On March 4, Raytheon successfully passed the first formal qualification test milestone for the U.S. Air Force’s GPS Next Generation Operational Control System (GPS OCX). The new system offers significant improvements to the GPS on which the U.S. military and millions of civilians rely, including enhanced availability, accuracy and security.
The event was the Configuration Item Qualification Test (CIQT) milestone for the Launch and Checkout System (LCS). The system provides launch and early orbit checkout capabilities for the modernized GPS III satellites and implements 77 percent of the cybersecurity capabilities for the overall OCX program. The testing was successfully conducted in a representative operational environment with a government-provided GPS III satellite simulator.
“The completion of this test milestone validates the maturity of the OCX launch and checkout system,” said Bill Sullivan, GPS OCX program director for Raytheon. “As a result of strong collaboration with the Air Force, we were able to demonstrate the system’s performance and increase confidence in the program’s path ahead.”
The LCS CIQT Run-for-Record was completed more than one month ahead of the plan established in mid-2015, clearing the way for LCS to proceed toward the Factory Qualification Test, the next major qualification event. The FQT test will be at the integrated system level and will take place this summer.
When completed, the U.S. Air Force-led GPS Modernization Program will provide new positioning, navigation, and timing capabilities for both the U.S. military and civilian users around the globe.
GPS OCX is being developed by Raytheon under contract to the U.S. Air Force Space and Missile Systems Center, which is replacing the current GPS operational control system. The OCX Launch and Checkout System provides an early delivery of a large subset of the overall OCX capability, and will support the GPS III satellite launches.
The Block 0/Launch and Checkout System infrastructure before being shipped to Schriever Air Force Base and installed. (Photo: Raytheon)
The next-generation GPS ground-control system, known as OCX.
The White House budget request for the Next Generation Operational Control System (OCX) comes to $393.3 million for fiscal year (FY) 2017.
The updated OCX budget appears as the Air Force officially acknowledges a two-year delay in the program, which could slide as late as 2023 for implementation.
The total cost for OCX now amounts to $4.81 billion.
In a cautionary move meant to span a suddenly yawning gap in ground control capabilities, the GPS Directorate awarded a $96 million contract modification to Lockheed Martin Space Systems to provide GPS III Contingency Operations services (COps).
By the end of 2019, Lockheed will “modify the current GPS control segment to operate all GPS III satellites that are launched prior to the transition” to OCX, as well as GPS III satellite vehicle simulation modules, a GPS simulator and updates to the GPS Positional Training Emulator.
Late delivery of OCX Block 1 “puts GPS constellation sustainment at risk since the current control segment cannot operate GPS III satellites,” according to a Pentagon statement.
The Air Force will “re-phase the GPS III space vehicle procurement profile,” delaying procurement of the 11th and all following GPS IIIs to FY18.
User Equipment. In contrast, the Pentagon substantially increased its request for developing user equipment to $278.2 million for FY17.
The added funds for Military GPS User Equipment (MGUE) seek to speed platform integration of M-code capability for munitions, warfighters, armored vehicles, planes and all military platforms: a stronger signal and data authentication capability.
OCX must navigate latest acquisition reforms
Acquisition reform mandated by Congress for the U.S. military, and known as Better Buying Power 3.0 guidance and initiatives, poses a tough new challenge for the Pentagon, not least for the Air Force and GPS.
This comes in the face of an impending (some say already underway) cyberwar targeting core infrastructure, much of it controlled or metered to some extent by GPS.
Under-Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics Frank Kendall stated in 2014 that the United States is “under attack in the cyber world” and “we’ve got to do a better job protecting our things.”
The cyber realm changes and innovates much faster than the material weaponry realm to which the acquisition cycle is obsolescently tied. Currently, funding, developing and fielding a new capability is a multi-year cycle.
At the heart of this storm is OCX, a new ground control system for GPS that is meant to be cyber-hardened.
“The dynamic nature of the cyber threat, the catastrophic implications to attacks on our GPS-related infrastructure, and the relatively slow acquisition cycle demands the Air Force follow through with added funding to OCX,” wrote Robert Newton, a retired Air Force acquisition officer, in Defense News.
“Consideration of scrapping such an important program may sound politically correct, but would be disastrous and place us years behind an already escalating threat,” Newton said.
In the longer term, Newton wrote, both the Pentagon and Congress must develop new methods and closer cooperation to quickly anticipate and counter threats before they fully materialize.
GPS OCX will be a key test of the government’s and the military’s joint sability to function.
LightSquared testing: The sequel
The U.S. Department of Transportation (DoT) announced in March that testing for the Adjacent Band Compatibility (ABC) Assessment will start in April. Conducted at the U.S. Army Research Laboratory, White Sands Missile Range, the tests seek to determine power limits for spectrum bands near the GPS L1 signal.
Later tests will focus on potential interference with the L5 signal and frequencies of other satellite navigation constellations.
In 2012, after tests at that time demonstrated that the proposed LightSquared network of ground-based transmitters would interfere with GPS, the Federal Communications Commission (FCC) denied LightSquared’s petition while authorizing further tests — never conducted until now.
Testing will take place across a 200-megahertz band spanning 1575.42 MHz, GPS L1. An interference tolerance mask is defined as the point at which the interference test signal power level causes a one-decibel degradation in the signal-to-noise ratio.
GPS and GNSS receivers designed for aviation (noncertified), cellular, general location/navigation, precision, timing, network-, and space-based application will be run through the high-powered gauntlet.
“The Department requests voluntary participation in this study by any interested GPS/GNSS device manufacturers or other parties whose products incorporate GPS/GNSS devices.” the DOT said.
Ligado, the renamed LightSquared company from 2012, came to separate legal settlements with GPS companies Garmin, Trimble and John Deere in 2015; the terms have not been disclosed.
“Use of a defined change in the noise floor (1 dB),” wrote a Deere attorney to the FCC, “provides a readily identifiable and predictable metric that all interested parties can take into account now and in the future.”
Lift-off of IRNSS-1F.(Photo: ISRO)
IRNSS nears completion
The sixth satellite in the Indian Regional Navigation Satellite System (IRNSS) launched on March 10, and all subsequent orbital steps proceeded according to plan. IRNSS-1F was injected to an elliptical orbit very close to its intended final orbit.
The Indian Space Research Organization’s (ISRO’s) Master Control Facility (MCF) at Hassan, Karnataka, took over the control of the satellite. Maneuvers will position the satellite in geostationary orbit at 32.5 degrees East longitude.
IRNSS-1F is the sixth of the seven satellites constituting the space segment of the Indian regional system. All five previosly launched satellites are functioning satisfactorily from their designated orbital positions.
A complete constellation of seven is planned for the second half of this year.
The first IRNSS position fix announced by ISRO, providing longitude, latitude and altitude, took place in April 2015. Since then, position fixes using stand-alone IRNSS receivers have obtained accuracies of better than 15 meters for a minimum of 18 hours in a day over India.
The regional SBAS broadcasts navigation signals in the L5 and S-band frequencies, and computes user position solutions for a restricted service and a standard positioning service.
GLONASS special K
A new-generation Russian GLONASS-K satellite began regular broadcasts on Feb. 15.
The K model line transmits five navigation signals in the GLONASS L1, L2, and L3 bands and carries a COSPAS-SARSAT payload for international search and rescue.
K satellites will gradually replace the GLONASS-M generation, bringing with them new CDMA civil signals compatible with GPS and Galileo.
Eleven new K satellites will take to space starting in 2018, using European and Chinese components as well as those being developed under an accelerated Russian import substitution program.
Col. Steve Whitney, director, Space and Missile Systems Center’s Global Positioning Systems Directorate.
By Col. Steve Whitney
The year 2015 was an exciting one to assume leadership of the Global Positioning Systems Directorate. I’ve witnessed the men and women of our team accomplish some amazing things, across all of our efforts to modernize the constellation, and would like to take a moment to share our progress over the past year and set the vision for 2016 as we remain dedicated to excellence.
The past year has been another outstanding one in terms of delivering capability on-orbit. We’ve continued the pace from last year, placing another three new satellites into space, most recently including the launch of our 11th GPS IIF satellite, built by Boeing. This launch marks the 18th satellite to broadcast the Military Code (M-code) and second civil signals (L2C). Each time the dedicated professionals from government and industry, representing many, many organizations, have come together to show the world the gold standard.
GPS III. In the development of our next generation of satellites, the GPS team continues to make progress. In September, we completed flight qualification of the navigation payload and its software — many of you recall that this area has been a challenge for us over the years, and I wanted to share this success. Additionally, the first GPS III satellite entered into thermal vacuum testing at prime contractor Lockheed Martin’s facility in Waterton, Colorado, in October.
Thermal vacuum testing, or TVAC, is one of the last major events in the assembly and integration flow of the satellite and will prove out the hard work of the team. This first GPS III satellite is scheduled to be available for launch by the end of 2016. Lastly, we aren’t losing focus on the rest of the development units, as the second GPS III space vehicle is over 95 percent delivered and integrated at the GPS III processing facility.
OCX. Over in the development of the ground segment, it’s no secret we’ve had very significant cost and schedule challenges in the development of the GPS next-generation system, OCX. Right now, we are engaging with both our industry partner, Raytheon, and the Department of Defense leadership to plot a way forward to deliver these much-needed capabilities. This effort is intended to improve both Positioning, Navigation, and Timing (PNT) capabilities and cyber-security posture in increasingly contested, congested and competitive space and cyber domains.
User Equipment. The third area of our modernization efforts is our work on user equipment. Our military user equipment division continued to make acquisition history by pursuing a commercially driven strategy with all three contractors: L-3 Interstate Electronics Corporation, Rockwell Collins and Raytheon Space and Airborne Systems. They started the year by taking prototype cards to field exercises such as RED FLAG and are currently in full developmental testing of the functioning receiver cards. 2015 was an exciting year, and I’m proud to say 2016 will be no different.
As we enter 2016, I’d like to reemphasize a challenge my predecessor Brig. Gen. Bill Cooley laid out in his 2015 Directions article, “What It Takes to Make a Gold Standard.” A challenge that GPS manufacturers worldwide innovate and build products that utilize modernized civil signals and the improved PNT capabilities brought by the Civil Navigation message. After all, in February 2016 we will launch the 19th satellite to broadcast M-code and L2C signals as well as the 12th satellite to broadcast the third civil signal, L5. With 19 satellites providing global coverage of L2C, it’s now up to industry to take advantage of these capabilities and pave the way towards modernized civil navigation.
New Capabilities. For the first time in history, civil users will have access to what has been available to military users since the inception of GPS, full use of dual-signal frequency accuracy. This, combined with other advances, translates into increased PNT accuracy and resiliency for users worldwide. It’s time for the civil community to develop receivers that take advantage of these capabilities and usher in an era of more robust civil navigation.
The February 2016 launch also marks the end of an era. It is the 12th and final GPS IIF satellite to launch, presenting a finale to one of the most aggressive launch campaigns in recent history: seven GPS IIF satellites in 21 months! This satellite is the last GPS satellite considered “second generation,” a generation that began operations in 1989.
In total, Generation II GPS launches will have spanned over 28 years comprised of 61 space vehicles amongst five different blocks: II, IIA, IIR, IIR-M and IIF. Over these years, characteristics such as User Range Error (URE) have continuously improved, hallmarking the success of the GPS developers and operators past and present. In fact, from 2001 to 2014, URE was nearly cut in half, going from an annual average of 1.6 meters to just 0.7 meters for the civil user. These improvements will continue as we launch the next-generation GPS III satellites.
In preparation for continued success into the future, 2016 will also be the year the GPS Directorate begins acquisition of GPS III space vehicles 11+. On July 3, 2015, the Office of the Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics approved the acquisition strategy for the GPS III space vehicles 11+ Production Readiness Feasibility Assessment to verify if capable GPS III production designs exist beyond the current GPS III contractor. The results of the GPS III Production Readiness Feasibility Assessment will shape and inform a GPS III space vehicles 11+ follow-on production acquisition strategy in the FY17 timeframe.
Service. Also in 2016, the GPS Directorate will reaffirm our commitment to excellence and providing unparalleled service and capability. Challenges remain ahead, but the GPS Directorate is dedicated to delivering a ground system necessary for command and control of both today and tomorrow’s GPS enterprise. This includes the GPS Directorate’s pursuit of aggressive and innovative strategies to meet interim and future needs such as increasing the resiliency of the current ground system and investigating means for launching GPS III satellites as soon as possible so they are ready for operation at full capability with the completion of a modernized ground segment.
Just this past year, we successfully accomplished several “hardening” efforts of the current ground system, adding to its robustness against the threats of today and tomorrow. Another endeavor we are working on is providing options to higher headquarters for the early use of M-code.
The modernized GPS user equipment (MGUE) program will continue to pursue an innovative and aggressive acquisition strategy in 2016. Next year will kick off integrating receiver cards into service nominated lead platforms, which include the Defense Advanced GPS Receiver Distributed Device or D3, Joint Light Tactical Vehicle, Arleigh Burke-class Destroyer’s navigation system, and the B-2 Spirit. These efforts culminate with operational testing and eventually allow services to procure receiver cards directly. Over the next 12 months, the GPS Directorate also plans to begin work on a modernized GPS handheld, ensuring airmen, marines, soldiers and sailors have access to portable, accurate, and resilient position, navigation and timing powered by M-code. As MGUE is integrated into a myriad of DoD systems over the coming years, our users will continue to have the assured PNT needed to win today and tomorrow’s fight.
Team. Finally, you can count on the professionals of GPS Directorate’s team to continue to exhibit acquisition excellence. It’s been six months since I assumed leadership of the GPS Directorate, and I am amazed every day with the passion and accomplishments of our people — which includes military, civilian, support contractors, federally funded research and development center partners and our industry partners. I feel privileged to work with each and every one of them on daily basis and look forward to what 2016 has in store for us all.
A final thanks to you, the GPS user. With over 4 billion users and an ever growing-economic impact, you motivate us to continue to improve and assure this vital mission.
Galileo satellites 9 and 10 are functioning perfectly, and the initial series of flight operations is continuing as part of the critical launch and early orbit phase, according to a European Space Agency Rocket Science blog by Daniel Scuka, senior editor for Spacecraft Operations at ESOC, ESA’s European Space Operations Centre, Darmstadt, Germany.
Galileo 9 and 10 lifted off together on Sept. 11 from Europe’s Spaceport in French Guiana atop a Soyuz launcher, bringing the total number of Galileo satellites in orbit to 10.
“The pair are being stepped through an intense series of check-outs, confirmations, mode changes, configurations and health verifications by the joint ESA/CNES mission team working around the clock at ESOC, Darmstadt, Germany,” according to the blog. “The team are now focusing on conducting a series of thruster burns designed to start the drift of the two satellites toward their target orbital positions.”
“Following the burns performed during the LEOP (launch and early orbit phase), the satellites will continue naturally drifting, ending up in their final desired operational orbits at about 23,222 km after another set of thruster burns, planned to achieve fine positioning in orbit, around the end of October,” said Liviu Stefanov, co-flight director from ESA.
With the excellent performance of the spacecraft and the ground teams, the LEOP is expected to wrap up soon.
All the Soyuz stages performed as planned during the September 11 launch, relieving anxieties tied to a faulty Soyuz launch in September of last year. The Fregat upper stage released the satellites into their target orbit close to 23,500 km altitude, around 3 hours and 48 minutes after liftoff.
“The deployment of Europe’s Galileo system is rapidly gathering pace,” said Jan Woerner, director general of the European Space Agency (ESA). “By steadily boosting the number of satellites in space, together with new stations on the ground across the world, Galileo will soon have a global reach. The day of Galileo’s full operational capability is approaching. It will be a great day for Europe.”
Two more Galileo satellites are scheduled for launch by end of this year. These satellites have completed testing at ESA’s ESTEC technical centre in Noordwijk, the Netherlands, with the next two satellites also undergoing their own test campaigns.
More Galileo satellites are being manufactured by OHB in Bremen, Germany, with navigation payloads coming from Surrey Satellite Technology Ltd in the UK, in turn utilizing elements sourced from all across Europe.
“Production of the satellites has attained a regular rhythm,” said Didier Faivre, ESA’s Director of Galileo and Navigation-related Activities. “At the same time, all Galileo testing performed up to now — including that of the ground segment — has been returning extremely positive results.
“And while the continuing deployment of Galileo remains our priority, along with exploitation of EGNOS — Europe’s already operational satellite navigation augmentation system — ESA is also looking farther ahead.
“With the European Commission, we are doing the technical work to ensure Galileo goes on forever — locking in continuity of Europe’s navigation services into the long term, to meet performance on a par with the other global satellite navigation systems.”
Next year Galileo deployment will be boosted by operation of a specially customized Ariane 5 launcher that can double, from two to four, the number of satellites that can be inserted into orbit with a single launch.
European SBAS Advances, Improves
After extensive ground and space testing, the SES-5 GEO satellite has entered into the European Geostationary Navigation Overlay Service (EGNOS) operational platform, broadcasting EGNOS Signal-In-Space (SIS). Replacing Inmarsat-4F2, SES-5 will ensure reliable EGNOS services until 2026, and will enable a range of performance improvements. In particular, EGNOS will offer even greater stability during periods of high ionospheric activity.
“SES-5 is the first step of the complete renewal of the EGNOS Space Segment, securing the EGNOS services for the next decade and the future transition to the dual-frequency multi-constellation services,” said Carlo des Dorides, European GNSS Agency executive director. “It will be completed by the introduction of the ASTRA-5B signals and the procurement of a new EGNOS payload which are both planned for 2016.”
SES-5, carrying EGNOS L1 and L5 band payloads, was launched in July 2012. The integration of a second EGNOS SBAS L1/L5 band payload on SES ASTRA-5B GEO satellite is currently ongoing. The introduction of the second SES GEO satellite for EGNOS is planned at the end of 2016.
GAO Report Spotlghts OCX Delays, Cost Increases
According to a report released by the U.S Government Accountability Office (GAO) on Sept. 9, titled “Actions Needed to Address Ground System Development Problems and User Equipment Production Readiness,” the Air Force has experienced significant difficulties developing the GPS next-generation operational control system (OCX). According to the report, completion of OCX will require $1.1 billion and four years more than planned to deliver OCX. The report Highlights section states, “The Air Force began OCX development in 2010,” and “accelerated OCX development in 2012 to meet optimistic GPS III satellite launch timeframes even as OCX development problems and costs grew, and then paused development in 2013 to address problems and resolve what it believed were root causes.
“However . . . OCX cost and schedule growth have persisted due in part to a high defect rate, which may result from systemic issues. Further, unrealistic cost and schedule estimates limit OSD visibility into and oversight over OCX progress. “ The full report may be read online.
During the course of development the Air Force made changes, updating the specifications for connections to other government systems and in the M-code signal requirements. Officials for Raytheon, the prime OCX contractor, estimated that, as a result of various modifications “nearly two-thirds of the requirements baseline as of [preliminary design review] had changed by mid-2012.” Subsequent software updates and modifications contributed to a high defect rate in the OCX software. “
If you have requirements change at the same time you’re developing the software, it’s more likely that you could have a higher amount of defects that you have to change after the fact,” said Matthew Gilligan, Raytheon’s vice president for navigation and environmental solutions.
On June 3, Raytheon demonstrated the advanced capabilities of the GPS Next Generation Operational Control System (GPS OCX) to key U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) and other stakeholders through a series of realistic operational demonstrations.
The demonstrations, which incorporated software that will be delivered with the Launch and Checkout System, validated how automation will improve system efficiency and effectiveness.
GPS OCX is the ground-based command and control system that will manage GPS satellites with significantly improved accuracy and precision, while providing unprecedented levels of cyber protection.
“These successful demonstrations incorporating actual GPS OCX software reflect Raytheon’s significant and continuing progress on this program and the growing maturity of this very complex system,” said Dave Wajsgras, president of Raytheon’s Intelligence, Information and Services. “Once delivered, this pathfinding, cyber-hardened ground system will significantly enhance the capabilities GPS brings to military, civil and commercial users worldwide,” said Wajsgras.
The demonstration provided DoD and other stakeholders with a look at how OCX will automate many tasks currently performed manually, resulting in reduced opportunities for error and increased operational tempo for delivering military and other applications, Raytheon said.
Raytheon demonstrated the benefits of OCX in providing new high-power, jam-resistant military signal known as M-code, as well as the system’s unprecedented cyber automation, detection and response capabilities.
Raytheon is installing the Block 0 Launch and Checkout System (LCS) hardware at Schriever Air Force Base. LCS software, which includes the cyber-hardened infrastructure for OCX Block 1, is in the qualification test phase and is on track for delivery in mid-2016.
As I write this, the 31st Space Symposium (SS) will kickoff in just 5 days, on April 13 at the incomparable Broadmoor Resort in Colorado Springs, Colo., at the foothills of the beautiful Rocky Mountains.
Neil deGrasse Tyson (courtesy of PBS)
If you haven’t figured it out already, the 31st SS is not a WWII German unit designation, but the 31st Space Symposium, which Dr. Neil deGrasse Tyson, famed astrophysicist, bestselling author, director of the Hayden Planetarium and host of the hugely successful television series Cosmos: A Spacetime Odyssey, simply calls “the most awesome symposium in the world.” Very high praise indeed, and a sentiment with which I totally agree.
Breaking Records
This year’s Space Symposium, which is sponsored by the Space Foundation, will be the largest ever held in terms of venue, size (number of exhibitors and speakers) and attendance. Approximately 10,000 space enthusiasts are expected to attend, and I hope you are one of them. My sources tell me the classified sessions (Cyber 1.5 and classified space sessions) are filled to overflowing — no new registrations allowed there. The exhibitor space at the Ball Aerospace Exhibit Center and Pavilion is bursting at the seams. The organizers are turning exhibitors away, so better luck next year. But if you just want to attend the greatest space symposium in the world, bar none, there is still time to register.
By the way, if you haven’t figured it out already, this is a truly international event. My sources at the Space Foundation stated that the 31st Space Symposium will have more international participation than ever, including more than 150 exhibits of the world’s latest space technology, products and services. The Ball Aerospace Exhibit Center will host more than 30 first-time exhibitors with more than a dozen countries represented, including: Austria, Canada, Denmark, France, Germany, Japan, New Zealand, Norway, Scotland, Sweden, Turkey, the UK and the U.S. The symposium is expected to attract space leaders from more than 25 countries, representing all sectors of the global space community.
Everyone who is anyone in the space world will probably be there or be represented. Consequently, the networking capabilities are unparalleled. Not to mention just being able to avail yourself of the world-famous Broadmoor Resort hospitality, plus the crisp, clean and cool mountain air at 6,000 feet.
Event Preparation
For many years, the event was known as the National Space Symposium. It outgrew that moniker many years ago, and is now simply known as the Space Symposium.
Every year before I attend the Space Symposium, I make a “ToDoToDay” list of topics I want to explore, both as a journalist and in my senior space analyst profession. Plus, of course, I make a list of people I definitely want to talk with or interview. This year, I thought I would share some of those to-dos with you, because you may indeed have some of the same interests.
GPS III
Mark Stewart, Lockheed Martin GPS III program manager (courtesy of Lockheed Martin)
Wearing my subject matter expert (SME) hat, so to speak, I recently had the honor of touring the Lockheed Martin (LMCO) Space Systems facility in Waterton Canyon (far West Denver), Colorado, where the GPS III satellites are built, integrated and otherwise readied for launch. I took the opportunity to chat with Mark Stewart and his crew. Mark is vice president for manufacturing and space systems and program manager for GPS III.
I learned that the first GPS III space vehicles (SVs) is much farther along than most everyone thinks. The problematic MDU (Mission Data Unit — the heart of the system) from Exelis has been fully tested and integrated into the payload. GPS III SV1 was only three days from being totally integrated or mated, as they say, with the on-orbit propulsion portion of the payload (the remainder of the LMCO A2100 bus) and beginning its months-long testing, certification and verification process. According to Mark, GPS III SV-01 — which powered on initially in February 2013 — now is in integration and test flow leading up to final delivery to the Air Force.
While it was thrilling to see everything finally coming together, I will also tell you candidly that the next milestone everyone is asking about, the first GPS III launch date, is probably as fluid as the Snake River in Spring. So, while I do not feel comfortable quoting a first launch date, and LMCO would not give me a firm date for delivery of the first GPS III SV, I do feel comfortable making this prediction: Barring any unforeseen major issues during testing, LMCO will be ready to deliver to the U.S. government the first ready-to-launch GPS III satellite by the end of this calendar year. That’s right, in my humble opinion the first GPS III SV will be ready to deliver to the Air Force by December 2015. When it will actually be launched is anybody’s guess; obviously, the sooner the better. Apropos of the Boeing IIF initial launches and critical on-orbit anomalies, the sooner the LMCO GPS III is put into orbit for full-scale operational and mission analysis tests the better.
LADO and OCX
The critical question of course is: Will the U.S. Air Force (USAF) have a ground control system that can successfully and reliably launch and support a full-up GPS III SV by the end of 2015? Certainly not if they stay the course with OCX, but there are alternatives, and you know who you are! Can you say LADO, Launch/Early Orbit, Anomaly Resolution, Disposal and Operations System?
Consider that LADO has been utilized to launch GPS satellites as far back as the GPS IIR-M family of satellites, also produced by LMCO, one of which was successfully launched on October 17, 2007, using the then-new LADO system. That milestone ensured the GPS program continued to provide superior space-based navigation for billions of users, military, civilian and commercial, around the globe using industry-leading highly modified (Aces Premier) commercial launch technology. This significant achievement was the culmination of outstanding teamwork between the USAF, Braxton Technologies, the engineering firm and the prime contractor.
The LADO system formed and is still the backbone of the new GPS Command and Control (C2) functionality implemented by the prime contractor. It known today as the Advanced Architecture Evolution Plan (AEP). Subsequently, LADO is now the primary launch system for all current and future (IIR-M, IIF and possibly GPS III) satellites, which should allow the U.S. Air Force to retire some outdated legacy GPS ground support and command and control systems.
The first successful 2007 LADO launch and control of an operational GPS IIR-M satellite, and the 1SOPS and 2SOPS operators’ acceptance of the GPS LADO system, was proof that commercial software can be deployed effectively even in a militarily critical mission system, saving the government both cost and schedule without sacrificing mission-unique capabilities.
In my humble opinion, that is where we need to go today. Let’s return to the tried-and-true LADO and prime contractor partnership and launch the first GPS III SV by the end of this year, or certainly by early 2016. Please notice I have not made any statements concerning scrapping the hugely expensive, 100-percent-over-budget-and-schedule (years behind) OCX program of record. Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics (USDATL) Frank Kendall recently announced the controversial decision that OCX as the program of record would go forward under strict scrutiny with definite milestones that must be met. Scrutiny is a fickle mistress, and historically on the OCX program, milestones are there to be missed. Meanwhile, the USAF requires a tried, proven and utterly reliable capability to launch GPS III SVs as soon as the first few become available. The USAF must place several GPS IIIs on orbit for a full checkout to ensure there are no major anomalies. Currently, LADO had an eight-year proven track record with no failures, and it remains the only program that can initiate, control and dispose of residual GPS satellites — including the IIAs, which are the longest lived GPS satellites on orbit today.
Beware, there will be many naysayers in government circles, and you may meet some of them at the symposium, that will tell you it is just not possible. But just stop by and talk candidly with LMCO Space Systems and Braxton Technologies personnel, and see what they have to say. You may be surprised by what you hear.
Then stop by the Raytheon booth and check on the status of OCX.
Lynn Dugle (courtesy of Raytheon)
Female Executives in the News
Speaking of OCX and Raytheon, Lynn Dugle retired from Raytheon on March 2, 2015. Historically, Lynn has been a very capable executive. She is the former president of Raytheon’s Intelligence, Information and Services (IIS) business, which handles several key U.S. Air Force space contracts, including OCX, the current program of record for the next-generation ground system for GPS III. Dugle served as president of the division beginning in 2009.
David Wajsgras (your guess is as good as mine), Raytheon’s former senior vice president (SVP) and chief financial officer (CFO), has replaced Dugle. Wajsgras served as SVP and CFO of Raytheon Company from March 2006 to March 2015.
David Wajsgras (courtesy of Raytheon)
As a member of Raytheon’s senior leadership team, he directed Raytheon’s overall financial strategy. In my humble opinion, he has his work cut out for him. He will need all of his financial expertise and acumen to make OCX a success — financially and, hopefully, operationally. The program is grossly over budget, several years behind schedule, and reportedly, my sources tell me, far less capable than originally planned. Good luck, David.
As long as we are still speaking primarily of female executives with great track records, USAF Lieutenant General Ellen Pawlikowski, who I have had the honor of knowing and working with for the past 25 years, was recently nominated for her fourth star. General Pawlikowski successfully commanded the SMC (Space and Missile Systems Center) and served as Program Executive Officer (PEO) for Space for three years at Los Angeles Air Force Base in California. Among her many successful space acquisition programs, she was responsible for GPS procurement during her tenure.
Lt. Gen. Ellen Pawlikowski, USAF (courtesy of the USAF)
Currently, General Pawlikowski serves on the East Coast in the Pentagon as the military deputy to William LaPlante, Ph.D., the assistant secretary of the Air Force for acquisition. In other words, LaPlante is the Air Force’s Service Acquisition Executive, responsible for all Air Force research, development and acquisition activities. Previously, just to add to her mystique, General Pawlikowski spent more than one tour at the super secret National Reconnaissance Office.
When confirmed, General Pawlikowski will be only the third female four-star general in U.S. Air Force history. A well-deserved honor and one that certainly merits acknowledgement. General Pawlikowski is scheduled to speak several times at the Space Symposium, so when you see her, congratulate her on a job well done and on being nominated for her fourth star, and wish her luck in her new assignment as the head (four-star commander) of Air Force Materiel Command.
Before we leave the female leader category, my sources tell me that USAF Colonel DeAnna Burt, commander of the 2nd Space Operations Squadron (2 SOPS, the GPS squadron) from 2008 to 2010, will in June 2015 become only the third female commander of the 50th Space Wing at Schriever AFB, Colorado — home to 2 SOPS. She follows in the very capable footsteps of then-Colonel Suzanne (Zan) Vautrinot, who was the first female wing commander at the50th Space Wing followed by then-Colonel Teresa (Terry) Djuric. Note that both Suzanne and Terry, who are now retired from active duty, went on to become general officers in the USAF.
Commander AFSPC – Gen. John Hyten (courtesy of the USAF)
Currently, Colonel Burt serves as director of the Air Force Space Command (AFSPC) Commander’s Action Group for General John Hyten. General Hyten, the current commander of AFSPC, is himself a former 50th Space Wing commander, and he will also be speaking several times at the space symposium. Here’s a big hint: As a four-star general, General Hyten has morphed into quite a forceful, informative, entertaining and engaging speaker. You won’t want to miss any of his presentations.
If you see Colonel Burt at the Space Symposium, please congratulate her on her new assignment, and you might offer her your prayers for the incredible amount of responsibility she is about to assume. I’m betting she can handle it.
GPS Directorate
Another USAF general officer you are sure to run into at the Space Symposium is a newly minted brigadier general known by some as Wild Bill Cooley. General Cooley, who is currently the director of the GPS Directorate at SMC, was pinned on just a few weeks ago and will be speaking several times at the symposium. Wild Bill also deserves your congratulations. By all accounts, he is doing a great job and has more stars in his future.
The Place to Be
So, while there are several points to be made, a key one appears to be that if you are heavily involved with the GPS program inside and outside the USAF and you do a good job, it can work wonders for your career. If you want to hear from those who have been successful, the 31st Space Symposium is the place to be.
I hope to see you at the Broadmoor April 13-16. Come early and wear your walking shoes. Please stop by the GPS World booth and say hello to everyone. I will be there for sure.
As I wind up this to-do list, I will tell you about another Space Symposium event where it is important, even critical, to be seen. Everyone who is anyone will be attending the Connecting Colorado private function on Wednesday evening, April 15. The event is hosted by the Braxton Science and Technology Group; this is the third year for the coveted event. As I have stated before, I have attended 26 of the 31 Space Symposiums, and I have never been to an after-hours function during that time that even approaches the quality and class that Connecting Colorado exudes. It is a first-class event in a visually stunning venue, where private access passes are required to enter and guards are serious about keeping out gatecrashers. If history is any guide, it promises to be an amazing evening of fine wines, sumptuous food, quality cigars, roaring fireplaces and professional camaraderie that can’t be beat. Plus, the networking opportunities are endless. In other words, the Connecting Colorado event is what all the other after-hours Space Symposium events long to be or wish they could emulate. I can’t wait. I hope to see you there, and at the 31st Space Symposium. By the way, April in the Rocky Mountains means dress appropriately — warmly works for me.
Until next time, Happy Navigating, and remember: GPS is brought to you courtesy of the United States Air Force.
In the 2016 President’s Budget, submitted in February, the U.S. Air Force requested a budget of $122.2 billion. That exceeds the Office of Management and Budget’s recommendation by almost $10 billion. I applaud the Air Force action and think it may be too little, too late.
On the satellite or hardware side of the house, GPS III has problems centering on development and delivery issues with a subcontractor. In this case, however, the whole satellite program is not failing; just a component, albeit an important one: the Mission Data Unit or MDU.
For GPS III+, the Air Force plans for a two-phased competition process: a Production Readiness competition for up to three firm-fixed price contracts to mature competitors’ production designs for a competition in a full and open competition for up to 22 GPS III Production SVs [satellite vehicles] with an expected award in FY17/18.
This sounds great if you need an entirely new GPS III system, which consists of, at a minimum, a new payload, satellite, launcher and ground C2 system. OCX is only designed to work with current and planned GPS SVs, and it doesn’t even do that today. In fact, the government only needs an MDU, a critical part of the payload. Failure to produce the MDU on time has delayed GPS III by 18 months to date.
More troubling to me are the phrases from the government plan that essentially mean “We are going to pay competitors to mature their technology so they can compete against the current prime (LMCO), who is building the first 10 GPS III satellites.” The government is saying the competitors on their own cannot compete against LMCO so we, the government, are going to give them contracts and lots of money to help them get to a point where they can compete, and then we are going to have a recompetition.
This will to take at least three years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and LMCO may well win again in the end, but at least we will have conducted a competition. Does this make sense?
Will the U.S. Air Force initiate a competition to acquire an entirely new GPS III SV, or fix the problem with the current GPS III program, the MDU? It appears the Air Force is looking to pursue an entirely new GPS III system to include SVs.
A significant added cost to the GPS budget concerns the need for a new ground C2 system if the total new systems approach is taken. If preliminary elements of the GPS space segment are developed without cross-checking the impact to the GPS control segment, technical, operational, budgetary and schedule impacts will be significant.
The already troubled next-generation GPS ground control system, OCX, budget likely has not considered the integration costs of a newly developed, yet-to-be-procured GPS III+ SV. OCX today is geared for the GPS III already contracted for, and it is failing to meet that challenge in a spectacular and expensive way. It is possible, even probable, that OCX integration costs for yet another new model of GPS III family of satellites would increase the OCX budget significantly — unless one assumes that the Air Force acquires a perfectly matched new satellite that integrates seamlessly with OCX.What are the chances of that, and why would you spend hundreds of millions of scarce acquisition dollars to procure an exact and more expensive replica?
Budget constraints are tight and getting tighter, mandating the Air Force “do more with less” in every context. For GPS III SVs, this means developing an alternate MDU rather than buying a new block of GPS SVs.
The Lockheed Martin GPS III Non-Flight Satellite Testbed (GNST).
A Lockheed Martin vice president has stated that the first GPS III satellite will likely launch in 2017, not 2016 as had been projected in the most recent update.
The company is readying the first satellite for launch availability by the end of 2015, for launch as early as the end of this year, but Space News reports that Mark Valerio, vice president and general manager of Lockheed Martin’s military space business, stated in a Feb. 18 news briefing that he expects the Air Force will schedule its launch for early 2017.
The GPS III generation of modernized satellites — with new signals, added signal strength, and resistance to interference and jamming — was originally projected to begin orbiting in 2014. Technical difficulties have delayed the program. The principal issues, those with the payload, have now been resolved, according to Valerio.
Valerio expects a firmer GPS III launch announcement for 2017 in March. He expected the final launch date “will depend on the health of the existing constellation, the availability of launch slots and synchronization with the ground system.” Ultimately, the Air Force always makes the final decision on the launch date.
Lockheed Martin is contracted to build eight GPS III satellites.
Late last year, a spokesman for the Space and Missile Systems Center said that “The first GPS III launch is tentatively considered for the first half of FY17, based on booster availability and Air Force launch priorities.”
The Air Force has put out feelers for other contractors to finish out the full generation of GPS III satellites. Lockheed Martin is building eight, with an option for four more, totalling 12; a complete constellation of III-generation satellites would require 24. Boeing Space and Intelligence Systems and Northrop Grumman Aerospace are reportedly interested.
“The best thing I can do is keep marching along the plan we have,” Valerio said. “We’re certainly not afraid of the competition.” Lockheed Martin has submitted cost-cutting proposals for the current GPS III satellite design, he added.
Ground Control
The corresponding new ground system for GPS III, the Operational Control Segment (OCX), has also fallen behind schedule. Just this month, the Air Force announced that Lockheed Martin may develop an interim control capability, a set of changes implemented upon the current control segment, the Architecture Evolution Plan (AEP), as a backup.
Michael Gilmore, the Defense Department’s director of operational test and evaluation, recently stated that OCX delays have pushed back GPS III operational testing “until after at least six, and as many as eight,” satellites have been launched into orbit. “This introduces significant risk that effectiveness and suitability deficiencies in GPS III satellites will not be discovered until it is too late to prevent their introduction to the operational constellation.”
Budget Blues
Don Jewell, GPS World’s contributing editor for defense, has written at length about the GPS III and OCX situations in his February newsletter column, “USAF FY16 Budget Plus $10B More, Please!”. We condensed some of his remarks, particular to the budget battle on Capitol Hill, for the Out in Front column of the March issue of the magazine, due out soon. Here is a further digest of those comments.
The 2016 President’s Budget, submitted in February, contains an Air Force requested a budget of $122.2 billion. This may be too little, too late.
On the satellite side of the house, GPS III has problems centering on development and delivery issues with a subcontractor. In this case, however, the whole satellite program is not failing, just a component, albeit an important one: the Mission Data Unit (MDU).
For GPS III+, the Air Force plans for a two-phased competition process: a Production Readiness competition for up to three firm-fixed price contracts to mature competitors’ production designs for a competition in a full and open competition for up to 22 GPS III Production SVs [satellite vehicles] with an expected award in FY17/18.
This sounds great if you need an entirely new GPS III system, which consists of, at a minimum, a new payload, satellite, launcher and ground C2 system. In fact, the government only needs an MDU. Failure to produce the MDU on time has delayed GPS III by 18 months to date.
More troubling are the government proposals to entertain other bids to finish the second half of the GPS III constellation. Such a competition or re-bid will take at least three years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars — and Lockheed Martin may well win again in the end
A significant added cost to the GPS budget concerns the need for a new ground C2 system if the total new systems approach is taken. If preliminary elements of the GPS space segment are developed without cross-checking the impact to the GPS control segment, technical, operational, budgetary and schedule impacts will be significant.
The already perturbed OCX budget likely has not considered the integration costs of a newly developed, yet-to-be-procured GPS III+ SV. OCX today is geared for the GPS III already contracted for, and it is failing to meet that challenge.
Budget constraints are tight and getting tighter, mandating the Air Force “do more with less” in every context. For GPS III SVs, this should — but by no means necessarily does — indicate developing an alternate MDU rather than buying a new block of GPS SVs.
The long-anticipated 2016 President’s Budget (PB) was submitted to Congress in early February. The PB is the spark that ignites the lengthy and often contentious congressional budget process, including: adopting a budget resolution framework, developing numerous discretionary spending bills, reconciling legislation between the House and Senate, approving continuing resolution stop-gap measures and finally, hopefully, appropriating funds for various programs — including the Global Positioning System (GPS) as part of the Department of Defense’s (DoD’s) U.S. Air Force (USAF) budget request.
For FY (Fiscal Year 1 Oct – 30 Sep) 2016, the U.S. Air Force requested a topline budget of $122.2 billion in Air Force controlled funding that exceeds funding levels recommended by the OMB (Office of Management and Budget) and laid out in the Budget Control Act by almost $10 billion. Several well-meaning friends still in high places in the government immediately sent me copies of the USAF budget while it was still warm, so to speak, and thought that I would be “properly incensed” — proffered one old friend — over the so-called $10B overdraft. I hate to disappoint my friends, but in the spirit of the USAF policy of putting the Bottom Line Up Front, I applaud the Air Force action and personally think it may be too little, too late. The supplemental request or overdraft should probably have been more on the order of $20B, not $10B.
Hollow Force
This is not an emotional reaction, but a reasoned statement by a seasoned veteran airman of 30 years in the USAF, yours truly, who served through at least two periods of a “hollow force” that were devastating not only to the USAF as an institution, but to the DoD as a whole and to all the personnel who served during these austere and dangerous times. And, yes, I am equating a hollow force with a dangerous force. Indeed, the term “hollow force” officially refers to military and government forces that certainly, on the surface, appear to be “mission ready,” but upon close examination suffer from moderate to severe shortages of personnel and equipment as well as deficiencies, to varying degrees, in training.
Gen Mark A Welsh III, Chief of Staff, USAF, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee 201 (Photo courtesy of USAF – SSG Sean K. Harp).
In recent testimony before the Senate Armed Services Committee, along with his fellow service chiefs, General Mark A. Welsh III, chief of staff of the United States Air Force, laid out the dangers inherent in the hollow force when he stated:
“Last year, our readiness levels reached an all-time low. As we struggle to recover, we don’t have enough units ready to respond immediately to a major contingency, and we’re not always able to provide fully mission-ready units to meet our combatant commanders’ routine rotational requirements.
“The Air Force’s modernization forecasts also are bleak. About 20 percent of [our] aircraft flying today were built in the 1950s and 1960s, and more than half of the rest are 25 years old or older.
“And now, due to sequestration, we’ve cut about 50 percent of our currently planned modernization programs.”
To someone who lived through the hollow force in the past, this is a scary description and prospect for our airmen. In describing the results of budget cuts and difficult decisions regarding program terminations that result in a hollow force, General Welsh put it this way:
“Without these tough calls, the Air Force ‘will be neither ready to fight today, nor viable against the threats of tomorrow’.”
Indeed, a hollow force puts every ones lives in danger. During the post-Vietnam hollow force created by the peanut farmer, there were times when there were B52 aircraft sitting alert just for the spy satellite photo ops that did not have engines in the nacelles nor certified crews to fly them. Aircrews were lucky if they were able to fly four hours per month, and believe me, that made us all less than proficient. I remember one incident specifically. My oxygen (O2) mask had failed on a previous flight and I needed a new one. In the high-performance aircraft in which we flew, regulations required an O2 mask be attached to our helmet and actually in place with crewmembers in the cockpit breathing pure (100%) O2 above a certain altitude. Because of budget cuts, I was issued a waiver, a piece of paper that said I was legal to fly without a fully functioning O2 mask. Fortunately I never was forced to fly without a fully functioning O2 mask, but what if I had been? What if I had passed out from O2 deprivation? What about the other members of the crew? What purpose did the piece of paper serve, other than mollifying a paper pusher’s conscience? Would the Air Force crash investigators have found it in the wreckage and said, “Oh, it’s OK, he had a waiver!” These are the types of things that can happen with a “hollow force.” We don’t need to go there again, and if nothing else, the extra $10B may be just the ticket to keep the aircrews proficient and equipment maintained.
The Color of Money
I know that budgeting and spending other people’s money seems like a simple issue, but with the government, nothing is ever simple. Consequently, the DoD has established an entire university system, known as the Defense Acquisition University (DAU), to train acquisition, program and financial officials in handling government acquisition funds, along with other procurement activities. Under the Budget Control Act guidelines and the Congressional cost-cutting exercise known as Seques-castration, 2016 is another cost-cutting year. That is significant when you understand that the USAF and all of DoD are still reeling from more than ten years of war, on more than one front, along with previously mandated significant budget and manpower cuts that seriously impacted the ability of the USAF to accomplish its multitude of missions.
Consider that budget cuts have a lingering, insidious and costly effect in equipment not maintained or replaced, training not accomplished, R&D not conducted, new technologies not developed, and inevitably the inability to accomplish the mission. A lot of the complexity in these budget-cutting moves relates to what the government refers to as the color of money. For example budgetary funds are appropriated and obligated for the USAF, and most other services, according to the following formula:
O&M – Operations and Maintenance – Obligated for 1 year
MILPERS – Military Personnel – Obligated for 1 year
RDT&E – Res Dev Test & Eval – Obligated for 2 years
PROC – Procurement – Obligated for 3 years
MILCON – Military Construction – Obligated for 5 years
As you can see, all funds are not obligated for just one year and then the money expires. Indeed, there are several colors of money, and failing to fund an RDT&E effort can have catastrophic results on the future of that program and associated programs that might benefit from the technology not developed. At any one time, the USAF is juggling budgets stretching across years and programs and moving money or robbing Peter to pay Paul.
FM (Financial Management) or financial and program management gurus at any one time are managing funds that originated as many as five years previously, plus the current year’s budget, while planning on how to use funds that might carry over to next year. They have just submitted the FY16 budget, which also means they are now hard at work on the FY17 budget without knowing what will be obligated for FY16. Across all those budget years, they have to deal with the arcane rules concerning the color of money. Yes, they are professionals (I’ve been married to one of the best for 35+ years), and they do a great job, but face it — sometimes they are just taking a well-educated guess and hoping for supplemental funding just to meet basic requirements.
Seriously, FM’ers live for the fairytale that one day a combatant commander will say, “Hey, your mission is more important than mine, so I will ‘MIPR’ (a one-time financial move) my funding to your budget line for your project.” Let’s see — a pig is not aerodynamically designed to fly…
Space
Funding for all space programs is especially critical, as the entire space arena is known as a force multiplier, in that satellites and space platforms provide and enable capabilities that increase the effectiveness and reach of all military and government personnel. Therefore, when space programs are not funded, delayed or are cut, the impact ripples across the entire DOD. This is especially true of GPS and PNT (Position, Navigation and Timing) systems which have become so ubiquitous, they are considered a must-have utility for billions of users around the globe, not just the U.S. government. In fact, military and government users may be the smallest segment of users for GPS and PNT services today, which is ironic when you consider that, as General John Hyten (USAF), commander of Air Force Space Command, loves to remind us, “GPS is provided to the world, and over three billion plus users, free of charge 24/7, by the United States Air Force.”
OCX – Next-Generation Space Control Segment
Unfortunately, a couple of major GPS-related programs are in trouble. For OCX, the Next-Generation Control Segment for GPS, my sources tell me, and 2016 budget documents clearly show, that current costs attributable to the prime contractor greatly exceed the contract award specification of ~$886M by a factor of 100% ,with a delivery date still far out on the horizon — somewhere around 2020 with a total program costs of $3.6B. That’s the bad news; the good news is there are definitely sound alternatives, and my sources tell me they are being belatedly explored.
Sometimes the behemoth primes are just that: too big and too expensive. Oftentimes the real subject matter experts (SMEs) reside in the smaller, boutique, more agile companies that can do the job in 24 months for $200M, which is a price that was quoted to me recently by a company with skin in the game, since their software products are responsible for launching and controlling all of the GPS satellites launched in the last eight years without a single failure. Plus, sources inside the company tell me that they have already developed a complete launch and initial checkout system for GPS III, which the OCX prime contractor is still struggling to construct.
This is where the USAF and OSD must step back and assess the OCX program for all its merits versus costs. GPS is not that complicated a satellite system, and yet we are on course to spend $3.6B for a ground C2 (Command and Control) system that will still have significant shortcomings. If it were the perfect C2 system in the end, that would be one consideration, but in fact, as the prime has admitted, it will be far from what was initially envisioned, and the total program costs will have grown by almost 400%.
This scenario begs the question: As the GPS acquisition authority, which product would you trust, a known product derived from a proven government and commercial satellite launch and C2 capability in operation today from a reliable company that has a flawless track record of GPS launches for the last eight years? Or a brand-new unproven product costing billions of dollars from a company that is clearly struggling technically and financially and has, at the end of the day, never launched or controlled a single GPS satellite? The answer seems clear to me. Obviously, there are valid alternatives, and in this budget environment the USAF needs to take a look at replacements, alternatives, supplements and backups, however you choose to phrase it, to OCX.
As we were going to press, we learned that Mr. Kendall has given the OCX Program a green light, but with several caveats indicating the program will be closely watched in the future. Mr. Kendall confirmed that while the OCX costs had indeed doubled, he was going to stay the course for now.
Major General Roger Teague, director of space programs for the Air Force acquisition chief, said a review by chief arms buyer Frank Kendall went well, but program officials and the contractor got “tough marching orders” to stick to schedule and cost targets. That is well and good, but history shows us that it has never happened in the past with the OCX program, and so some tough changes are going to have to be made if they are going to stay on track. We wish them well.
GPS III – Next Generation Space Segment
On the satellite or hardware side of the house, the GPS III — or next-generation GPS satellite — is also having problems, but in this case it centers on development and delivery issues with a subcontractor having serious technical issues and who has failed to deliver on cost or schedule. That subcontractor was just last week bought by a bigger prime, so we will have to wait and see what happens. In this case, however, the whole satellite program is not failing just a component, albeit an important one, the Mission Data Unit or MDU. Although again the answer seems simple, there are bigger forces at play, and one of them is wrapped up in a new government initiative known as Better Buying Power 3.0.
Better Buying Power 3.0
The current GPS III+ budget input states: “In an effort to implement Better Buying Power 3.0 (BBP 3.0) to control production costs, the [U.S.] Air Force intends to create a competitive environment. Options for the GPS III competition continue to be explored by USD (AT&L) [Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics], Mr. Frank Kendall.
Frank Kendall, under secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics; the Under Secretary flag.
The Under Secretary of Defense for Acquisition, Technology and Logistics, or USD (AT&L), is a senior civilian official in the Office of the Secretary of Defense within the Department of Defense. USD (AT&L) is the principal staff assistant and advisor to the Secretary of Defense and the Deputy Secretary of Defense for all matters concerning departmental acquisitions and the general management of the department as a whole, which means he is a significant decision-maker where DoD acquisitions are concerned, and he has something to say about the plans for those acquisitions. Obviously, those plans need to make sense, financially, operationally and hopefully logically. Mr. Kendall, who has been in his current position for almost four years, has brought a much needed common-sense approach to government acquisition, and we can only hope he continues to make judicious, practical and logical decisions.
For GPS III+, the U.S. Air Force’s published notional plan is for a two-phased competition process. Phase one is a Production Readiness competition for up to three firm-fixed price contracts to mature competitors’ production designs for a competition in Phase two. Phase two will be a full and open competition for up to 22 GPS III Production SVs [satellite vehicles] with an expected award in FY17/18. The [U.S.] Air Force GPS Directorate received USD (AT&L) approval to purchase GPS III SV09-10 from the incumbent Lockheed Martin (LMCO) at the December 2014 Defense Acquisition Board (DAB), in order to sustain the GPS constellation while competitive options are pursued.” [Bold added for emphasis.] See the budget document here.
The “government speak” sounds great if you need an entirely new GPS III system, which consists of, at a minimum, a new payload, satellite, launcher and ground C2 system (remember OCX is only designed to work with current and planned GPS SVs, and it doesn’t even do that today). But, in fact, the U.S. government only needs an MDU, which is a critical part of the payload. Indeed, failure to produce the MDU on time has delayed the entire GPS III program by about 18 months to date.
Even more troubling to me is the seemingly innocuous phrases from the government plan that states “create a competitive environment…firm-fixed price contracts to mature [up to three] competitors’ production designs,” which is nothing more than government speak for “We are going to pay competitors to mature their technology so they can compete against the current prime (LMCO), who is currently building the first 10 GPS III satellites.” In effect, the government is saying the competitors on their own cannot compete against LMCO so we, the government, are going to give them contracts and lots of money to help them get to a point where they can compete, and then we are going to have a recompetition. Of course, this is going to take at least three years and cost hundreds of millions of dollars, and LMCO may well win again in the end, but at least we will have conducted a competition. Does this approach make sense? Does it pass the financial, operational, and logic tests? Does it pass the Washington Post test? I guess we will have to wait and see if Frank Kendall agrees.
BBP 3.0
So, what exactly is the initiative known as Better Buying Power 3.0? It’s DoD’s mandate to “do more with less”:
“DoD’s Mandate To Do More Without More
“Better Buying Power (BBP) is the implementation of best practices to hopefully strengthen the Defense Department’s buying power, improve industry productivity, and provide an affordable, value-added military capability for the warfighter and government user. Launched in 2010, BBP encompasses a set of fundamental acquisition principles to achieve greater efficiencies through affordability, cost control, elimination of unproductive processes and bureaucracy, and promotion of competition. BBP initiatives also incentivize productivity and innovation in industry and Government, and improve tradecraft in the acquisition of services.”
Sounds great, doesn’t it? Now for the rest of the story.
We can all agree that defense budgets are tight, so it will be interesting to see how BBP 3.0 plays out in the arena for GPS SVs. Will the U.S. Air Force initiate a competition to acquire an entirely new GPS III SV, or fix the problem with the current GPS III program, the MDU? Recall my previous column concerning the GPS III Sources Sought, in which the GPS III MDU was compared to an aircraft engine and the GPS III satellite was compared to an aircraft. In this analogy, the Air Force didn’t ask for companies/competitors to produce a new aircraft just because it needed an alternate engine. It simply contracted for another engine supplier — the most cost-effective competition that adheres to the principles of BBP 3.0. However, from the GPS Directorate budget language quoted earlier, it appears as if the Air Force is looking to pursue an entirely new GPS III system to include SVs, rather than just procure an alternate MDU.
In my humble opinion, stringently applying BBP 3.0 to GPS III issues means simply to employ competition at the correct level (i.e., for the engine rather than the entire aircraft). An interesting feature and significant added cost to the GPS budget, which I briefly mentioned earlier, concerns the need for a new ground C2 system if the total new systems approach is taken. For, indeed, if preliminary elements of the GPS space segment are developed without cross-checking the impact to the GPS control segment, the technical, operational, budgetary and schedule impacts will be significant. For example, the already troubled next-generation GPS ground control system, OCX, budget likely has not considered the integration costs of a newly developed, yet-to-be-procured “production ready” GPS III+ SV. Indeed, OCX today is geared for the GPS III already contracted for and it is failing to meet that challenge in a spectacular and expensive way. So it is possible, even probable, that OCX integration costs for yet another new model of GPS III family of satellites would increase the OCX budget significantly…unless of course one assumes that the U.S. Air Force acquires a perfectly matched, new GPS III satellite that integrates seamlessly with OCX. In other words, an entirely new GPS III SV would need to be perfectly matched to the current GPS III SV — and what are the chances of that, and why would you spend hundreds of millions of scarce acquisition dollars to procure an exact and more expensive replica?
Budget constraints are tight and getting tighter. BBP 3.0 mandates the Air Force “do more with less” in every context. For GPS III SVs, this means developing an alternate MDU rather than buying a new block of GPS SVs.
Until next time, Happy Navigating, and remember: GPS is brought to you free of charge by the United States Air Force.
The ground control system (OCX) that Raytheon is developing for the next-generation GPS program has passed a Pentagon review, reports Reuters. The program will be monitored to ensure it stays on track, a senior Air Force official said on Feb. 6 as reported by the news service.
Major General Roger Teague, director of space programs for the Air Force acquisition chief, said a review by chief arms buyer Frank Kendall went well, but program officials and the contractor got “tough marching orders” to stick to schedule and cost targets.
Raytheon’s program manager Matt Gilligan said the review provided the company with “clear direction, the best technology, and appropriate resources to…deliver OCX on a schedule that meets GPS enterprise needs.”
Kendall had ordered the review after an Air Force restructuring that increased the cost of the program by 80 percent to $1.6 billion.
Milena, or Galileo-FOC FM2, moves above the dangerous Van Allen Belt to rejoin Doresa, Galileo-FOC FM1, in a partially usable orbit. Photo: Galileo
By Tim Reynolds, GPS World European correspondent
Director General Jean-Jacques Dordain of the European Space Agency (ESA) announced Jan. 16 that the second errant full-operational capability (FOC) satellite, launched in August, had started its orbital change maneuver the previous day. He anticipated that the orbital change would be completed and the final orbit — “albeit somewhat lower in height than the one into which it was supposed to go” — achieved in “a few weeks.” He confirmed that both in-orbit FOCs work well, are fully operational, and provide excellent on-spec positioning data.
Two more FOC satellites are ready for launch, and a third has undergone thermal vacuum testing. Dordain said four will be available to launch soon, and he anticipated up to six FOCs being ready for launch in 2015 [word came at press time that all 2015 launches would be aboard the previously problematic Soyuz vehicle, and not on heretofore reliable Ariane]. The previous plan had called for four in 2015, but the total now includes two that were held back from a December 2014 launch. The actual schedule and launch vehicles are still under discussion, according to Dordain; the European Commission (EC) will make a decision at the end of January on this. He refused to comment on what ESA would recommend to EC on this front.
Read Tim Reynolds’ Brussels-based reporting the in EAGER quarterly enewsletter; free at gpsworld.com/subscribe.
The completion is a key milestone towards end-to-end capability to automatically transfer data between Raytheon’s OCX and Lockheed’s GPS III satellite. One more readiness exercise, five launch rehearsals, and a mission dress rehearsal are planned before launch of the first GPS III with OCX.
The exercise demonstrated mission planning and scheduling capabilities with the simulated Air Force Satellite Control Network (AFSCN) for the first time, including a replan scenario that would occur in the event of a launch slip.
The system also automatically generated antenna pointing angles for the simulated AFSCN — until now, manually generated. Exercise 4 introduced maneuver planning and reconstruction capabilities, as well as advanced planning and scheduling with AFSCN assets. Automation of these capabilities will allow GPS operators to optimize system performance rather than focus on routine operations.
Brigadier General Cooley
Colonel William Cooley, director of the GPS Directorate, has been nominated to the rank of brigadier general, United States Air Force. He wrote a December GPS World article on “What It Takes to Make a Gold Standard.”
Artist’s rendering of GPS III satellite (courtesy of Lockheed Martin).
Raytheon Company and Lockheed Martin successfully completed the fourth of five planned launch and early orbit exercises to demonstrate new automation capabilities, information assurance and launch readiness of the U.S. Air Force’s next-generation GPS III satellite and Operational Control System (OCX).
Successful completion of Exercise 4, on Oct. 3, represents a key milestone demonstrating the end-to-end capability to automatically transfer data between Raytheon’s OCX and Lockheed Martin’s GPS III satellite. One additional readiness exercise, five launch rehearsals and a mission dress rehearsal are planned prior to launch of the first GPS III satellite with OCX.
The exercise used the latest baseline of Raytheon’s OCX Launch Checkout System (LCS) software featuring integrated information assurance functionality for the first time and the latest version of Lockheed Martin’s GPS III satellite simulator. Exercise 4 successfully demonstrated mission planning and scheduling capabilities with the simulated Air Force Satellite Control Network (AFSCN) for the first time, including a replan scenario that would occur in the event of a launch slip.
The system also automatically generated antenna pointing angles for the simulated AFSCN, which until now have been manually generated. Exercise 4 expands on three previous exercises, introducing maneuver planning and reconstruction capabilities, as well as advanced planning and scheduling with AFSCN assets. The automation of these capabilities will allow GPS operators to spend their time optimizing system performance rather than focusing on routine operations.
“As part of establishing the LCS Block 0 baseline, the completion of Exercise 4 demonstrates the capability of OCX to successfully support a GPS-III satellite launch in an information assurance hardened environment,” said Matthew Gilligan, Raytheon vice president and GPS OCX program manager. “Exercise 4 began the instantiation of vital OCX automation capabilities that give operators their time back in order to focus on mission critical activities, one of the important elements of a modernized GPS.”
“Launch Exercise 4 demonstrated the team’s ability to complete nearly 100 percent of the GPS III space vehicle 1 launch and early orbit mission sequence,” said Mark Stewart, vice president for Lockheed Martin’s Navigation Systems mission area. “The findings the team made during this robust launch exercise will help mature the processes, procedures, and tools necessary to enter our rehearsal phase and ultimately the launch and checkout mission.”
GPS III satellites will deliver three times better accuracy, provide up to eight times improved anti-jamming capabilities, and include enhancements that extend spacecraft life to 15 years, 25 percent longer than the newest Block IIF satellites. GPS III will be the first generation of GPS satellite with a new L1C civil signal designed to make it interoperable with other international global navigation satellite systems. The first GPS III satellite is currently undergoing integration and testing, with final space vehicle delivery planned for late 2015.
OCX is being developed in two blocks using a commercial best practice iterative software development process, with seven iterations in Block 1 and one iteration in Block 2. Exercise 4 was conducted using the recently completed Iteration 1.5 software, representing an early delivery of the final software baseline. Exercise 5, scheduled for 2015, will include critical information assurance features needed to support launch of the first GPS III satellite.
