Research Laboratory (AFRL) at WPAFB, which is known as the Air Force’s only organization wholly dedicated to leading the discovery, development and integration of warfighting technologies for air, space and cyberspace forces.
Register early and send your clearance if you have one; it just gets better every year.
SpaceX and Falcon 9
Elon Musk,CEO Space Exploration Technology Corp. (Photo Courtesy of Tesla Motors)
I arrived in Orlando on Sunday, June 21 (yes, I traveled on Father’s Day) because events start bright and early Monday morning, to hear about the Falcon 9 launch failure, the first for that family of launchers. Even though it occurred 130+ seconds into the launch segment, if the rocket fails to deliver the payload or supplies to orbit or their destination, it is generally referred to as a launch failure. Technicians and subject-matter experts will be debating for some time exactly what caused the failure, but there can be no doubt this is a big blow to the Space Exploration Technology Corporation — better known as SpaceX.
I have known Elon Musk and experienced his outsize ego casually for more than 20 years, and I am constantly amazed at his accomplishments and would never bet against him. I do not mean the ego remark in a negative way, because history proves that if Elon says he will accomplish the seemingly impossible, then he will do just that. Can you say Tesla Motors? Setbacks just make him and his team more determined.
“It is difficult to say what is impossible, for the dream of yesterday is the hope of today and the reality of tomorrow.” — Dr. Robert Goddard
Gwynne Shotwell, COO Space Exploration Technology Corp. (Photo Courtesy of SpaceX)
However, launch setbacks are played out on a national stage where lives may well be at stake. SpaceX President and COO (Chief Operating Officer) Gwynne Shotwell, the brains of the outfit, who is as alluring as she is brilliant, said following the launch failure, “I’m sure we will find the cause rapidly and resume normal launch operations within a year.”
Reportedly, SpaceX is already a bit tardy in scheduled launches with an enviable backlog totaling approximately $7B, many of which are government payloads. In the end, this merely highlights that the launch business is a tough nut to crack, and attention to detail is paramount. Every little detail must be scrutinized numerous times.
BAR
In the mid 1990s, Dr. John Darrah and I (then AFSPC Chief Scientist and Deputy respectively) under the auspices of Air Force Space Command and the Institute For Defense Analyses (IDA) formed a high-level group of subject matter experts (SMEs) to review why the U.S. government, in the matter of a few months, put several billion dollars worth of space hardware into saltwater instead of the vacuum of space. The group was labeled the BAR, or Broad Area Review, and its task was to euphemistically “bar” this type of abnormal launch activity from ever happening again. I can honestly say the BAR has been wildly successful.
There have been five separate BARs to date, and there has not been a military or national security space launch failure since the BAR’s inception. There have begen more than 120 successful launches by Lockheed Martin, Boeing and the combined organization known as ULA or United Launch Alliance. I am not at liberty to reveal the findings of the various BARs, but obviously attention to detail is key to any successful endeavor.
SpaceX vaulted from an upstart small company with a few employees to a certified government space launch contractor with more than $7 billion in contracts and 3,000+ personnel on the payroll in only 13 years. SpaceX previously successfully launched two cargo resupply missions to the space station. To date, it is the only predominantly commercial space company to accomplish that task.
Therefore, I am sanguine without a doubt (now I sound like Elon) that SpaceX will quickly discover the malfunction that caused the launch failure and correct it immediately. This is not to say that anyone at SpaceX has been intentionally careless, but the successful space launch business today is by necessity an OCD (obsessive compulsive disorder) culture of attention to detail where items are checked not once or twice but 20 times to make sure nothing has been overlooked or assumed. However, for SpaceX the critical task, for the success of the company and future astronauts’ lives, depends on SpaceX’s assurance there will be no more failures for any reason. The U.S. military has proven for the last 16 years — 16 years without a single national security space launch failure — that it is an achievable goal. Note: Currently SpaceX launches do not fall under the purview of the BAR, a situation easily rectified.
Assured Access to Space
General (USAF, Ret) Thomas S. Moorman Jr. (Photo Courtesy of the USAF)
Lest we forget, behind all the technological arguments and/or failures is the crux of the matter, which is nothing less than assured access to space and all that capability enables, which of course includes GPS. In 2006, General (USAF Retired) Thomas S. Moorman Jr., former AFSPC commander and VCSAF, wrote in the highly esteemed AFSPC publication High Frontier regarding a Senior Leader’s Perspective on Assured Access to Space. He stated clearly that
“Assured access [to space] is a requirement for critical national security, homeland security and civil missions, and is defined as a sufficiently robust, responsive and resilient capability to allow continued space operations, consistent with risk management and affordability.”
In referring to his now famous and eponymous study, he stated that,
“The study found that most people wanted to describe assured access in terms of reliability. As the study team progressed in our analysis, it became apparent that often what people were describing was the need for resiliency rather than reliability. Reliability describes the dependability of a specific booster while resiliency considers the collective ability of all available launch systems to meet national security need.
“While our recent launch record…is indeed impressive, we should not rest on our laurels. Assured access is not a destination, but rather a journey. As a nation, we need to continue to adequately fund space launch operations and develop the next-generation technologies that will increase responsiveness, improve reliability, and reduce costs. Through these actions, we can ensure the nation will have continuous, uninterrupted access to space for decades to come.”
In that light it is possible — even probable — that SpaceX will help us strive, reach and continue with that vaunted goal; contrarily, you may remember a few months ago SpaceX sued the U.S. government because the government was not moving quickly enough for Space X with certifications and validations for SpaceX launch vehicles. The U.S. government knows first hand how difficult the space launch business can be, and it wanted to ensure that not only was SpaceX ready but that their family of vehicles were reliable. The government’s caution has unfortunately been validated, as this was the second SpaceX launch failure, although the first and hopefully the last in the Falcon 9 family of vehicles. All is not lost, and the future actually looks bright for SpaceX if it will just put egos aside, listen to the launch subject matter experts and pay attention to every little detail.
Competition may well be viewed as a “good thing” in the space launch business. However, it is always trumped by assured access to space, which is a critical national security requirement. Competition and national security needs must be balanced with the emphasis on what is gained by assured access to the high ground of space. Elon Musk, Gwynne Shotwell and the SpaceX team may well be capable of showing the rest of us “how it is done,” but first they must demonstrate unerring dependability, reliability and resiliency. I wish SpaceX the best of luck and every success.
Nascent Leadership Paradigm — People on the Move
For some unfathomable reason, at least intellectually, all the USAF Leadership Schools, or at least the majority, are located in Montgomery, Ala. Now personally I happen to like Montgomery and its laid-back southern charm. It was also once the capitol of the Confederacy, which is apropos nothing except it seems to be a hot topic or trigger word these days. Be that as it may, Montgomery and Air University are not exactly Oxford, Cambridge or Eton, and yet the university in its many incarnations has produced outstanding military leaders in its 95-year history. And yet in my numerous tenures at this prestigious institution, it has been made clear by the staff that this is an institution with bipolar tendencies.
On the one hand, it is made clear to every officer and student that the national military establishment thrives on rules and regulations, and those wishing to abuse or ignore them can readily and rapidly be replaced. Some instructors I encountered (not all certainly, and probably not the cream of the crop) would have you believe that individualism has its place — just not in the U.S. military. Then, in the next class or session, you hear stories about visionaries such as Claire Chennault, Jimmy Doolittle and William “Billy” Mitchell, who never colored within the lines. Not to disparage Air University, but I have always had a problem with this school tenet, as it tends to disregard personality, relationships and leadership. I often think of General Dwight Eisenhower’s comments concerning his rebellious, unorthodox and rule-breaking friend U.S. Army General George Patton. Eisenhower made numerous famous comments about Patton’s rebellious nature, his inability to follow orders and his swashbuckling uniforms that once paraded 24 general’s stars at one time on one non-standard uniform, and yet in official comments written after Patton’s untimely death Eisenhower wrote:
“He [Patton] was one of those men born to be a soldier, an ideal combat leader whose gallantry and dramatic personality inspired all he commanded to great deeds of valor. His presence gave me the certainty that the boldest plan would be even more daringly executed. It is no exaggeration to say that Patton’s name struck terror at the heart of the enemy.”
In other words personality, individualism, reputation and leadership do make a difference, and in times of war, leaders bearing those qualities are difficult if not impossible to replace. But in times of peace, those qualities still matter, and we should never take those leaders for granted. I mention this because in the past several months, several Air Force leaders considered key to the GPS program have either retired, been promoted or left government service for personal reasons.
USAF General Ellen Pawlikowski is only the third female four-star general in USAF history, and she recently left SMC (Space and Missile Systems Center) for a job at the Pentagon, where she worked space and GPS acquisition and policy issues. From there she was promoted to four stars and now sits as just the ninth commander of Air Force Materiel Command. Gen. Pawlikowski was replaced at SMC by Lt. Gen. Samuel Greaves (USAF).
Brigadier General William Cooley (USAF) recently pinned on his first star while serving as the director of the GPS Directorate at SMC. He was recently selected for reassignment as program executive, Programs and Integration, Office of the Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, Missile Defense Agency (MDA), Redstone Arsenal, Alabama —an organization where Lt. Gen. Sam Greaves once served as the deputy commander. Can you say career broadening? Brig. Gen. “Wild Bill” Cooley is being replaced by USAF Colonel Steve Whitney, who has distinguished himself with yeoman service at the directorate as the GPS Military User Equipment (MUE) guru.
David W. Madden serves as a member of the Defense Intelligence Senior Executive Service and functions as the executive director, Space and Missile Systems Center, Air Force Space Command, Los Angeles Air Force Base, Calif. He is the senior civilian executive and the deputy program executive officer for Space. His responsibilities include managing the research, design, development, acquisition and sustainment of satellites and the associated ground command and control systems and user terminals. In his military career, Dave served as the GPS Wing Commander at SMC. For personal and professional reasons, Dave has decided to leave government service soon, and my sources tell me he will take up a position in Denver, Colo. Unfortunately, I am not currently at liberty to say where. I have been told the name of Dave’s replacement, but it was in an FOUO session and therefore not currently releasable. Suffice it to say, the individual is eminently qualified.
Each of the individuals mentioned has a very strong personality and a certain way of doing business. I have known them all for years and can honestly say their personalities and personal leadership styles dominated their successful careers to date. Frankly, I don’t see that changing. So, when you hear that military personnel are interchangeable and personalities don’t matter, as I unfortunately heard a very senior official say publicly recently, please take that with a huge grain of salt and skepticism. People, personalities and leadership styles do matter, especially outside-the-box thinkers and leaders. Let’s wish everyone the best in their new endeavors.
Until next time, Happy Navigating, and remember: GPS is brought to you courtesy of the United States Air Force.
United Launch Alliance crews on July 7 placed the next GPS satellite on top of an Atlas V rocket for blastoff later this month, reports SpaceFlight Now.
Liftoff for the GPS IIF-10 satellite will take place July 15, between 11:36 and 11:55 a.m. EDT, from Space Launch Complex (SLC)-41 at Cape Canaveral, Fla.
This is the second of three GPS constellation replenishment flights planned in 2015. The first launch, of GPS IIF-9 using a Delta IV rocket, occurred on March 25. A third launch, of GPS IIF-11 using an Atlas rocket, is scheduled for Sept. 22. The launch of GPS IIF-12 is scheduled for Jan. 26, 2016.
The Boeing-built GPS IIF-10 is one of the next-generation GPS satellites, incorporating various improvements to provide greater accuracy, increased signals, and enhanced performance for users.
GPS IIF-10 marks the 55th Atlas V launch since the vehicle’s inaugural launch in 2002 and the 27th flight of the 401 configuration. Every operational GPS mission has launched on a United Launch Alliance or heritage rocket. While the government has certified ULA competitor SpaceX for GPS III launches, a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket exploded June 29, two minutes after launch of an International Space Station resupply mission.
